Jared Goff — Week 7: 303 Yards and a Fumbled Snap

Jared Goff threw well against the Packers and gave away the costliest snap of the game: 22 of 32 for 303 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions, with one sack. Over 33 dropbacks he was worth +9.2 expected points added (EPA), what a play was worth given down, distance and field position, +0.28 per dropback. Completion percentage over expected (CPOE), how often he completed passes against what their difficulty predicted, was -1.0.

The costly one came on the second snap of the third quarter, up 10-7: second and 3 at his own 42, he fumbled the snap and Green Bay recovered, -5.9 EPA and 17 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. The Packers scored five plays later. He answered on the next drive. Down 14-10, first and 10 at his own 34, he threw deep over the middle to Jameson Williams for 30 yards, +1.8 EPA and 8.8 points of win probability, and finished it with a 10-yard touchdown to Williams on second and 9 for 17-14.

The first half was the better one: his throws were worth +8.4 EPA on 18 dropbacks before halftime and +0.8 on 15 after. Inside the Green Bay 20 he completed 3 of 7, and up 17-14 late in the third three straight throws from the 6 fell incomplete, the fourth-down miss for Williams costing 11.2 points of win probability. With the game tied and 2:45 left, second and 8 at his own 27, he hit Sam LaPorta over the middle for 18 yards, and a roughing-the-passer penalty added 15, +2.4 EPA and 14.1 points of win probability. That drive ended in Jake Bates's winning field goal.

The rate matched his season. Through his first five games he was at +0.28 per dropback, +58.5 EPA on 207 dropbacks, with a CPOE of +1.3. The 303 yards were his third-most this season, after 412 against Carolina and 327 at Buffalo.

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_Data via nflverse._