Kaleb Johnson — Week 4: Thirty-One Yards, Then the Fumble
2026 NFL Season · Half-PPR Scoring · Tuesday, Oct 6
Johnson led the Packers with 8 carries for 42 yards, including a 31-yard run to the Tampa Bay 5 that set up the third-quarter touchdown. On first and goal at the Tampa Bay 3 with 9:13 left, up 17–14, he fumbled, the costliest snap of the game by expected points, in a 17–14 win over the Buccaneers.
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The full read
Green Bay up 17 to 14 on the Buccaneers, nine 13 left, first and goal at the Tampa Bay three. Kaleb Johnson went up the middle, was stopped for no gain, and Smith knocked the ball loose; McCollum recovered for Tampa Bay at the four. −5.9 expected points added — expected points added is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position — the costliest snap of the game by that measure, and −19 points of win probability, the chance of winning the game after the play against before it.
The line: eight carries, 42 yards, one first down, three of the eight successful, −5.9 expected points on the carries, all of it the fumble; the other seven came out even. No targets. The big one came on the first possession of the second half: second and five at the Tampa Bay 36, up 10 to seven, up the middle for 31 yards to the five. +2.5 expected points and 6.9 points of win probability, his first run of 20 yards or more this season. He ran three more to the two, and on the next snap Tucker Kraft caught the touchdown.
The split: Johnson's eight carries led the team, ahead of seven to MarShawn Lloyd and four to Chris Brooks.
Back in June the preview's read on Johnson was written about a running back coming off a quiet rookie year in Pittsburgh. In Green Bay his carries have gone none, eight, four and eight. Four games: 20 carries, 80 yards, one catch, and Sunday's fumble is the first he has lost. The longest run and the costliest snap were both his, in the same game.
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_Data via nflverse._
When Kaleb Johnson's week moves the numbers, you'll know — every episode, in one weekly email.
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