Michael Penix Jr. — Week 6: Five Sacks, Three Touchdowns

Michael Penix Jr. threw three touchdowns against the Bears, but the sacks decided his day: 19 of 33, 225 yards, no interceptions, 5 sacks and -10.6 expected points added (EPA) on 41 dropbacks. EPA is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position. That is -0.26 per dropback; his completion percentage over expected (CPOE), which measures completions against the difficulty of the throws, was -7.3.

The play that ended it came after he had pulled Atlanta back from 31-7. Down 31-23 with 3:01 left, third and 16 at the Atlanta 22, Kyler Gordon sacked him for an 8-yard loss and forced a fumble, and Devin Bush recovered for Chicago, -3.1 EPA. He had also fumbled on a third-quarter sack at his own 2, a ball Atlanta recovered.

From 31-7 he threw touchdowns of 10 and 5 yards to Kyle Pitts and completed both two-point tries, with a 41-yarder to Jahan Dotson setting up the second score. His most valuable throw came in the second quarter: down 14-0 on third and 8 at the Chicago 13, a touchdown to Dotson worth +3.1 EPA and +9.3 points of win probability.

Before the rally, a third-quarter stall cost the most. Down 21-7 in the opening minutes of the third quarter, he took two sacks, then threw incomplete on fourth and 3 at the Chicago 28, -3.3 EPA.

Nothing in his first three games looked like this. In Weeks 3, 4 and 5 he completed 52 of 77 for 719 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception, with 4 sacks, +26.1 EPA on 84 dropbacks, +0.31 per dropback and a +1.1 CPOE.

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_Data via nflverse._