Cardinals 33, Cowboys 30 — Week 8: Down 17-3, Won in Overtime

Arizona beat Dallas 33-30 in overtime at AT&T Stadium on Sunday and went to 3-5, after trailing 17-3 with 1:35 left in the third quarter. Gardner Minshew played every snap from there, and his six drives produced four touchdowns, a punt and the winning field goal. Down 27-17 with 2:23 left, Arizona's win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win, was 4%. Chad Ryland missed the extra point that would have won it in regulation, then made a 42-yarder with 2:58 left in overtime.

The passing game was two games stitched together, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, splits them cleanly. Jacoby Brissett's 27 pass plays were worth -16.2 EPA: 10 of 23 for 119 yards, an interception and 4 sacks, and 6 of the 27 succeeded. Minshew's 21 were worth +14.7: 17 of 20 for 188 yards and 3 touchdowns, sacked once, 14 of 21 successful. Together they came to -0.03 a play, against -0.02 through Week 7. The finish was Minshew's. Down 30-24 from his own 20 with 1:05 left, he hit Allgeier for 14, spiked it, then found Michael Wilson deep right for 21. On third and 5 at the Dallas 40 with 27 seconds left, Wilson caught another deep throw for 27 to the 13. After a third spike, second and 10 with 10 seconds left, Minshew threw short over the middle to Wilson for the tying touchdown: +3.9 EPA and 38.7 points of win probability, the largest swing of the game.

The run game had its biggest yardage of the season, and almost all of it came on two carries: 202 yards on 27 rush plays, after no more than 123 in any game this season. They were worth +5.6 EPA, +0.21 a play against -0.05 through Week 7, but only 33.3% succeeded. Allgeier's 63-yard touchdown up the middle came on Minshew's second snap, and his 52-yarder opened the next drive. The other 25 rush plays gained 87 yards. Jeremiyah Love ran 9 times for 23 and was stopped on fourth and 1 at the Dallas 1 in the first quarter, -4.6 EPA; he was hurt on his last carry of the quarter and did not carry again.

The pass defense played well under its own standard of damage, and EPA per play allowed says how far: Dallas's 33 pass plays were worth +0.10 a play, against +0.25 allowed through Week 7. On defense a positive number is bad, and this was less than half the usual. Dak Prescott completed 19 of 29 for 195 yards and a touchdown without an interception, and was sacked 4 times. The leaks were a 37-yard catch by George Pickens and a 23-yard pass-interference flag on the next third down that set up Prescott's 5-yard touchdown scramble. Dallas converted 6 of 16 third downs.

The run defense Smashed, and yards per carry tell it: Dallas ran 38 times for 94 yards, 2.5 a carry, with a longest gain of 7. Those plays were worth -7.0 EPA, -0.18 a play against -0.08 allowed through Week 7; here a negative number is good. Javonte Williams ran 24 times for 56. On Dallas's first drive he was stopped for a 2-yard loss on fourth and 1 at the Dallas 32, -4.0 EPA. Given first and goal at the 2 late in the third, Williams lost 2, then 1. Down 27-24 with Dallas at the Arizona 20 after a recovered onside kick, Williams was held to no gain and L.J. Collier sacked Prescott for 6, so Dallas settled for a field goal and a six-point lead.

The game turned in overtime. Arizona's first possession opened with a sack and ended in a punt. Dallas got 2 yards in two plays, and on third and 8 at its own 31, Josh Sweat sacked Prescott for 7, -19.4 points of win probability for Dallas. From his own 32, Minshew hit Trey McBride for 8, and on third and 1 at the Arizona 41, Wilson ran left for 17 to the Dallas 42, +17.0 points. Allgeier carried four straight times for 18 yards, and Ryland kicked the winner.

Last week's notebook asked whether an offense with one touchdown on 35 red-zone snaps over two weeks would find a way in. It did: 3 touchdowns on 14 red-zone snaps, all thrown by Minshew in the fourth quarter. The one to watch next: whether a passing game worth -0.60 a play under Brissett and +0.70 under Minshew settles anywhere near the second number, and whether a run game that got 115 of its 202 yards on two carries can get more from the other 25.

That's your Cardinals, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Cardinals on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._