Tetairoa McMillan — Week 1: Eight Targets, a Fumble, and Fourth and Three
2026 NFL Season · Half-PPR Scoring · Monday, Sep 14
McMillan was thrown to eight times — a hundred nineteen air yards, second on the Panthers in targets to Jalen Coker's nine — and caught five for seventy-five, but the twenty-one-yard catch that opened the fourth quarter was knocked loose at the Chicago forty-one and recovered by the Bears, and the fourth-and-three deep shot his way with fifty-five seconds left in the third fell incomplete a snap before Kyle Monangai's sixty-one-yard touchdown. Minus two point five expected points on the eight targets in a 59–37 loss to the Bears.
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The first play of the fourth quarter was Tetairoa McMillan's longest catch and his worst play. First and 10 at the Carolina 38, down 45 to 31, Bryce Young deep middle, 21 yards to the Chicago 41 — then the ball came out, Chicago recovered at the 39, and the replay official upheld the ruling. −3.8 expected points added, which is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position, and 6.1 points of win probability. Three Carolina snaps earlier, with 55 seconds left in the third and the Panthers down seven, it had been fourth and three at the Chicago 39, and the deep left throw to McMillan, 22 yards in the air, had fallen incomplete — −2.5 expected points, 5.4 points of win probability — and Monangai went 61 yards on the next play. Two throws to McMillan, −6.3 expected points between them, and the game went from one score to two.
The line: eight targets, five catches, 75 yards, no touchdowns, a hundred 19 air yards, −2.5 expected points on the targets, none on third down. Two targets before halftime and six after, four of them in the fourth. The catches: 14 on first and 10 at the Chicago 21 in the second quarter, on the drive Young finished with a scramble; seven with 12 seconds left in the third; the 21; and 15 18 on consecutive snaps in the fourth, the 18 to the Chicago one. From the one, a touchdown throw was wiped out by offensive pass interference on Jalen Coker, who caught the score himself two snaps later. The three incompletions were a short one in the second quarter, the fourth-down throw, and a deep left ball in the fourth, 35 yards in the air.
He was the second option by volume and the most expensive one by expected points. Coker's nine targets came out at +12.5, McMillan's eight at −2.5; Tommy Tremble had five, Chuba Hubbard three. Young had 39 pass plays, 18 before halftime and 21 after; six of McMillan's eight targets came after.
Back in June the preview called McMillan the year-two premium — a rookie WR15 across 17 games, and the question was whether the role rested on target volume or on touchdowns and efficiency. Sunday the volume was there, eight targets and a hundred 19 air yards, and the production was not: no score, a fumble, and Coker's day next to his. One game is not a role, and it is also not nothing. Carolina is at the Falcons on Sunday the twentieth. The number to watch is whether the targets stay at eight when Coker's do too.
_Data via nflverse._
When Tetairoa McMillan's week moves the numbers, you'll know — every episode, in one weekly email.
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