Cardinals 30, 49ers 36 — Week 3: Thirty Points, No Gain Over Nineteen

Fourth and two at the San Francisco 20, 13 38 left in the game, Arizona down 23 to 13. Jacoby Brissett threw deep left for Trey McBride, the pass fell incomplete, and a 19-yard pass interference penalty on the 49ers put the ball at the one. Win probability, the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment, moved 13 points toward Arizona, more than on any other Cardinals snap all day. By expected points added, what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth, it was +3.8. Two plays later Brissett threw to Jeremiyah Love for a one-yard touchdown, and it was 23 to 20. Arizona would get within two before the end. It never got ahead. The Cardinals lost 36 to 30 at San Francisco, never led at any point, and after the 49ers' first touchdown their chance of winning never rose above about 31 percent.

Here is the shape of the Arizona offense. 53 pass plays and 27 rush plays, and not one gained more than 19 yards. San Francisco had five pass plays of 20 yards or more, counting the lateral. Arizona scored 30 anyway, by moving the chains: nine of 18 on third down, 50 percent, tied for eighth of the 28 teams that have played this week. Three times it went for it on fourth down and three times it got a first down, one of them by that penalty. Third and short was the engine, five of six at one or two yards to go. Third and long was the wall, one of nine at seven or more.

The passing game produced +11.2 expected points on those 53 plays, sixth of the 28 teams that have played so far this week by total, and more than any passing game Arizona had in all of last season, when its best was +7. At the rate it passed over the first two weeks, those same 53 plays would have been worth less than one point. At last season's rate, when the passing game ranked seventeenth, about zero. 51 percent were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Two sacks taken, no interceptions, and both passing touchdowns came from the five or closer.

The drive that made it a two-point game is the whole offense in one piece. Down 29 to 20, eight 42 left, Brissett was sacked for a loss of eight on the first snap. Then third and 11 from the Arizona 31, and Brissett to Marvin Harrison Junior for 19 yards, the longest gain Arizona had all day. Third and one, Brissett up the middle for two. Third and one again, Kendrick Bourne for 14 to the San Francisco 16. Third and two, McBride for four to the four. On second and one Brissett went in himself from the one with two 55 left. 14 plays, four third-down conversions, almost six minutes, and 29 to 27 after the kick.

The run game opens on its success rate, because it is the number that moved furthest from the first two weeks. 59 percent of 27 rush plays were successful, fourth of the 28 teams that have played this week, after 42 percent in Week 1 and 29 in Week 2. 93 yards, one touchdown, +2.3 expected points. At the rate of the first two weeks those carries would have been worth about −3 and a half. At last season's rate, when the run game ranked in the league's bottom six, about −1 and a half. Arizona's best run game of last season was worth +2.6, so Sunday came within a few tenths of it. No run went longer than eight yards.

The pass defense is where the game went. 27 San Francisco pass plays, +22.9 expected points allowed. On defense a positive number is the bad direction, and this is the worst of the 28 teams that have played this week, by total and per play. Of the 92 team games played this season, only one pass defense has done worse: Miami's, against these same 49ers, a week ago. At the rate this defense allowed over the first two weeks, those 27 plays would have been worth about +5. At last season's rate, when it ranked 20-seventh, about +4. 297 yards, four touchdowns, no sacks, no interceptions. Twice in the first quarter the defense had San Francisco at third and 12, and twice it lost. The first, at the San Francisco 18 with eight 40 left and nothing on the board, was Brock Purdy short left to Mike Evans for two and a lateral to Deebo Samuel for the other 80, a touchdown and 20 points of win probability, the biggest swing of the game. The second, from the San Francisco 34 with one 27 left, went 26 yards to Jordan Watkins, and on the first snap of the second quarter Evans caught a 23-yard touchdown. 14 to nothing.

The run defense allowed a hundred 41 yards on 22 rush plays and +1.1 expected points. At the rate of the first two weeks those carries would have been worth about −5, and in Week 1 this run defense ranked second in the league. The costliest stretch came right after Arizona had closed to 23 to 20: runs of 10, nine, nine and 11 yards in a row, from the San Francisco 46 to the Arizona 15. Three snaps later a roughing-the-passer penalty on third and six at the 11 turned an incompletion into a first down at the five, and after a San Francisco formation penalty, George Kittle caught a 10-yard touchdown. On third down San Francisco converted five of eight, and Arizona's stop rate was second-worst of the 28 teams to play this week. Inside the 20 the 49ers scored touchdowns on three of eight snaps.

The best break Arizona got came from the kicking game. Down 23 to 13, 41 seconds left in the third quarter, the Cardinals punted from their own 24 after three straight incompletions. The punt was muffed at the San Francisco 30 and Arizona recovered at the 28: +6 expected points and 11 and a half points of win probability. That drive became the fourth-down penalty and the Love touchdown. From 23 to six early in the third quarter, Arizona outscored San Francisco 24 to 13. Chad Ryland made all three field goals, from 26, 41 49 yards. 10 drives: three touchdowns, three field goals, four punts counting the muffed one, and no turnovers.

For anyone new to this show, here is where that sits. Last season Arizona went three and 14, with a passing game seventeenth by expected points per play, a run game in the bottom six, a pass defense 20-seventh, a run defense in the bottom half and a third-down defense 20-ninth. Week 1 was a 26 to 14 win at the Chargers, built on defense: the run defense ranked second of 32 and the pass defense tenth. Week 2 was a 31 to seven loss at home to Seattle, with a hundred 51 total yards, fewest of any team that week, and a pass defense that ranked 30-first. Sunday turned the offense back up, its best total by expected points of the three games. The pass defense went the other way again: 30-first of 32 in Week 2, last of 28 this week. Three games do not settle much. But the unit that ranked 20-seventh last season has now been near the bottom two weeks running, and an offense that has found a way to move without a big play has not yet been able to make up for it.

Arizona is at the New York Giants on Sunday, October fourth.

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_Data via nflverse._