Falcons, Week 1 — What Repeats: Ten Uncatchable Balls for Rush

Cooper Rush threw 22 passes in Pittsburgh on Sunday, and the charters marked 12 of them catchable. 10 were not. 55 percent catchable is thirtieth of 32 teams in Week 1, against a league median of 71, and across all of last season this offense's throws were charted catchable 68 percent of the time. Two of his 22 throws were charted interception-worthy — nine percent, tied for the second-highest rate in the league this week with Cleveland and New England — and he threw two interceptions; the charting does not say they were the same throws. And the usual reason for a rate like that is missing. One of his 22 throws was contested, a receiver and a defender arriving together. Across all of 2025 this offense threw into traffic on 15 and a half percent of its throws. Rush was not losing contested throws; 10 of his 22 were simply not catchable. His receivers dropped none of the 12 catchable balls. No throwaways. One sack of the four the Recap counted was charged to the quarterback. There is no baseline to set beside Rush himself — the charting has no 2025 throws for him — so the comparison here is to the offense he stepped into, and the offense he stepped into was 14 points more catchable a year ago.

What worked came off the play fake, and there was almost none of it. Atlanta called play-action on three of 26 dropbacks — 11 and a half percent, 30-first in the league in Week 1, with the median at 21, and against 20 percent for this offense across all of last season. Rush's three play-action throws were all completed, for 64 yards. His other 19 throws produced nine completions and 79 yards. More than two-fifths of the passing yards on three throws. There is one more scheme number that moved: screens on five of 26 dropbacks, 19 percent, against eight and a half percent last year. Motion was where it usually is, 44 of 77 charted plays, 57 percent, third-highest in the league this week and close to the 53 percent this offense ran across 2025.

Now the box counts, because they read like a defense taking away the run first. Pittsburgh put six or fewer defenders in the box on nine of Atlanta's 31 charted designed runs. 29 percent, tied for 20-sixth in the league with Baltimore, against a league median of 47. Across all of last season this offense saw a light box on 64 percent of its designed runs. Pittsburgh cut that share by more than half and loaded the front, and those 31 designed runs still gained a hundred and 20 yards. The Recap called it volume without points, and it was. What the box counts add is that the volume came against heavier fronts than this offense averaged last season, and it still gained a hundred and 20 yards, without points. Whatever the reason for the heavy fronts, the throws that resulted were 55 percent catchable.

Pittsburgh got its four sacks while sending five or more on two of Rush's 26 dropbacks — eight percent, the lowest five-or-more rate in the league in Week 1 — and a charted blitzer on one dropback all game. Atlanta's offense faced five or more on 27 percent of its dropbacks across last season. So the sacks did not come from numbers, and one of the four was charged to the quarterback.

The defense, meanwhile, did the opposite of what it did a year ago and came out fine. Atlanta sent five or more pass rushers on seven of Pittsburgh's 43 dropbacks — 16 percent, 20-fifth in the league in Week 1. Across all of 2025 this defense sent five or more on 35 percent of the dropbacks it faced, and a charted blitzer on 36 percent; on Sunday the blitzer figure was four dropbacks of 43, nine percent. Less than half last year's rate of five-or-more rushes, and the Recap had this unit fourth-best of 16 in expected points allowed through the air, with two sacks. Aaron Rodgers's throws tell you why it held. 25 of his 40 were charted catchable, 62 and a half percent, against 71 percent across his 500 charted throws last season. Zero interception-worthy balls. Four contested throws of 40, 10 percent. Two drops by Pittsburgh receivers on the 25 catchable balls, two throwaways, and Rodgers left the pocket on seven of 42 dropbacks. His 10 play-action throws went eight for 91; his other 30 went 16 for a hundred and 30. Against the run, Atlanta showed six or fewer in the box on 12 of Pittsburgh's 18 charted designed runs, 67 percent, against 55 percent last year, and those 18 runs gained 61 yards. Light boxes and 61 yards on 18 is a run defense that did not need the extra man.

The stat lines have settled, so here they are, scored half-PPR. Bijan Robinson, 27.3: 21 carries for 83, and eight catches on 10 targets for 90 and the touchdown. Rush, 5.7, 12 of 22 for a hundred 43, one touchdown, two interceptions. Drake London two catches for 29 on four targets, +1 carry for six. Brian Robinson nine carries for 31. Jahan Dotson one catch for 19 on three targets, Olamide Zaccheaus one for five, and Kyle Pitts was targeted once and did not catch it. For Pittsburgh, Pat Freiermuth caught all five of his targets for 46 and the touchdown, 13.1; Rodgers 24 of 40 for 221 and a touchdown; Jaylen Warren 10 carries for 46 five catches for 27 on six targets; DK Metcalf four catches on 10 targets for 40.

Before the notebook, the disclosure this show owes you through Week 3. There is no within-season baseline after one game, so every comparison above is to last season — a different roster, a year older, in some places a different job, and at quarterback a passer with no charted throws last season at all. That tells you what was unusual about Sunday. It does not tell you what is true about this team. The version of this show that measures Atlanta against its own recent weeks starts around Week 4, and until then we will say which comparison we are making every time.

So the thread, from scratch. The Recap said this offense finished 20-fourth in expected points per play last year and won eight games, and that the defense finished fifteenth. Three things go in the notebook. Pittsburgh showed a light box on nine of 31 designed runs, a share this offense did not see last year, and sent five or more rushers on two of 26 dropbacks, and the quarterback threw 55 percent catchable with two balls up for grabs and one contested throw. Play-action was three of 26 dropbacks, and the three fakes produced 64 yards while the other 19 throws produced 79. And the defense sent five or more rushers on 16 percent of dropbacks, less than half its rate a year ago, and Rodgers was charted 62 and a half percent catchable with zero interception-worthy throws. Which of those is the team and which is one Sunday in Pittsburgh is the question the next few weeks answer.

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_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._