Cardinals 26, Chargers 14 — Week 1: Two Takeaways and a Blocked Punt

Arizona walked into SoFi Stadium on Sunday afternoon and never trailed. 26 to 14, final, and the Chargers did not hold a lead for one second of the 60 minutes. The score was tied for 18 and a half minutes; Arizona led for the other 41 and a half. And the number that explains it is on the defensive side: the Chargers' offense finished the day at −12 expected points across 51 pass and rush plays. Expected points added is what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position. On defense a big negative number is the good direction, and −12 allowed is the fifth-best figure of the 28 teams whose games were in the books by Sunday evening.

Start with the run defense, because that is where it was best. The Chargers ran 21 rushing plays for 81 yards, and those plays cost them seven expected points. Only one defense of the 28 allowed less per rushing play. Seven of the 21 were successful, meaning they gained what the situation asked for, a rate of 33 percent that sits among the seven best of the week. The play that turned the game lived here. Tied seven to seven, second and 10 at the Arizona 30 with 13 37 left in the half, Omarion Hampton went around left end, Andrew Wingard met him for a loss of one, the ball came out, and Will Johnson recovered at the Arizona 34. The Chargers had just gained 26 yards on two snaps and were in field-goal range. 13 points of win probability gone on one tackle. Arizona took the ball 11 plays and 57 yards over six and a half minutes to a 27-yard field goal, 10 to seven, and the game was never tied again.

The pass defense was the second-best unit of the afternoon rather than the best, and that is still good. 30 pass plays for the Chargers, 209 passing yards, one touchdown, one interception, −6 expected points allowed, 13 of the 30 successful. Ninth of the 28 in expected points allowed per pass play. Three sacks for 22 yards, and the first of them was the stop of the day: up 10 to seven with two minutes left in the half, the Chargers had fourth and three at the Arizona three, having started that series first and goal at the seven, and Dante Stills sacked Justin Herbert for a loss of 10. Turnover on downs, 12 points of win probability, and Arizona then went 61 yards in a minute 55 for a 44-yard field goal as the half ran out. The Chargers converted two third downs all day, and both conversions were touchdowns; they were oh for six on the third downs that would merely have kept a drive alive. The second takeaway came with nine 50 left in the game, Arizona up 23 to 14: Herbert threw deep right for Derius Davis from the Chargers' 40, and Wingard intercepted at the Arizona five.

The offense was efficient without being explosive. 38 pass plays, 277 passing yards, one touchdown, no interceptions, +9 expected points. 21 of the 38 were successful, a 55 percent rate that is fourth-best of the 28 teams, and seventh in expected points per pass play. The longest play of the game was Jacoby Brissett deep left to Marvin Harrison Junior for 33 yards, second and eight from the Arizona 12 with 11 27 left in the third quarter, and it came on the second snap of a nine-play, 75-yard drive that ended in a field goal. That is the shape of the day: five trips inside the Chargers' 20 produced two touchdowns and three field goals. The first touchdown was the opening drive, 11 plays and 65 yards over six minutes 11, Jeremiyah Love around left end from the five on second and five. The run game as a whole was ordinary: 31 rushing plays, a hundred 19 yards, one touchdown, roughly zero expected points added, and 13 of the 31 successful, seventeenth of the 28. After halftime the rushing unit went 16 plays for 51 yards and −4 expected points. The offense as a whole produced +11 expected points in the first half and roughly −1 in the second, and the reason that did not matter is the other side of the ball.

The biggest swing of the game was not a turnover at all. Arizona up 16 to 14, 12 28 left, the Chargers punting on fourth and 11 from their own 19: Simi Fehoko blocked it, and Alec Ingold recovered for the Chargers at their own three, short of the line to gain. 15 points of win probability, the largest swing on either side all afternoon. Two plays later, second and three, Brissett hit Trey McBride short left for the touchdown, 23 to 14, with 11 48 to play.

Two things in the ledger that were not good. Arizona was flagged eight times for a hundred 11 yards, and one of those flags built the Chargers' second touchdown by itself: after a Chad Ryland kickoff went out of bounds, first and 10 at the Chargers' 40 with seven 25 left in the third, Max Melton was flagged for 48 yards of pass interference on a deep ball to Tre Harris, and three snaps later Ladd McConkey scored from the eight. 16 to 14, the closest the Chargers got after halftime. And Ryland missed a 54-yarder off the right upright early in the second quarter, his only miss in five field-goal tries. Arizona never went for it on fourth down.

Now the part where a Week 1 episode has to be honest about what it is. The ranks in this episode are against the 28 teams that had played by Sunday evening, not the whole league, and one game is one game. What there is, is last year. In 2025 this team went three and 14. The offense finished 20-third in the league in expected points per play, seventeenth through the air, 20-fourth on the ground. The defense finished 20-seventh in expected points allowed per play and 20-ninth in the rate of plays it allowed to succeed, and it took the ball away 19 times, eighteenth in the league. On Sunday that defense held an opponent to 14 points, −12 expected points and 33 percent success on the ground, and it took the ball away twice. If you want one sentence out of this: the unit that ranked 20-ninth last year was the best unit on the field, and one afternoon against one offense does not settle whether that repeats.

Arizona is home to Seattle next Sunday. Watch the run defense first, because that is the claim this game made, and watch whether the offense can finish drives inside the 20.

That's your Cardinals — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Cardinals show wherever you're listening, so next week's recap lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

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_Data via nflverse._