Cardinals, Week 3 — What Repeats: The Deep Throws Landed

Last week this show ended on one question: would Jacoby Brissett's throws past 15 yards start landing. Against the 49ers he threw nine balls 15 or more yards downfield. The charters marked five of the nine catchable, and four of them were caught, for 72 yards. None of those catches went longer than 19 yards, which the Recap covered, but the ball was where it needed to be. A week earlier it was four deep throws and none of them catchable. The whole line moved with them. 41 of Brissett's 51 throws were charted catchable. That is 80 percent, eighth of the 32 teams this week, against a median of 69. Week 1 he was at 84 percent, fifth in the league. Week 2 he was at 64, 20-seventh. Across all of last season his rate was 69. So the accuracy that disappeared against Seattle came back, and it came back above last year's level.

The rest of the ball charting reads like a clean afternoon. Nine of the 51 throws were contested, a receiver and a defender arriving together, 18 percent, about the 17 this offense had across last season. Not one of the 51 was interception-worthy, and Arizona was one of nine offenses at zero this week. Last season Brissett threw nine interception-worthy balls in 484 charted throws. One drop on 41 catchable balls, one throwaway. Michael Wilson was targeted 17 times, 13 of those throws were charted catchable, and he caught 11 for 89 yards and a touchdown. Last week half the uncatchable throws had gone his way. Trey McBride saw nine catchable balls on 11 targets and caught all nine for 75 yards. Marvin Harrison Junior caught all three of the catchable balls thrown to him, on five targets, for 40 yards.

The pass rush did not get to him either. San Francisco sent five or more pass rushers on 13 of Arizona's 53 dropbacks, 25 percent. Against those 13, Brissett completed 10 throws for 69 yards and was never sacked. The two sacks he did take came against a four-man rush, and neither was charted as the quarterback's fault.

The scheme moved a little, and in one direction. Arizona used play-action on 10 of 53 dropbacks, 19 percent, 20-sixth this week. In Weeks 1 and 2 it was 13 percent both times, thirtieth in the league and then tied for thirtieth. Last season it was 25 percent, so Sunday was more than the first two weeks and still short of last year. Brissett completed seven of his eight play-action throws. Screens came back to last year's level, four on 53 dropbacks. Motion held for a third straight week, on 52 of a hundred five charted plays, 50 percent, twelfth this week. Last season it was 35 percent. And the no-huddle rate jumped to 14 percent of snaps, fourth-highest in the league this week, after six and four the first two weeks. Arizona never led, so much of that was the clock talking.

The run game kept seeing fuller boxes. San Francisco showed six or fewer in the box on 11 of Arizona's 27 designed runs, 41 percent, seventeenth this week. Week 1 it was 57 percent, Week 2 44, so the share has dropped each week. Last season it was 69. Every box Arizona ran into on Sunday had exactly six or seven defenders in it. The 11 runs into six gained 53 yards, nearly five a carry. The 16 into seven gained 40, two and a half a carry. Jeremiyah Love carried 21 times for 90 yards, and no run all day went longer than eight yards. 3.4 yards per designed run is 20-first this week, against about four last season.

Now the defense, where the biggest reversal of the week lives. Against Seattle this defense put six or fewer in the box on three of 40 designed runs, the lowest share in the league that week. Against San Francisco it showed a light box on 18 of 21 designed runs. That is 86 percent, second of 32 defenses this week, behind only Cleveland. Week 1 it was 69 percent, fourth. Last season it was 58. So the loaded box was one week, not a habit, and the light one came with a bill. San Francisco gained a hundred six yards on those 21 designed runs, 5.1 a carry, the fifth-most per carry any defense allowed this week. In Week 1 this defense allowed three and a quarter a carry, and in Week 2 four. Last season it allowed 4.7. The 18 runs into the light box gained 91 of the hundred six.

The pass defense is stranger, and the honest read is two true things. By the charting Arizona made Brock Purdy's throws hard. 16 of his 27 were catchable, 59 percent, the third-lowest rate any defense allowed this week. Seven of the 27 were contested, 26 percent, the sixth-highest share any defense forced. Last season opponents' throws were catchable 73 percent of the time and contested 16. Then the result: 297 yards on 15 completions, nearly 20 yards a catch. One interception-worthy ball forced, no interception. Arizona sent five or more rushers on seven of San Francisco's 28 dropbacks, and Purdy completed five of the seven for a hundred 57 yards, the lateral play included. Both first-quarter third-and-twelves came against a five-man rush, and so did the 20-yard touchdown to George Kittle that decided it. And the play-action hole from the first two weeks barely got tested. San Francisco faked the handoff on four of 28 dropbacks, the third-lowest rate any defense faced this week, and Purdy completed two of the four for 31 yards. Through three games quarterbacks are 16 of 19 on play-action against this defense.

The stat lines have settled, so here they are, scored half-PPR. Brissett, 25.6: 38 of 52 for 282 touchdowns, +4 carries for four yards and the one-yard score. Wilson, 20.4: 11 catches on 17 targets for 89 and a touchdown. Love, 19.4: 21 carries for 90, five catches for 19 and the touchdown. McBride, 12 even: nine of 11 for 75. Harrison, five and a half. For San Francisco, Purdy scored 31.3 on 15 of 27 for 297 four touchdowns. Kittle, 23.2, six catches for 82 two scores. Deebo Samuel, 15.4, most of it from 80 receiving yards and a touchdown on the lateral, without a single reception.

One line on the yardstick. Through this week every comparison in this show is to last season, a different roster. From next week the comparison becomes this team's own three games.

For anyone new, here is the thread. Arizona went three and 14 last season. This year it beat the Chargers 26 to 14, lost to Seattle 31 to seven, and lost at San Francisco 36 to 30, so it is one and two. Last week's notebook said the offense's scheme was new and had held, and the passing game's accuracy had not. Half of that broke, in the good direction: the accuracy came back, and the deep throws were catchable. Motion held for a third week, and play-action rose but stayed below last year. The defense's stacked box turned out to be a one-week plan, and the light one that replaced it gave up five a carry. Arizona is at the Giants next. Watch whether Brissett's catchable rate holds a second week, and which box this defense shows.

That's your Cardinals — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Cardinals show wherever you're listening, so next week's recap lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

And if you play fantasy, there's a Muffed show built around your exact roster — free at muffed.ai.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._