Cardinals 16, Broncos 30 — Week 7: 20 Red-Zone Snaps, 1 Touchdown

Arizona lost 30-16 to Denver at home on Sunday, and the red zone failed it for a second straight week. The Cardinals ran 20 snaps inside the Denver 20 and scored one touchdown, Trey McBride's 7-yard catch late in the third quarter. It was 6-6 until Bo Nix ran 62 yards for a touchdown with 3:57 left in the half, and Denver scored on its first three possessions after halftime. 11 drives produced a touchdown, three field goals, two turnovers on downs and three three-and-outs. Neither side turned the ball over. Arizona is 2-5.

The passing game was Muffed, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, measures the drop. Its 51 pass plays were worth -7.8 EPA, -0.15 a play against a break-even +0.005 through Week 6, and only 31.4% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Jacoby Brissett completed 27 of 48 for 272 yards and a touchdown without an interception, and was sacked three times. The first half did the damage: 18 dropbacks worth -7.5 EPA. He completed 1 of 6 deep throws, for 26 yards. McBride was the offense, 10 catches on 13 targets for 111 yards. Michael Wilson caught 4 of 8 for 55.

The run game came in above its own standard, and success rate is the fair read: 37.5% of 24 rush plays succeeded, for 94 yards. They were worth -0.7 EPA, -0.03 a play against -0.06 through Week 6. Bam Knight ran 7 times for 48 yards, 29 of them on one carry late in the first quarter, and a lowering-the-head penalty on Brandon Jones put the ball at the Denver 8 for the first field goal. Tyler Allgeier ran 8 times for 19. Brissett converted fourth and 1 twice himself, on runs up the middle.

The pass defense gave up four big plays and little else, and success rate allowed shows the split: only 9 of Denver's 30 pass plays, 30%, succeeded. They were still worth +4.5 EPA, +0.15 a play against +0.26 allowed through Week 6; on defense a positive number is bad, and this was less bad than usual. Four completions went for 20 yards or more: Courtland Sutton for 20 on the first snap, RJ Harvey for 52, Marvin Mims Jr. for 47 and Jaylen Waddle for 27. Without the three biggest, the other 27 pass plays came to -5.8 EPA. Harvey's was the one that hurt: up 13-6 early in the third, first and 10 at the Denver 48, he caught a pass 8 yards behind the line of scrimmage on the left and ran 60 yards after the catch for the touchdown, +4.49 EPA.

The run defense held the backs and lost the quarterback, and EPA per play allowed tells it: Denver's 24 rush plays were worth +6.4, +0.27 a play against -0.13 allowed through Week 6. Nearly all of that came on two Nix scrambles, 70 yards and +6.7 EPA. Denver's 22 designed runs gained 91 yards and came to -0.3 EPA. Jonah Coleman ran 9 times for 54. J.K. Dobbins scored from the 1 with 2 seconds left in the third quarter, after Mims's 47-yard catch and a pass-interference flag on Denzel Burke at the 6.

The game turned with 3:57 left in the half. Tied 6-6, second and 7 at the Denver 38, Nix scrambled up the middle and ran 62 yards for the touchdown: +5.48 EPA and 20.3 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win, the largest swing of the game. Arizona answered with a three-and-out, McBride's third-and-2 target falling incomplete at its own 43. The opening drive of the third quarter reached the Denver 45, then three straight passes fell incomplete and Blake Gillikin's punt went 7 yards. Three plays later Harvey scored, and it was 20-6.

The red zone cost the rest. The first trip, first and goal at the 8, lost 3 yards in two snaps and ended in a 30-yard field goal. The second reached the 2 on third and 8, and a delay-of-game flag pushed the 26-yard kick back. Down 30-16 with 2:09 left, Jalen Brooks's 35-yard catch put the ball at the 1. Two pass-interference calls on Jahdae Barron gave Arizona fresh downs, then Brissett was stopped on a sneak, Alex Singleton sacked him at the 5, and two throws to Wilson fell incomplete, the last on fourth and 5. The 20 red-zone snaps were worth -10.7 EPA. Arizona converted 5 of 17 third downs.

Last week's notebook asked whether an offense that kicked six field goals would turn red-zone snaps into touchdowns, and whether a pass defense that held the Rams to -0.16 a play could do it again. Neither: one touchdown on 20 red-zone snaps, and +0.15 a play allowed. The one to watch next: whether an offense with one touchdown on 35 red-zone snaps over two weeks finds a way in, and whether a pass defense that held 26 of Denver's 30 pass plays under 20 yards stops giving up the other four.

That's your Cardinals, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Cardinals on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._