Cardinals 18, Rams 16 — Week 6: Six Field Goals, the Last at 0:03

Arizona beat the Rams 18-16 in Los Angeles without scoring a touchdown. Chad Ryland kicked six field goals on 10 drives, the last from 43 yards with 3 seconds left, less than a minute after Matthew Stafford had put the Rams ahead 16-15. The Cardinals ran 15 snaps inside the Los Angeles 20 and finished none of them in the end zone. Each side lost one turnover and forced one.

The passing game moved the ball above its own standard, and success rate shows it: 54.3% of 35 pass plays were successful, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. By expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, they came to +2.0, +0.06 a play against a break-even rate through Week 5, for 218 yards and no touchdowns. On the first possession, Quentin Lake intercepted Jacoby Brissett's third-and-5 throw for Trey McBride. McBride's 26-yard catch on second and 10 set up the first field goal, and Kendrick Bourne's 8 yards on third and 6 put the ball at the Los Angeles 8 before halftime.

The run game carried the volume and lost value: 35 rush plays worth -3.4 EPA, -0.10 a play against slightly below zero through Week 5, for 120 yards, with 42.9% successful. Bam Knight's 31-yard run left end set up a field goal in the first quarter. Tyler Allgeier converted third and 2 twice, for 3 yards in the third and 2 in the fourth. Aaron Donald dropped him for 5 yards at the Los Angeles 11, Byron Young for 2 at the 10, and his 2-yard loss on the final drive cost 7.8 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win.

The pass defense Smashed its own season, and EPA per play allowed measures the turn: the Rams' 36 pass plays were worth -5.7, -0.16 a play, against +0.36 allowed through Week 5; on defense, a negative number is good. Josh Sweat sacked Stafford on third and 12 on the Rams' opening drive, Budda Baker added one in the second, and L.J. Collier recovered Stafford's fumble on a sacked two-point try. The play of the day came with 8:05 left, up 15-9. The Rams had first and 10 at the Arizona 19, lost 11 yards on a sack, and on second and 21 Stafford threw short right to Tyler Higbee, who reached the 22. Cody Simon forced a fumble and Denzel Burke recovered at the 25: -4.3 EPA to the Rams and 11.7 points of win probability. The leak was late, Puka Nacua for 43 and 16 on the drive that put the Rams ahead.

The run defense held near its standard, and success rate allowed tells it: half of the Rams' 20 rush plays succeeded, worth -2.2 EPA, -0.11 a play against -0.13 allowed through Week 5; here, too, negative is good. They gained 92 yards. Jack Gibbens and Mack Wilson stopped Davis Allen for no gain on fourth and 1 at the Arizona 27 in the third, up 12-9, a 13.2-point swing in win probability. Baker dropped Kyren Williams for 2 on second and 3 in the fourth, and the drive died on downs two snaps later.

The game turned with 47 seconds left. Down 16-15 at their own 35 after Colby Parkinson's touchdown, the Cardinals had first and 10. Brissett threw deep middle to Jalen Brooks for 21 yards to the Los Angeles 44, and Josh Wallace's unnecessary roughness penalty added 15 more. That snap was worth +2.9 EPA and 24.1 points of win probability, the largest swing of the game. Ryland kicked the winner from 43 with 3 seconds left. Arizona converted 5 of 15 third downs, went three-and-out three times, and its defense got off the field on 6 of the Rams' 10 third downs.

Last week's notebook asked whether the run defense would get back below zero. It did: -0.11 a play allowed. The one to watch next: whether an offense that reached the red zone often enough for six field goals starts turning those 15 snaps into touchdowns, and whether a pass defense that held the Rams to -0.16 a play can do it again.

That's your Cardinals, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Cardinals on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._