Cardinals, Week 2 — What Repeats: Four Deep Throws, None Catchable

Last week the charters marked 84 percent of Jacoby Brissett's throws catchable, fifth-highest in the league, and that was the headline of this show. This week it was 18 of 28, 64 percent, 20-seventh of the 32 teams this week against a median of 73. Brissett's own figure across all of last season was 68. So the best thing about Week 1 did not repeat, and the miss has a specific shape. He threw four balls 15 or more yards downfield. The charters marked none of the four catchable, and the longest of them, 21 yards in the air on third and seven, was the interception. Five of the 10 uncatchable throws went toward Michael Wilson, who was targeted seven times and caught two. Trey McBride, by contrast, saw nine catchable balls on his 10 targets. The Recap said no completion went longer than nine yards. The charting says the throws that could have were not on target.

The rest of the ball charting points the same way. Only one of the 28 throws was contested — a receiver and a defender arriving together — which is four percent, 20-ninth of the 32 teams this week. Last week it was 16 percent, and across all of last season Brissett's contested rate was 18. So this was not a quarterback forcing balls into traffic. It was short throws that were catchable and longer ones that were not. The one interception-worthy ball in 28 is four percent, eighth-highest this week where first is the most reckless; last season his rate was two percent, 10 of 488. No drops on 18 catchable balls, one of eight teams at zero, a week after three drops on 31. One throwaway. He left the pocket on four of his 31 dropbacks, and no sack was charted as his fault. Seattle sent five or more rushers on six of 31 Arizona dropbacks, 19 percent, thirtieth of the 32 this week and about where this offense's 21 percent sat last season.

Now the part that has repeated, and it is a scheme choice rather than a result. Arizona called play-action on four of 31 dropbacks, 13 percent, tied with Jacksonville for thirtieth of the 32 teams this week. Last week it was five of 39, also 13 percent, also thirtieth. Across all of last season this offense ran play-action on 25 percent of dropbacks, and a hundred 19 of Brissett's 488 charted throws came off a fake. Two games, two opponents, half the old rate both times. This week Brissett's four play-action throws went one for nine yards, and the other 24 went 16 for 86. Screens follow the same line: one on 31 dropbacks, three percent, tied with Jacksonville for 20-seventh, after five percent last week and eight across last season. Motion goes the other way, and it has held too: 32 of 64 charted plays, 50 percent, sixteenth this week, after 51 last week, against 35 percent all last season. No-huddle on four percent of snaps, after six last week and 12 last year. Less fake, fewer screens, far more movement before the snap, twice.

The run game faced a fuller box than it is used to, and that has repeated in a smaller way. Seattle showed a light box on seven of Arizona's 16 designed runs, 44 percent, sixteenth this week. Last week the Chargers did it on 57 percent. Last season this offense saw six or fewer in the box on 69 percent of its designed runs. The 16 gained 63 yards, just under four a carry, which is almost exactly last season's rate. The seven runs into a light box gained 15 of those yards.

The defense went further than any other this week. Arizona put six or fewer in the box on three of Seattle's 40 designed runs, seven and a half percent, the lowest share of the 32 teams this week. 35 of the 40 went into a seven-man box and two into eight. Last week this defense showed the Chargers a light box on 69 percent of their designed runs, fourth-highest in the league, and across last season it was 58. So the loaded box was new this week rather than a habit, and Seattle still gained more per carry than the league median. Seattle ran those 40 for a hundred 62 yards, just over four a carry, twelfth-highest per carry allowed of the 32 teams this week, when the Chargers managed 52 on 16. Five or more rushers on seven of 27 Seattle dropbacks, 26 percent, 20-second this week, against 27 and a half percent last season and 17 last week.

And here is the hole that has now shown up twice. Seattle ran play-action on eight of 27 dropbacks, 30 percent, and Drew Lock completed all eight throws off it for 71 yards. Last week Justin Herbert went six for seven off play-action for a hundred yards. Across two games, quarterbacks are 14 of 15 on play-action against this defense. The rest of Lock's throwing was clean too: 21 of Seattle's 26 throws catchable, 81 percent, sixth-highest this week, against the 72 percent opponents managed against this defense last season. Two contested, eight percent, after 26 percent last week, the second-highest share any defense got that week. None of the 26 was interception-worthy. Seattle also ran four screens on 27 dropbacks, 15 percent, when opponents screened on five percent against this defense last season.

The stat lines have settled, so here they are, scored half-PPR. McBride led Arizona with 14.1: eight catches on 10 targets for 41 and the touchdown. Brissett, six and a half, 17 of 28 for 95, one touchdown, one interception. Jeremiyah Love, six: nine carries for 29 three catches for 16. Michael Wilson two catches for 18 on seven targets; Kendrick Bourne two for 11. Marvin Harrison Junior was targeted once and did not catch it. For Seattle, Jaxon Smith-Njigba scored 38 on nine catches, 11 targets, a hundred 55 yards and three touchdowns; Lock 21.4 on 19 of 26 for 235 three scores; Emanuel Wilson 21 carries for 92.

One note on what these comparisons mean. Until Week 3 is done, this show measures Arizona against last season, because two games are not a baseline. Last season was a different roster, a year ago, so the comparison flags what is unusual, not what is settled. Last week is one game and we call it last week. Around Week 4 the show starts measuring this team against its own recent games.

What repeated, then. Play-action at half last season's rate, thirtieth both weeks. Fewer screens both weeks. Motion around half of all plays both weeks, against about a third last season. A fuller box against the run game than last year, both weeks. And a defense that has allowed 14 completions on 15 play-action throws. What reversed: Brissett's catchable rate, fifth to 20-seventh; the defense's box, from light on seven runs in 10 to light on fewer than one in 10; and its contested balls, from 26 percent to eight. Two games are not a verdict.

The thread, for anyone new. Arizona went three and 14 last season. It won 26 to 14 at the Chargers in Week 1 and lost 31 to seven at home to Seattle on Sunday. The notebook, updated: the offense's scheme is new and has held for two weeks, and the passing game's accuracy has not. Whether Brissett's longer throws start landing is the question that decides which of these two games was the real one. Arizona is at San Francisco next. Watch the throws past 15 yards, and watch what happens when the other side fakes the handoff.

That's your Cardinals — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Cardinals show wherever you're listening, so next week's recap lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

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_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._