Jonathan Taylor — Week 3: Twenty-Three Carries, No Touchdown

17 to 16, Texans, a minute 11 left, first and 10 at the Houston 45, one snap after Laquon Treadwell's 20-yard catch. Jonathan Taylor went left guard for five. Houston called timeout with 29 seconds left, and on second and five at the 40 Taylor went around left end and lost a yard. −0.8 expected points added — expected points added is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position — and −12 points of win probability, the chance of winning the game after the play against before it; the Colts' chance went from about 63 percent to about 51. On third and six a catch by Keenan Allen was reviewed and spotted a yard short, and Spencer Shrader kicked a 53-yard field goal with 21 seconds left for Indianapolis's first win.

The line: 23 carries, 68 yards, no touchdown, three first downs, seven of the 23 successful, −4.0 expected points on the carries; three targets, two catches, four yards. The carries went nothing, one, one, one, two, one, six, three, four, four, 11, one, one, five, four, four, one, four, seven, three, nothing, five, −1. 10 of the 23 gained a yard or less. Nine came before halftime for 19 yards, 14 after for 49. The 11 was a run to the Houston six in the third quarter that a holding call on Treadwell brought back; the play-by-play credits Taylor to the spot of the foul at the 19, and the penalty left the Colts at the 29. Another carry was a snap Daniel Jones fumbled, which Taylor picked up at the Indianapolis 39 and ran to the 47. The carry that mattered most was fourth and one at the Houston 48 with three 24 left in the third, up 13 to seven, with an extra player reported as eligible: right tackle for four, +2.3, on a drive that ended in a 37-yard field goal. Two third-down carries, a yard each, neither converted. All three targets came before halftime, thrown a combined 13 yards behind the line: three yards, one yard and an incompletion.

Taylor had 23 of the Colts' 30 designed runs; Seth McGowan had four, Jones two and Tyler Warren one. The one Colts designed run inside the Houston 10 was McGowan's, no gain at the six, on the drive that ended in Allen's touchdown.

Back in June the preview's read on Taylor was a second-place finish among running backs built on a workhorse deployment, and a warning that the carries were the durable part, not last season's 18 rushing touchdowns. Week 1 and Week 2 were 19 24 carries with two touchdowns each. Sunday the carries held and the touchdowns stopped: none, and no carries inside the Houston 10. Week 2's episode flagged a second half of 10 carries for 17 yards; this week turned it around, 14 for 49 after halftime. Three games: 66 carries, 258 yards, four touchdowns. The carries are doing what the preview said they would, and three games settle little about the scoring. Indianapolis faces the Commanders in London on Sunday the fourth.

_Data via nflverse._