Denver Broncos expected points added per play, 2026

From the Broncos weekly

First and goal at the Rams two, fifty-six seconds left, Denver down twenty-six to twenty-three. Bo Nix threw incomplete for Nate Adkins. On second down Nix went around right end and was ruled in, and replay put the ball at the one. After an encroachment flag on the Rams, on third and one, Nix went up the middle for the touchdown with forty-eight seconds left. Twenty points of win probability on one snap — win probability being the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment. Denver beat the Rams thirty to twenty-six on Sunday night at home, after trailing sixteen to nothing at halftime, and after the model had it at nine percent when its first drive of the third quarter ended in a punt. And it won while being outgained four hundred eighty-two net yards to two hundred fifty-seven. Two hundred twenty-five yards is the widest margin by which any team has been outgained and still won in the forty-seven games played so far this season.