Cardinals 21, Lions 45 — Week 5: Third-Down Stops, Fourth-Down Scores

Arizona lost 45-21 to Detroit at home, and the defense lost it on the down after the stop. The Cardinals got the Lions off the field on 9 of 13 third downs. Detroit went for it on fourth down four times and converted all four, three of them touchdowns. It was 7-7 midway through the second quarter. Detroit finished its 11 drives with six touchdowns and a field goal, and never turned the ball over.

The passing game finished above its own standard, and most of that came after the game was gone. By expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, its 52 pass plays came to +5.4, +0.10 a play against -0.04 through Week 4. Half were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Jacoby Brissett went 29 of 47 for 292 yards, three touchdowns and an interception. Two of the scores came down 31-7 and 45-14: 13 yards to Teagan Quitoriano late in the third, and 9 yards to Trey McBride on fourth and 9 with 2:17 left, a snap worth +4.3 EPA that moved win probability not at all. The opening drive was the real work: 16 plays, kept alive on fourth and 1 at the Detroit 9 when Michael Wilson threw to Brissett for 7, and finished by Quitoriano from 2 yards on the next snap. McBride caught 9 of 10 targets for 66 yards.

The charting says Brissett's throws were clean and crowded. Detroit sent five or more pass rushers on 13 of 53 dropbacks, 24.5%, against the 30.2% this offense saw through Week 4. The charters marked none of his throws interception-worthy, a ball a defender should have caught, after 4 in the first four weeks, and charged him with none of the five sacks. The cost was traffic: 14 of 47 throws were contested, a receiver and a defender arriving together, 29.8% against 18.5% before Sunday. The interception was a heave, third and 19 with 3 seconds left in the half, Keith Abney II catching it at the Detroit 17.

The run game was Muffed, and the success rate shows it: 27.8% of 18 rush plays, worth -3.9 EPA, -0.21 a play against -0.02 through Week 4. Detroit stacked the box, showing six or fewer on 4 of 17 designed runs, 23.5%, after 44.3% through Week 4. Those 17 runs gained 38 yards. Jeremiyah Love had 22 on 12 carries.

The pass defense brought more rush and still gave up the biggest plays. Detroit's 33 pass plays were worth +16.4 EPA, +0.50 a play against +0.33 allowed through Week 4; on defense a positive number is the bad direction. Arizona sent five or more on 11 of 33 dropbacks, 33.3%, after 23.6% through Week 4, and got three sacks. Budda Baker's came first, 12 yards on third and 5 on Detroit's opening drive. Baron Browning had one and forced two fumbles, and Detroit recovered both. Jared Goff went 19 of 30 for 271 and three touchdowns, and the play fake did much of it: 13 of his 33 dropbacks, 39.4%, against the 22.8% opponents used on this defense through Week 4, with Goff 8 of 12 for 123 yards off it. Up 24-7 in the third, on third and 10 at the Arizona 39, he threw deep right to Jameson Williams for the touchdown.

The run defense was Muffed, and EPA per play shows how far it fell. Detroit's 32 rush plays were worth +4.8 EPA, +0.15 a play, after -0.21 allowed through Week 4, and half were successful. The box did not change: six or fewer on 14 of 32 designed runs, 43.8%, the same rate as the first four weeks. Those 32 runs gained 163 yards, after 407 on 105 through Week 4. Jahmyr Gibbs ran 25 times for 151 yards and two touchdowns. Arizona's best stand came late in the third: Gibbs ran 22 yards to the Arizona 2, then got 1 yard and no gain, Max Melton and Dadrion Taylor-Demerson stopping him on third and 1. Goff sneaked in on fourth.

The game turned at 9:38 of the second quarter. Tied 7-7, Detroit had third and 12 at the Arizona 49 after Dante Stills and Walter Nolen dropped Sione Vaki for a 2-yard loss. Goff found Sam LaPorta for 11, a yard short; Detroit challenged and the spot stood. On fourth and 1 at the 38, Goff threw short right to LaPorta, who went the distance. That was +5.6 EPA and 17.2 points of win probability, the biggest swing of the game. Arizona went three-and-out, and Detroit's next touchdown came on fourth and 4 at the Arizona 8, Goff to Williams. Detroit's first touchdown had started the same way: a fourth-and-3 completion to LaPorta that drew 15 more yards on an unnecessary roughness penalty on Mack Wilson.

The scheme sped up and leaned on the fake. Arizona ran no-huddle on 24.3% of snaps, against 8.9% through Week 4. Play-action rose to 12 of 53 dropbacks, 22.6%, from 15.4%, and Brissett went 7 of 9 for 98 yards off it, after 15 of 22 for 111 in the first four weeks. He left the pocket 11 times on 52 dropbacks, after 20 times on 162. There were no screens, after 9.

Last week's notebook asked what Brissett would do the next time a defense sent five or more on half his dropbacks. Detroit did not ask the question, sending that rush on a quarter of them, and against the standard rush he threw nothing a defender should have caught. The new line is the run defense, which gave up 163 yards on 32 designed runs while showing light boxes at the same rate as in the first four weeks, when opponents gained 407 on 105. The one to watch next: whether that run defense gets back below zero, and whether the run game finds anything when the box stays heavy.

That's your Cardinals, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Cardinals on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._