Falcons 35, Packers 14 — Week 3: Penix Starts, Five Hundred Yards

First and 10 at the Atlanta 40, three oh six left in the first quarter, down seven to nothing. Bijan Robinson took the handoff around left end and went 55 yards to the Green Bay five. Nine points of win probability on one snap — win probability being the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment — and by expected points added, what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth, it was +3.7. It also put the Falcons inside an opponent's 20 for the first time all season: through two games Atlanta had not run an offensive play there once. Two plays later Robinson scored from the three. Atlanta beat the Packers 35 to 14 at Lambeau Field on Thursday night, took the lead with four 53 left in the first half and never gave it back, and by the win probability model never dipped below 21 percent.

Michael Penix took the first snap, and that is the story under everything else. Cooper Rush threw every Atlanta pass play in Week 1; Rush and Jack Strand split them in Week 2; Thursday was Penix's first pass play of the season. 26 pass plays — that count includes sacks, and there were none, after four in Pittsburgh and three against Carolina — produced +9 and a half expected points, 256 yards, one touchdown and one interception, and 65 percent of them were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. That success rate is fourth of the 66 team-games played so far this season. For the comparison: at the rate Atlanta passed over Weeks 1 and 2, when it ranked last in the league both weeks, those same 26 plays would have been worth about −17. At the rate it passed last season, when it ranked 20-first, about zero. The snap that says it: third and two at the Atlanta 16, 14 17 left in the game, up 24 to seven, Penix deep left to Drake London, pushed out at the Green Bay 16, 68 yards — +5.2 expected points, more than any other snap in the game for either team.

The run game opens on the total, because it is the one that will get repeated: 244 rushing yards on 39 rush plays, three touchdowns, +12 expected points. 64 percent of those runs were successful plays. Among the 66 team-games this season that is second in yards, behind only Chicago's 291 in Week 1, and fourth by expected points per rush play. Atlanta's best run game of last season was worth +7.7 and its most rushing yards in a game was 219; Thursday beat both. For the baseline: Green Bay's run defense ranked seventeenth last season, and at that rate 39 carries would have been worth about −1. Five carries gained 10 or more, the other long one Bijan Robinson for 31 around right end on second and four from the Atlanta 14 with nine 21 left in the third, the second play of a 92-yard touchdown drive.

Third down and the drive chart tell it the same way. Six of 10 on third down, and on third and one or two, four for four, including Brian Robinson's seven-yard touchdown behind the left guard on third and one with three 41 left in the third quarter. 10 drives before the kneel-downs: four touchdowns, two field goals, two punts, the interception, and two snaps to run out the first half. No three-and-outs, which six other team-games have managed this season. 14 snaps inside the Green Bay 20 produced four touchdowns. 500 total yards is fifth of the 66 team-games this season, and 35 points is more than Atlanta scored in any game last season.

The interception came on the fourth offensive snap of the night. Second and 10 at the Green Bay 49, 13 33 left in the first quarter, nothing to nothing: Penix short middle for Jahan Dotson, and Xavier McKinney took it at the 40. −4.9 expected points and 11 points of win probability, the biggest swing of the game in either direction. The defense answered with three plays and a punt.

Now the pass defense, which faced 54 Green Bay pass plays — the most any team has run in a game this season except New Orleans and Houston. They were worth +3.6 expected points to the Packers. On defense a positive number is the bad direction, but on 54 plays it is a small one: at the rate this defense allowed over the first two weeks those same 54 would have been worth about −2, and at last season's rate, when it ranked thirteenth, about −2 as well. The yardage number is worse: 312 passing yards allowed, 50-seventh of 66 team-games. The one that mattered was 45 yards to Matthew Golden on third and 11 from the Green Bay 12 with nine 18 left in the first quarter, worth nine and a half points of win probability and the biggest play of the only drive that ever had Green Bay ahead.

The run defense barely got asked. Nine Green Bay rush plays, 17 yards, −2.7 expected points — the fewest rush plays and the fewest rushing yards by any team in the 66 team-games this season. No Packers run gained more than six, and Green Bay ran the ball four times after halftime, trailing by at least 10 points for the entire second half. On third down the defense got nine stops in 15. On fourth down it produced the third-biggest swing of the night: fourth and one at the Atlanta seven, 10 oh two left in the third quarter, Atlanta up 17 to seven, and Jordan Love's throw to Christian Watson fell incomplete. 10 points of win probability, −3.7 expected points for Green Bay, and Atlanta went 92 yards the other way.

The other swing belonged to the kicking team. Green Bay had reached the Atlanta 33 on a 34-yard pass interference penalty with four 44 left in the half, down 10 to seven, and gained five yards on the next three plays. Trey Smack's 47-yard field goal was blocked by Zach Harrison with three 47 left: 10 points of win probability, −3 and a half expected points. Atlanta took over at its own 37, went 63 yards in eight plays, and on third and five from the five with one oh two left Penix threw short left to Hooper for the touchdown, seven and a half points of win probability. 17 to seven at the half.

For anyone new to this show, here is where that sits. Last season Atlanta went eight and nine with a passing game that ranked 20-first by expected points per play, a run game 20-third, a third-down offense 20-ninth, a pass defense thirteenth and a run defense 20-fifth, and the preview framed the year around whether Michael Penix would be on the field. Week 1 was a 20 to 13 loss at Pittsburgh and Week 2 a 34 to three loss at home to Carolina, and in both the passing game ranked last in the league, Atlanta never ran an offensive play inside the 20, and an interception was returned for a touchdown. Thursday contradicted nearly all of it: 14 snaps inside the 20, six of 10 on third down, a run game better than any Atlanta had last season, and a passing game that went from last of 32 to thirteenth of the 66 team-games this season by the per-play rate. One night with a new quarterback against a run defense that ranked seventeenth last season does not settle a season. It does make the question a different one than Atlanta was asking a week ago.

Atlanta is at New Orleans on Monday night, October fifth, at the Caesars Superdome.

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_Data via nflverse._