Cardinals 24, Giants 36 — Week 4: Fourth and Four, Ninety-Eight Back

Fourth and four at the Giants four, 11 seconds left, Arizona down 30 to 24 with its last timeout just spent. A touchdown and the kick would have won it. The Cardinals had driven 63 yards in under two minutes to get there, the last 18 on a pass interference flag against Banks on third and six, and then Jacoby Brissett threw three straight incompletions from the four. On fourth down he threw short left for Michael Wilson, and Banks intercepted at the two and ran 98 yards the other way for a touchdown. By win probability, the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment, Arizona was at 22 percent before the snap. By expected points added, what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position against what that situation was already worth, it was −9 and a half, the costliest snap of the game. The Cardinals lost 36 to 24 in New York.

The passing game was Muffed, and the number says why. 37 pass plays, a count that includes two sacks, were worth −18.2 expected points. Per play that is minus point five, against plus point one across the first three weeks. Brissett completed 21 of 35 for 166 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions; in the first three games combined he had thrown one. The charting shows what changed. The Giants sent five or more pass rushers on 21 of Brissett's 39 dropbacks, 54 percent. Over the first three weeks Arizona saw that on 23 percent. His throws were catchable 22 times in 35, 63 percent, 20-third of the 30 offenses charted this week, after 78 percent across the first three weeks. 12 of the 35 were contested, a receiver and a defender arriving together: 34 percent, against 14 before Sunday. The charters marked two of his throws interception-worthy, a ball a defender should have caught, and charged both sacks to him. Across the first three weeks they had marked two such throws on a hundred 16 and charged him with no sacks at all. The interception that flipped the first half came on third and two at the Arizona 35, three 15 left in the second quarter, Arizona up 14 to 12. Short left for Wilson, Reese picked it off and returned it to the Arizona 26, and Arizona's chance of winning fell from about 56 percent to 35. Two snaps later Malik Nabers caught a 25-yard touchdown and the Giants led for the first time.

It had started clean. Eight plays on the opening drive, finished by Brissett to Marvin Harrison short left for a 12-yard touchdown on first and 10. Trey McBride was thrown to 12 times and caught seven for 31 yards, without a first down. Wilson drew 13 targets and caught seven for 95; two of the three interceptions were thrown his way.

The run game opens on its success rate, because it was the unit that worked: half of Arizona's 26 rush plays were successful, for 123 yards and +2.4 expected points. Per play, plus point one, against slightly below zero over the first three weeks. Tyler Allgeier had eight carries for 42 yards, and the second touchdown drive was his: seven, nine, and then 22 yards off left tackle on first and 10 from the Giants 22, 14 to three with three 12 left in the first quarter. Jeremiyah Love carried 14 times for 63, the longest a 16-yarder on the opening drive. The Giants mostly kept seven or more in the box, showing six or fewer on eight of Arizona's 24 designed runs, 33 percent, against 48 percent of Arizona's runs over the first three weeks. The designed runs still went for 4.8 yards apiece, up from 3.6 before Sunday. The catch is the count. Nine of the runs came in the first quarter, and three in the fourth, with Arizona chasing the game.

The pass defense held the rate down and still lost the big ones. 33 Giants pass plays were worth +4.8 expected points to New York; on defense a positive number is the bad direction, but per play that is plus point one, against plus point four allowed over the first three weeks. Four sacks, by Sweat, Nolen, Robinson and Collins, all four charged to the quarterback by the charters, and two interceptions. Burke's came with 32 seconds left in the half, short middle at the Arizona 25, and set up Chad Ryland's 60-yard field goal as the half ended. Baker's came on third and 13 early in the third, a deep throw returned 22 yards, and Arizona scored on the drive it set up. Jameis Winston's two interception-worthy throws in 29 were seven percent, against under three percent for quarterbacks facing this defense before Sunday. Arizona sent five or more rushers on 27 percent of dropbacks, seventeenth of 30, a little above its 22 over the first three weeks. The cost was three long throws on third down: 39 yards to Nabers on third and 12, 40 to Malachi Fields on third and 20, 34 to Isaiah Likely on third and four.

The run defense is the best figure on the sheet. 21 percent of the Giants' 28 rush plays were successful, and they were worth −10.1 expected points; on defense, a big negative is the good direction. Per play, minus point four, against minus point two over the first three weeks. Arizona showed six or fewer in the box on half of New York's designed runs, after 42 percent across the first three weeks, and the Giants gained 3.1 yards a run, against 4.2 this defense allowed before Sunday. Collins recovered Najee Harris's fumble at the Arizona 42 with 11 14 left, down 27 to 24. The offense went three and out.

The turning point came on special teams, after Fields's 40-yard catch to the Arizona 18 late in the third quarter with Arizona up 24 to 19. The drive stalled at the 16 and Zvada made a 34-yard field goal, which would have kept Arizona in front, 24 to 22. A defensive holding penalty on Stills wiped it out, and New York took the first down at the 11 instead of the points. Two snaps later Winston found Theo Johnson for an 11-yard touchdown, Harris ran in the two-point try, and the Giants led 27 to 24. Arizona never led again. Its first two possessions that started in the fourth quarter went three and out, the second from its own three after a Giants punt was downed there. Five three-and-outs on 13 drives, and four of 12 on third down.

The stat lines, scored half-PPR. Wilson 13 even, Allgeier 11.9, Brissett 10.4, Elijah Higgins 8.9 on two catches and a two-yard touchdown, Harrison 7.7, McBride 6.6, Love six. For the Giants, Nabers 20.2 on six catches for 112 and a touchdown.

Last week's notebook asked two things: whether Brissett's catchable rate would hold, and which box this defense would show. The catchable rate did not hold: 63 percent, after 78 across the first three weeks, on a day he saw five or more rushers more than twice as often. The box was half light and half heavy, and the Giants ran for 3.1 a carry into it. Arizona is one and three, after beating the Chargers and losing to Seattle and San Francisco. For the notebook: what Brissett does the next time a defense sends five or more on half his dropbacks.

That's your Cardinals — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Cardinals show wherever you're listening, so next week's episode lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._