Sam Darnold — Week 7: 257 Yards, No Sacks

Sam Darnold had his most efficient night of the season against the Chiefs: 20 of 28 for 257 yards, a touchdown and an interception, no sacks, and 2 scrambles for 17 yards, in a 20-3 win at home. Over 30 dropbacks he was worth +15.4 expected points added (EPA), what a play was worth given down, distance and field position, +0.51 a dropback. His completion percentage over expected (CPOE), which compares completions with what each throw's difficulty predicts, was +4.0.

The throw that defined it came up 3-0 with 1:49 left in the half. Third and 9 at the Kansas City 28, he went deep left to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who was ruled out of bounds at the 1 until the review gave him the touchdown: +4.64 EPA and 10-0 after the extra point. Earlier on that drive he scrambled for 7 on third and 6, and in the third he ran for 10 on third and 9. Seattle converted 11 of 16 third downs.

The miss came at the goal line. Up 10-0 with 23 seconds left in the half, second and 3 at the Kansas City 3, he threw over the middle for Rashid Shaheed, and Nohl Williams intercepted in the end zone and returned it 65 yards: -5.61 EPA and -11.5 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win.

Against his own season it was a turn. Through Week 6 he had -17.0 EPA on 166 dropbacks, -0.10 a dropback, with a CPOE of -0.1, and his best game by that rate had been +0.12 against Washington in Week 3. He has now thrown an interception in each of his five games since Week 3.

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_Data via nflverse._