Falcons 3, Panthers 34 — Week 2: Two Games, No Red-Zone Snap

The defense had just made its best stand of the day. Fourth and goal at the Atlanta two, four 34 left in the third quarter, down 27 to three, and Bryce Young's pass for Tetairoa McMillan fell incomplete. Atlanta took over at its own two. Brian Robinson ran for four, then four more. Third and two at the 10, three oh eight left, and Atlanta had a new quarterback in the game. Jack Strand's first pass play of the day went short right for Jahan Dotson, Devin Lloyd intercepted it at the 16 and ran it in. 33 to three. Atlanta lost 34 to three at home to the Panthers on Sunday, turned the ball over five times, and never led. By the win probability model its best moment was about 55 percent, at the opening kickoff. After the first snap, a nine-yard Cooper Rush scramble that ended with a fumble Carolina recovered at the Atlanta 35, it was 40.

Start with the passing game, because for the second week running there is no way around it. 35 pass plays were worth −25 expected points added. Expected points added is what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, so that is 25 points of value handed back relative to what those situations were already worth. Of the 28 teams that have played this week, that is last, per play and in total. Last week in Pittsburgh it was −15.8 on 26 pass plays, last of all 32. For the comparison: at the rate Atlanta threw last season, when it ranked 20-first, Sunday's 35 plays would have been worth about minus point four. A hundred 45 passing yards, tied with Green Bay, and only Minnesota and Arizona have thrown for fewer so far this week. The longest completion was 17 yards. Three interceptions, three sacks, and the last sack was also a lost fumble with 50 seconds to play. The one throw that would have changed the yardage, 25 yards to Drake London from the Atlanta 12 in the second quarter, came back on a face mask penalty against the offense. The success rate, the share of snaps that kept the offense on schedule, was 31 percent, 20-fifth so far this week.

Here is the thing to repeat to another fan. Atlanta did not snap the ball inside the Carolina 20 on Sunday. Its closest snap was at the 23. It did not snap the ball inside the Pittsburgh 20 last week either; the closest there was the 22. Two games, no red-zone snap. And it is not because the offense could not move. Atlanta ran 67 pass and rush plays to Carolina's 59 and had one three-and-out, and only Buffalo has had fewer so far this week. 12 drives ended this way: five turnovers, three punts, one stop on downs, one missed 53-yard field goal, one made 41-yarder, and the end of the half. The ball moved, and then it was given away.

The run game shows the same gap between yards and value. A hundred 57 rushing yards, fourth-most of the 28 teams so far this week, on 32 rush plays, tied for third-most. Those plays were worth −6.7 expected points, tied with Detroit for nineteenth per play. Two moments carry that number. One is the first-snap fumble, which counts as a rush play and cost 4.8 by itself. The other is a sequence at the end of the first quarter, down 10 to nothing. Third and two at the Carolina 32, Bijan Robinson over right guard for one. Fourth and one at the 31, 46 seconds left, London ran left end and Lloyd dropped him for a loss of two. That was worth −4.1. Three rush plays went for 10 or more and every one of them went for exactly 11. On third down the offense was four of 13, tied with the Raiders for 20-second so far this week, and one of three when it needed only a yard or two. Last week it was two of 12.

The defense is the paragraph that changed from a week ago. Carolina's 38 pass plays were worth +11.1 expected points, and on defense a positive number is the bad direction. 20-first per play so far this week. In Pittsburgh this pass defense was sixth of 32, and at the rate it allowed passes last season, when it ranked thirteenth, those 38 plays would have been worth about −1.2. The damage came in chunks. Five completions of 20 yards or more gained a hundred 61 of Carolina's 287 passing yards. The worst of them came right after a sack: second and 16 at the Carolina 35, 48 seconds left in the half, 13 to three, and Young went deep middle to Xavier Legette for 55 yards to the Atlanta 10. Three plays later it was 20 to three. Carolina also converted a third and 12 on the opening drive of the third quarter by one yard, after a challenge moved the spot, and that drive ended in a touchdown too. Two sacks, no takeaways.

What the defense did well is worth saying, because the score buries it. The run defense allowed 72 yards on 21 rush plays, worth −2.7 expected points, seventeenth per play so far this week, with one run of 10 or more. And in the red zone it faced 24 snaps and allowed three touchdowns. Six Carolina trips inside the 20 produced two field goals and that fourth-and-goal stop along with the three scores, and one of the touchdowns needed a fourth and three from the three to get in. Three of those trips began on short fields the offense and the punt team handed over: the fumble at the 35, a 36-yard punt return plus a penalty that set Carolina up at the 29, and Lloyd's 53-yard interception return to the 20. The defense allowed 10 points on those three. On third down it got off the field on eight of 14, seventeenth so far this week.

Now the thread, for anyone joining this week. Atlanta went eight and nine last season and lost to Carolina twice, 30 to nothing and 30 to 27 in overtime. The passing game ranked 20-first, the run game 20-third, third down in the bottom five; the pass defense was thirteenth and the run defense 20-fifth. Week 1 was a 20 to 13 loss at Pittsburgh in which the passing game ranked last in the league, third down went two of 12, and the defense was very good, sixth against the pass and third against the run. Sunday kept the first half of that and lost the second. The offense has now been last in the league by expected points per pass play in both of its games, and in both of them an Atlanta interception was returned for a touchdown. Two games do not settle a season, and a quarterback change in the middle of one makes the next sample a different question. But nothing in the first two weeks argues with last year's offensive ranks except to say they were generous.

Atlanta is at Green Bay on Thursday night. Watch who takes the first snap, and watch whether a drive reaches the 20.

That's your Falcons — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Falcons show wherever you're listening, so next week's recap lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

And if you play fantasy, there's a Muffed show built around your exact roster — free at muffed.ai.

_Data via nflverse._