Falcons, Week 2 — What Repeats: Opposite Rush, Same Loose Balls

Two defenses tried opposite things against Atlanta's passing game, and got the same thing back. Last week Pittsburgh sent five or more pass rushers on two of 26 dropbacks, eight percent, the lowest rate in the league. On Sunday Carolina sent five or more on 20 of 39, 51 percent, the fifth-highest of the 32 teams this week. Across all of last season this offense saw five or more on 27 percent. And the loose balls came either way. Atlanta threw three interception-worthy balls on 32 throws, nine percent, the highest rate of the 32 teams this week. Last week it was nine percent too, tied with Cleveland and New England for second. Last season this offense was under three percent. So the loose balls do not line up with the rush, and Sunday's split shows it. On the 20 dropbacks against five or more, Atlanta threw 16 times, completed nine for 92 yards, and put none of them up for grabs. On the other 19, against fewer rushers, it threw 16 times, completed nine for 53 yards, and threw all three interceptions. Every one of them came against a four-man rush.

The quarterbacks split the damage unevenly. Cooper Rush threw 17 times before the change; 11 were catchable, 65 percent, and three were interception-worthy, 18 percent of his throws. One of the three was ruled an interception and reversed on review, third and four late in the second quarter. With last week's two interception-worthy balls on 22 throws, that is five in two games on 39. There is no last-season baseline for him to set against it; he has no charted throws from 2025. Jack Strand threw 15, 10 catchable, 67 percent, none charted interception-worthy, and the offense's one drop of the day came on one of his throws. His interception, the one returned for a touchdown, was charted neither interception-worthy nor catchable. As a team, 21 of 32 throws were catchable, 66 percent, 20-third of the 32 teams this week, against 68 percent last season and 55 last week.

The other thing that has now held for two weeks is where the ball is not going. Two of Atlanta's 32 throws were contested, a receiver and a defender arriving together — six percent, 20-fourth in the league this week. Last week it was one of 22, tied with Cleveland for 20-eighth. Across last season this offense threw into traffic on 15 and a half percent of its throws. The loose balls are not coming from 50-50 throws. And none of the three sacks was charged to the quarterback.

The scheme repeated in two places and reversed in a third. Play-action stayed scarce: six of 39 dropbacks, 15 percent, tied with New Orleans for 20-seventh of the 32 teams this week, after 11 and a half percent and 30-first last week, against 20 percent across last season. The three play-action throws went one for 14 yards. Screens stayed heavy: five of 39 dropbacks, 13 percent, eighth in the league, after 19 percent and second last week, against eight and a half percent last season. Motion is what moved. 30 of 82 charted plays, 37 percent, 20-fourth in the league, one week after 57 percent and third, and against 53 percent across last season. The one scheme figure that looked like last year's offense in Pittsburgh is the one that did not survive the week.

The run game keeps meeting loaded fronts, and this week it gained yards against them. Carolina showed six or fewer in the box on 10 of Atlanta's 28 designed runs, 36 percent, twentieth of the 32 teams this week, with the median at 44. Last week Pittsburgh's figure was 29 percent, tied for 20-sixth. Across last season this offense saw a light box on 64 percent of its designed runs. Two weeks, both far below that, same direction: defenses are putting the extra man up against this run game. The average box was 6.6, against 6.4 last season. And the 28 designed runs gained a hundred 21 yards, 4.3 a run, eighth in the league this week, after 3.9 last week and 4.6 across last season.

The defense has a repeat of its own, and it cuts both ways. Atlanta sent five or more rushers on 10 of Carolina's 39 dropbacks, 26 percent, 20-fourth in the league this week. Last week it was 16 percent, 20-fifth. Across last season this defense sent five or more on 35 percent. Two weeks, both well below last year. Against that, Bryce Young's throws were catchable on 22 of 36, 61 percent, the fourth-lowest rate any defense allowed of the 32 this week. Last week it was 61 percent too, 20-seventh. Last season opponents were catchable on 69 percent against this defense. Four of Young's throws were throwaways. What the defense has not done is force a mistake. Zero interception-worthy throws this week, one of 12 defenses with none, and zero last week, against nearly four percent across last season. One of Young's 36 throws was contested, three percent, third-lowest in the league. He threw play-action eight times and completed five for 94.

Against the run the box flipped and the result did not. Atlanta showed six or fewer on six of Carolina's 20 designed runs, 30 percent, 20-second this week, after 67 percent and fifth last week, against 55 percent last season. Carolina's 20 designed runs gained 66 yards, 3.3 a run, 20-second-most allowed in the league. Last week it was 3.4, 20-eighth. Last season this defense allowed 4.4 per designed run. Light box or heavy, the yardage has stayed under last year's.

The stat lines have settled, so here they are, scored half-PPR. Bijan Robinson, 9.6: 16 carries for 72 three catches on four targets for nine. Brian Robinson, 7.7, 11 carries for 51 two catches for 16. Drake London caught four of five targets for 51, 6.9. Rush went 10 of 17 for 86 with two interceptions and ran twice for 20, minus point six. Strand went eight of 15 for 59 and an interception. Kyle Pitts caught one of three targets for 15. For Carolina, Young scored 24.1 on 23 of 36 for 287 three touchdowns, Darren Waller 16.8 on three catches and two touchdowns, and Tetairoa McMillan caught five of 10 targets for a hundred one.

The comparison caution, which this show owes you through Week 3. With two games there is still no within-season baseline, so everything above is set against last season — a changed roster, a year older, and at quarterback two passers with no charted throws from 2025. That shows what is unusual. It does not yet show what is true, and last week is one game, not a season rate.

The thread, from the start. Atlanta went eight and nine last season, with no playoff game, and lost to Carolina twice. This season: a 20 to 13 loss in Pittsburgh, then 34 to three at home. What has moved the same way twice: interception-worthy throws at the top of the league against a rush that went from the fewest five-man looks to the fifth-most, very few contested throws, scarce play-action and heavy screens, loaded boxes against the run game, and a defense that sends fewer rushers, holds quarterbacks to about 61 percent catchable, and has not forced an interception-worthy throw. What reversed: motion. Two games settle none of it. At Green Bay on Thursday night, watch for loose balls against a four-man rush, whoever is throwing.

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_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._