Jordan Love — Week 7: Three Fourth Downs, One Pick
2026 NFL Season · Half-PPR Scoring · Monday, Oct 26
Love completed 27 of 45 passes for 274 yards, two touchdowns and an interception against the Lions, and converted three fourth downs through the air, in Green Bay's 20-17 loss at Detroit on a field goal with 1 second left.
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Jordan Love kept Green Bay level against the Lions on fourth down: 27 of 45 for 274 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, with one sack. Over 46 dropbacks he was worth +6.9 expected points added (EPA), what a play was worth given down, distance and field position, +0.15 per dropback. His three fourth-down conversions were worth +13.3 of that, and his other 43 dropbacks came to -6.4.
The first came on the opening drive, scoreless: fourth and 5 at the Detroit 33, he threw deep right to Savion Williams for 27 yards to the 6, +4.4 EPA and 15.6 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. The drive stalled at the 3 and ended in a missed field goal. Down 7-0 late in the first, fourth and 2 at the Detroit 49, he hit Tucker Kraft over the middle for 22, +4.5 EPA, and found Kraft again for the 14-yard touchdown on third and 9. In the second quarter, fourth and 3 at the Detroit 41, he went deep over the middle to Christian Watson for 28 yards, +4.4 EPA; that drive ended on fourth and 4 at the 7, a pass to Matthew Golden for no gain, -3.0 EPA and 12.8 points of win probability. His other touchdown, down 10-7 in the third, was a short pass to Josh Jacobs on third and 6 that Jacobs took 25 yards.
The second half was harder: his 19 dropbacks after halftime were worth -1.4 EPA. The interception came early in the fourth, two snaps after an intentional-grounding penalty: third and 21 at his own 8, deep over the middle for Watson, and Brian Branch caught it at the Detroit 43. Tied 17-17 with 3:30 left, third and 5 at the Detroit 17, his deep throw to the left for Jacobs fell incomplete, -8.6 points of win probability, and the field goal that followed was blocked.
The rate beat his season. Through Week 6 he was at +0.11 per dropback, +26.8 EPA on 240 dropbacks. Completion percentage over expected (CPOE), how often he completed passes against what their difficulty predicted, was -0.5, against -3.6 through Week 6.
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_Data via nflverse._
When Jordan Love's week moves the numbers, you'll know — every episode, in one weekly email.
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