Falcons 13, Steelers 20 — Week 1: Not One Snap Inside the Twenty

Atlanta did not run a single play from scrimmage inside the Pittsburgh 20-yard line on Sunday. The only touchdown came from outside it, Cooper Rush to Bijan Robinson for 23 on third and eight with one 19 left in the first quarter, three plays after a Steelers fumble handed the Falcons the ball at the Pittsburgh 25. The other six points were Nick Folk field goals from 51 43, and Folk also missed from 54 45. Pittsburgh won 20 to 13 at Acrisure Stadium, and it won with an offense that lost 14 expected points through the air, because Atlanta's lost 16.

Start with the passing game, because it was the worst passing offense any team put on the field in Sunday's early games. 26 pass plays, a hundred 43 yards, one touchdown, two interceptions, four sacks, and −16 expected points added. Expected points added is what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position; for an offense a negative number means the plays left the team worse off than before it ran them. −16 on 26 plays is the worst passing figure of the 16 early-game teams, and eight of the 26 were successful — 31 percent, also the worst. The two interceptions decided it. First and 10 at the Atlanta 24, 12 17 left in the half, up seven to six, Rush deep middle for Jahan Dotson, Jaquan Brisker at the 41 — 18 points of win probability, and Pittsburgh scored four plays later. Then second and 10 at the Atlanta 44 with 14 16 left in the game, down 13 to 10, two plays after Robinson had run 20 yards to end the third quarter: Rush short right for Robinson, T.J. Watt stepped in front of it at the 35 and scored. 24 points of win probability on one snap, the biggest swing of the game. The four sacks were Alex Highsmith twice and Watt twice, and the second half of the passing game was 10 plays, 64 yards, −11. Atlanta converted two of 12 third downs, fifteenth of the 16.

The run game was volume without points: 31 carries, a hundred 20 yards, no touchdowns, −2 and a half expected points, fourteenth of the 16. 14 of the 31 were successful. 20 of the carries came after halftime for 96 yards, and Robinson's 20-yard run around right end on the last play of the third quarter got the ball to the Atlanta 44, which is where the interception happened. On third and one at the Pittsburgh 46 with eight 29 left in the half, Robinson was dropped for a loss by Jamel Dean and fumbled it to himself; Atlanta punted.

Now the defense, which did its part. Pittsburgh ran 43 pass plays for 221 yards and lost 14 expected points doing it; on defense a big negative number is the good direction, and −14 allowed is fourth-best of the 16. 15 of the 43 were successful for Pittsburgh, a 35 percent rate that is second-best. Against the run it was the best of the 16 by both measures, expected points and success rate: 18 Pittsburgh carries, 61 yards, −4 and a half expected points, five of 18 successful. Pittsburgh converted three of 12 third downs. Za'Darius Smith had both sacks, including third and five at the Atlanta 30 with seven 42 left that pushed Pittsburgh into a 56-yard field goal try that Chris Boswell missed. Cameron Thomas forced the Jaylen Warren fumble and Divine Deablo recovered it at the Pittsburgh 25 — 17 points of win probability, and the only Atlanta touchdown. Six Pittsburgh snaps inside the Atlanta 20 produced one touchdown, and Pittsburgh turned it over on downs twice in Atlanta territory, once on a fake field goal. The one thing to hold against the unit is the 37-yard pass interference on A.J. Terrell on third and seven with 14 24 left in the half, which put Pittsburgh at the Atlanta 26 and produced a field goal.

Now the part where a Week 1 episode has to be honest about what it is. The ranks in this episode are against the 16 teams that played in the early window on Sunday, not the whole league. What there is, is last year. In 2025 this offense finished 20-fourth in the league in expected points per play and 20-ninth on third down, and the team won eight games. On Sunday it was last of the 16 and fifteenth on third down, which is the same problem with a lower floor. The defense finished fifteenth in expected points allowed per play, 20-fifth against the run, and second in the league with 57 sacks. On Sunday it was first of 16 against the run and second overall, and it had two sacks. If you want one sentence out of this: the defense played well enough to win and the offense did not, and one afternoon in Pittsburgh — against a pass rush that finished sixth in the league in sacks last year — is not enough to know whether the passing game is broken or was just beaten.

Atlanta is home to Carolina next Sunday. Watch the third downs first, and watch whether the run defense holds up, in that order.

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_Data via nflverse._