Jared Goff — Week 8: Four Sacks, Then the Winner

Jared Goff had his least productive game of the season against the Vikings and still threw the touchdown that won it: 18 of 25 for 176 yards, a touchdown and an interception, sacked four times. Over 29 dropbacks he was worth -4.2 expected points added (EPA), what a play was worth given down, distance and field position, -0.14 per dropback and his first game this season below zero. His completion percentage over expected (CPOE), how often he completed passes against what their difficulty predicted, was +2.1.

The winner came down 15-12 with 4:40 left. Five runs and a short catch by Sione Vaki had taken Detroit from its own 31 to the Minnesota 7, and on first and 7 Goff threw short left to Jameson Williams for the touchdown: +1.5 EPA and 7.4 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. The extra point made it 19-15. On the last drive, third and 1 at midfield with Minnesota out of timeouts, he ran up the middle for 2 and knelt twice.

The first half was the hard part. All four sacks came before the break, 2.5 of them credited to Andrew Van Ginkel, and his 20 dropbacks came to -5.8 EPA. Down 7-3 in the second quarter, third and 8 at his own 39, he threw short left for Williams and Minnesota intercepted at its 46, -3.3 EPA. His best throw of the half went for nothing: on third and 13 at his 45, a 46-yarder to Williams deep over the middle lost 15 yards to a taunting penalty, and a 24-yard touchdown to Amon-Ra St. Brown on the next snap was overturned on review. That drive ended in a field goal. After halftime he completed 7 of 9 for 66 yards, was not sacked, and was worth +1.6 EPA.

The rate was far under his season. Through Week 7 he was at +0.28 per dropback, +67.7 EPA on 240 dropbacks, with a CPOE of +1.0. The four sacks matched his most in a game this season, from Week 2 at Buffalo, and the 176 yards were his fewest.

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_Data via nflverse._