Josh Downs — Week 1: Two Third-Down Catches, Then a Long Silence
2026 NFL Season · Half-PPR Scoring · Monday, Sep 14
Downs converted third and three and third and eight on the Colts' opening drive — twenty-five yards, then twelve — and Jonathan Taylor scored three plays later. After that second catch, with twelve thirty-seven left in the first quarter, Daniel Jones threw twenty-two passes before the next one went to Downs, a deep incompletion with four minutes left in a 41–23 loss to the Ravens.
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Josh Downs was the Colts' third-down receiver for exactly one drive. Third and three at the Indianapolis 42, 14 10 left in the first quarter, no score: Daniel Jones short middle to Downs, eight yards in the air, 25 yards to the Baltimore 33. +2.5 expected points added — expected points added is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position — and +8 points of win probability. Three snaps later, third and eight at the 31, short middle again, 12 yards to the 19, +1.9. Three plays after that Jonathan Taylor scored from the one. Indianapolis converted three third downs all afternoon; Downs had two of them before the game was five minutes old.
Then nothing, for a long time. Between the 12-yard catch at 12 37 of the first quarter and his next target, Jones threw 22 passes and took one sack. The next target was first and 10 at the Baltimore 30 with four minutes left in the fourth, down 41 to 23, deep right, 20 yards in the air, incomplete. The line closes at four targets, two catches, 37 yards, no touchdowns — and +3.4 expected points on the targets, the highest figure on the Colts despite the volume, because both catches were third-down conversions and the one incompletion in between, second and eight from the 31, cost little. He also shows up twice fielding punts with fair catches, and once as the tackler on Roquan Smith's interception return.
Where the ball went instead: six targets each to Alec Pierce and Keenan Allen, five to Tyler Warren, four to Taylor, four to Downs, one each to Ashton Dulin, Andrew Ogletree, Laquon Treadwell and McGowan, and two with no intended receiver. Three of Downs's four targets came before halftime on 19 Colts pass plays; one came after, on 14.
Back in June the preview made no call on Downs: a WR47 finish matched a down year, and which version of the role came back was a coaching decision the show could not price. Sunday gave one drive of the good version and three and a half quarters of the other, and it is fair to say the game got out of hand in between. That is not a verdict on the role; it is the first data point on it, and the number to watch is targets after the first quarter. Indianapolis is at the Chiefs on Sunday night the twentieth.
_Data via nflverse._
When Josh Downs's week moves the numbers, you'll know — every episode, in one weekly email.
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