Cardinals 7, Seahawks 31 — Week 2: Tied at the Half, Scoreless After

Arizona's longest completion on Sunday gained nine yards. It reached nine five times and never passed it. 30 pass plays produced 95 passing yards, the fewest of the 28 teams that have played this week, and the offense finished with a hundred 65 total yards, also the fewest so far this week. A week ago, at the Chargers, this same offense gained 396. The first two and a half minutes told it. The opening kickoff came back 40 yards to the Arizona 43, the first snap was nine yards to Trey McBride, and then second and one was an incompletion, third and one at the Seattle 48 was a run to left tackle that lost a yard, and the Cardinals punted. Two Seattle snaps later, second and six from the Seahawks' 18, Drew Lock hit Jaxon Smith-Njigba deep right for 82 yards and a touchdown, a 20-point swing in win probability. Arizona lost 31 to seven at home. It was seven to seven at halftime, the Cardinals did not score again, and they never led. By the win probability model their best moment was about a 60 percent chance.

The passing game is the contradiction. Those 30 pass plays were worth −8.1 expected points added — expected points added is what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, so that is eight points of value handed back. Per play that is 20-fifth of the 28 teams that have played this week. Last week 38 pass plays were worth +9, ninth in the league. At the rate Arizona threw last season, when it ranked seventeenth, 30 plays would have come out about even. A third of the pass plays were successful, 20-third so far this week. Both sacks came on third down and both lost seven. The interception was third and seven from the Arizona 23, down 14 to seven with 11 39 left in the third quarter: Jacoby Brissett deep left for Michael Wilson, Julian Love at the Arizona 44, and Seattle kicked a field goal off it.

Third and short was worse than third and long. Arizona converted three of 12 third downs, 20-fifth of the 28 teams that have played this week, with only Minnesota, Pittsburgh and Green Bay below it. On third downs of one or two yards it went zero for three: the run that lost one on the opening drive, an incompletion to McBride on third and two from its own 11, and a sack on third and two in the fourth quarter. There was also the possession after the defense's fumble recovery, tied at seven: a nine-yard completion, then second and one at the Seattle 44, a run that lost three, an incompletion on third and four, and a punt from the Seattle 47. Four three-and-outs, which only Green Bay and Pittsburgh have exceeded this week. Seven punts. 47 pass and rush plays to Seattle's 67.

The run game never got a second half. 17 rush plays, the fewest of any team so far this week, for 70 yards and −7.2 expected points, 20-second per play of the 28. 29 percent of them were successful, 20-third so far this week. It was 13 runs for 42 yards before halftime and four runs after it, and two of those four were the last two snaps of the game, Knight for 18 six with the score 31 to seven.

The one drive that worked took help. Down seven to nothing, third and five at the Seattle 35, an incompletion became a first down on a pass interference flag. Runs of eight and nine reached the 10. On third and nine Brissett scrambled left for seven, and on the first snap of the second quarter, fourth and two from the two, he found McBride short left for the touchdown. 14 points of win probability, the second-largest swing of the game.

The defense gave this team a first half. Zaven Collins forced and recovered a fumble at the Arizona 47 with the game tied. Then came the stand. Seattle had first and goal at the six with two 25 left in the half and ran four times: two yards, two yards, one yard, and on fourth and one from the one, with two extra linemen in, Andrew Wingard stopped it for a loss of one. 12 points of win probability, and seven to seven at the break. Against the run the numbers split. Seattle's 40 rush plays were worth −7.1 expected points — on defense a negative number is the good direction — which is twelfth per play and eighth in total so far this week, and 22 of the 40 were held to three yards or fewer. But the 40 gained a hundred 62 yards, and only Dallas and Detroit have allowed more this week.

The pass defense is where it came apart. 27 Seattle pass plays were worth +16.1 expected points, 20-seventh per play of the 28 teams that have played this week; only Miami was worse. At the rate this defense allowed last season, those 27 plays would have been worth about +4. The 82-yarder was 6.9 of it. Two more touchdowns came on third down inside the 15: third and seven from the seven, third and six from the 12, both short middle to Smith-Njigba. The defense got seven stops on 13 third downs, tied for twentieth so far this week, and Seattle scored on all four of its second-half possessions. Flags fed it. Six accepted penalties, including 15 yards for unnecessary roughness on punt coverage that put Seattle at the Arizona 31, and a 16-yard pass interference call on second and five, with the third touchdown coming on the third snap after it.

And the second half began with a forced fumble that cost Arizona 10 points of win probability. Elijah Higgins knocked the kickoff loose at the Seattle 28. Seattle's Chazz Surratt picked it up at the 26 and ran 37 yards to the Arizona 37. An encroachment flag and a 25-yard run later it was first and goal, and three snaps after that it was 14 to seven.

Now the thread, for anyone joining this week. Last season Arizona went three and 14. By expected points per play the pass defense ranked 20-seventh in the league, the run game 20-eighth, the run defense 20-first and the passing offense seventeenth, and the defense's third-down stop rate sat in the league's bottom six. Then came Week 1: a 26 to 14 win at the Chargers, the ninth-ranked passing game of the week, the second-ranked run defense, six of 13 on third down, and two takeaways without a giveaway. That game argued with last season. This one agreed with it. The pass defense was 20-seventh of the 28 teams that have played this week, after finishing 20-seventh of 32 a year ago, against a Seattle team that went 14 three and had last season's top-ranked run defense and third-down defense. Two games do not settle which Arizona this is. One looked new, and one looked like last year.

Arizona is at San Francisco next Sunday. The 49ers' passing game has been the best of the 28 teams that have played this week by expected points per play, so watch the pass defense first, and watch third and short.

That's your Cardinals — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Cardinals show wherever you're listening, so next week's recap lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

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_Data via nflverse._