Dak Prescott — Week 1: Eight Deep Throws, None Caught

Seven to seven, 58 seconds left in the second quarter, third and five at the Dallas 36. Dak Prescott threw deep right and Jevon Holland intercepted it at the New York 45. −2.0 expected points added — expected points added is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position — and −6.1 points of win probability, the chance of winning the game after the play against before it, the largest swing on any Cowboys pass or run that counted. 33 seconds later the Giants were in the end zone, and Dallas never got back to even.

The line: 22 completions on 34 throws, a hundred 75 yards, two touchdowns, one interception, no sacks, +10.4 expected points on 34 pass plays. Before halftime it was 10 of 17 for 72 yards; after it, 12 of 17 for a hundred three. The two touchdowns were both short and both to the left: third and one from the one with five 48 left in the half, down seven to nothing, to CeeDee Lamb — one play after a Javonte Williams touchdown had been reversed on review — and first and 10 from the 17 with five 26 left in the game, down 28 to 14, to Williams. The deep ball never landed. Eight throws are labeled deep in the play-by-play, and none was caught: seven incompletions and the interception. He also ran twice, both scrambles, for 14 yards and a first down.

The ball went eight times to Lamb, six to George Pickens, five to Williams, four to Ryan Flournoy, two each to Jake Ferguson and Brevyn Spann-Ford, one each to KaVontae Turpin, Luke Schoonmaker and Jonathan Mingo, and four throws were credited to no receiver, the interception among them. Lamb's eight came out at +5.6 expected points, the most on the team; Flournoy's four were next at +2.5. 17 pass plays before halftime and 17 after, against 12 designed runs before and four after. On third down Prescott threw nine times, completed seven, and converted six; the Cowboys converted eight of 11, the second-best rate among the 30 teams that had played by Sunday night. The offense had seven possessions and 52 snaps, and it did not touch the ball in the last five minutes and 21 seconds.

Back in June the preview leaned underpriced on Prescott — the eighth quarterback at pick 72 after a QB6 finish on top-three accuracy with two alpha receivers — and named two things to watch: the pass volume against a rebuilt Dallas defense, and the Lamb-and-Pickens split. Sunday gave one answer to each. 34 throws is the volume the preview worried a fixed defense would trim, and the defense did not trim it, because it was not fixed: the Giants converted nine of 10 third downs against it. The split was eight targets to six, Lamb's way, with Lamb's eight worth roughly nine times what Pickens's six were. One game does not settle either number. The Cowboys are home to Washington on Sunday the twentieth.

_Data via nflverse._