Falcons, Week 3 — What Repeats: Light Boxes Finally Showed Up

Green Bay showed six or fewer defenders in the box on 25 of Atlanta's 39 designed runs. That is 64 percent, seventh-highest of the 32 offenses this week. In Pittsburgh the figure was 29 percent, tied for 20-sixth. Against Carolina it was 36 percent, twentieth. Last week's notebook said defenses were putting the extra man up against this run game, and on Thursday one did not. 64 percent is almost exactly what this offense saw across all of last season. The 39 designed runs gained 244 yards, 6.3 a carry, second-highest in the league this week behind Pittsburgh.

The split says how the yards arrived. The 25 runs against a light box gained a hundred 49 yards, six a carry on their own. The 14 runs into seven or more gained 95, and 55 of those came on one play: Bijan Robinson around left end, first and 10 from the Atlanta 40, three oh six left in the first quarter, down seven to nothing, into a seven-man box. Take that run out and the loaded fronts held Atlanta to about three a carry. So the yards against light boxes were spread across the carries, the longest 31, and the yards against heavy boxes were mostly one run.

The fake handoff came back with it. Atlanta used play-action on seven of 25 dropbacks, leaving out the two-point try. That is 28 percent, ninth in the league this week. The first two weeks it was 12 percent and 15, 30-first and tied for 20-seventh. Last season, 20. Here is the part to hold onto: the production did not come from the fake. Michael Penix's seven play-action throws produced four completions for 50 yards. His other 18 produced 14 completions for 206. The run game was good enough to make the fake worth calling, and the passing yards came from straight dropbacks.

Which brings the passing game to the line at the top of last week's notebook. Two weeks running Atlanta threw interception-worthy balls on about nine percent of its throws, tied for second in the league and then first. Thursday it was one of 25, four percent, twelfth. The one was the interception: second and 10 at the Green Bay 49, 13 33 left in the first quarter, scoreless, Penix short middle for Jahan Dotson, Xavier McKinney at the 40. It came against a four-man rush, which is where every one of last week's came from too. Otherwise the ball was clean. 18 of 25 throws were charted catchable, 72 percent, fourteenth in the league. That is up from 55 percent in Week 1 and 66 in Week 2, and above this offense's 69 from last season. One throw was contested, a receiver and a defender arriving together: four percent, 20-eighth, the third straight week under seven percent. No drops on 18 catchable balls. No sacks.

The rush Penix saw sat between the first two weeks. Green Bay sent five or more pass rushers on 10 of the 25 dropbacks, 40 percent, ninth in the league, after Pittsburgh's eight percent and Carolina's 51. On the 10 throws against it Penix completed eight for a hundred 31 yards. Six of Drake London's 10 targets came against five or more, and London caught nine of the 10 for a hundred 94. Motion, the one line that reversed last week, reversed again: 55 of 80 charted plays, 69 percent, second in the league behind Miami. Three weeks, third, 20-fourth, second. That one has not settled in either direction.

The defense held two of its lines and broke a third. Atlanta sent five or more rushers on 12 of Jordan Love's 54 dropbacks, 22 percent, tied with Las Vegas for 20-third. That is the third straight week under last season's 35 percent. Love's throws were charted catchable on 34 of 53, 64 percent, tied with Denver for 20-third of the 32 defenses. That is three weeks under last season's 70 percent. What broke is the mistake. Two of Love's 53 throws were charted interception-worthy, after none in the first two weeks, and Xavier Watts caught one: second and 10 at the Atlanta 10, one 18 left, Green Bay down 21, short middle for Jonnu Smith. Both came inside the last two minutes with the game decided. Eight of the 53 throws were contested, 15 percent, fourteenth in the league, after 10 percent and three. That is the first of the three weeks in the top half of the league.

The run defense faced nine designed runs. It showed six or fewer on seven of them, 78 percent, fourth-highest in the league, and those seven gained nine yards. All nine gained 17, 1.9 a carry, the fewest any defense allowed this week. Nine runs is not a sample. It is the third week under last season's 4.4 per designed run.

The stat lines have settled, so here they are, scored half-PPR. Bijan Robinson, 34.3: 29 carries for a hundred 94 two touchdowns, +2 catches for 19. Drake London, 23.9 on nine catches for a hundred 94. Penix, 14: 18 of 25 for 256, a touchdown and the interception. Brian Robinson ran 10 times for 50 and a score, 11. Austin Hooper caught both his targets for 11 yards and the touchdown. Kyle Pitts caught one of two for five. For Green Bay, Love scored 18 and a half on 28 of 53 for 312, two touchdowns and the interception. Christian Watson caught seven of 10 for 96 and a score, 19.1. Matthew Golden caught five of 12 for a hundred and a touchdown, 18 and a half.

One line on the yardstick. Through this week every "last season" above is all of 2025, a different roster with a different quarterback. From next week the comparison becomes this team's own games.

For anyone new, the thread from the top. Atlanta went eight and nine last season and missed the playoffs. This season: a 20 to 13 loss at Pittsburgh, a 34 to three loss at home to Carolina, and now 35 to 14 at Green Bay, one and two. Last week's notebook, line by line. Held: very few contested throws; heavy screens, six of 25 dropbacks, 24 percent, second in the league, the third week in the top 10; and a defense that sends fewer rushers than last season and holds quarterbacks in the sixties catchable. Broke: loose balls at the top of the league, down to one; scarce play-action, up to ninth; loaded boxes, gone light; and the defense that had not forced an interception-worthy throw forced two. Three games settle none of it, and this one came with a new quarterback. Atlanta is at New Orleans on Monday night. The question to carry there is whether the light boxes travel.

That's your Falcons — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Falcons show wherever you're listening, so next week's recap lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

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_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._