Falcons 45, Saints 24 — Week 4: Seven in the Box, 7.5 a Carry

Atlanta beat New Orleans 45-24 at the Caesars Superdome on Monday night, and it ran straight through the fronts built to stop it. The tone was set on the third snap. Second and 1 at the Atlanta 41, 13:43 left in the first quarter, no score: Bijan Robinson went around left end into a seven-man box and ran 59 yards for a touchdown. It was worth +4.7 expected points added (EPA), what a snap is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, and 14.8 points of win probability, the biggest swing of the game. The Falcons never trailed, led 24-7 at halftime, and after two first-quarter punts scored on six straight possessions, leaving aside two snaps to end the half.

The passing game was Smashed on a small sample. Its 21 pass plays, one sack included, were worth +10.7 EPA: +0.51 a play, against -0.38 across the first three weeks, two of them before Michael Penix's first start. 57 percent were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Penix completed 15 of 20 for 223 yards and a touchdown, and the charting says the ball was clean. 15 of the 20 throws were catchable (75%, 11th of 32 offenses this week). None was contested and none was interception-worthy, after six interception-worthy throws in 79 through Week 3.

The fake handoff carried the passing game. Atlanta used play-action on 8 of 21 dropbacks, 38%, second-highest in the league this week and more than double its 18% through Week 3, and Penix completed 7 of those 8 for 133 yards. The touchdown was one of them: first and 10 at the Saints 31, 9:57 left, up 31-17, Penix off a fake deep down the middle to Jahan Dotson for 31 yards, +3.0 EPA. Drake London caught 5 of 6 targets for 96 yards, 64 of them on throws of 27 and 37 in the second quarter. Kyle Pitts caught all three of his for 47.

New Orleans brought extra rushers and it did not slow him down. The Saints sent five or more on 13 of 21 dropbacks, 62%, the second-highest rate of any defense this week, against the 36% Atlanta saw through Week 3. Penix went 8 of 12 for 137 yards against it. The one sack, on third and 6 late in the first quarter, came against it too.

The run game was the night's real smash, and its success rate says so: 61% of 33 rush plays were successful, for 207 yards, five touchdowns and +12.1 EPA. Per play that is +0.37, against +0.03 through Week 3. It came the hard way. New Orleans showed six or fewer in the box on 12 of 33 designed runs, 36%, 21st of 32, down from 45% across the first three weeks. Atlanta gained 157 yards on the 21 runs into seven or more, 7.5 a carry, and 71% of them were successful. Without the 59-yarder those loaded fronts still gave up 4.9 a carry. The 12 runs into light boxes went for 50. Bijan Robinson finished with 19 carries for 145 yards and two touchdowns. Brian Robinson ran 14 times for 62 and three scores, all from the Saints 11 or closer: 4 yards on third and 2, then 8, then 11.

The pass defense let Tyler Shough throw and kept him from throwing well. Only 30 of his 48 throws were charted catchable, 62.5%, 25th of 32 offenses this week, after 77% across his first three games. New Orleans' 50 pass plays came out at +0.7 EPA, barely above zero per play, about where this defense sat through Week 3. Shough threw for 286 yards, no interceptions and one touchdown, with the game long gone. Atlanta sent five or more rushers on 14 of 51 dropbacks, 27.5%, up from 21%, and Shough went 7 of 12 for 39 yards against it. The leaks came on fourth down: 18 yards to Devaughn Vele on fourth and 10 late in the third, 23 to Chris Olave on fourth and 7 with 3:02 left. When the Saints went for it on fourth and 6 from their own 30 with 8:33 left, Ebukam sacked Shough for a 9-yard loss. Brian Robinson scored three carries later.

The run defense was the steadiest unit on the field. New Orleans' 19 rush plays were worth -5.7 EPA, -0.30 a play, against -0.21 through Week 3; on defense, a big negative is good. Only 26% were successful, and the 18 designed runs gained 47 yards, 2.6 apiece, after 3.1 allowed across the first three weeks. Atlanta did it without loading up, showing six or fewer in the box on 10 of the 18, close to its 53% rate through Week 3. Alvin Kamara scored from the 3 and the 5 but gained 23 yards on seven carries.

The game turned on a challenge. First and 10 at the New Orleans 20, 2:52 left in the first quarter, Atlanta up 7-0: Kendre Miller ran at left guard for 3 yards and was ruled down. Atlanta challenged, the call was reversed, and Henderson was credited with forcing the fumble and recovering it at the Saints 22. That snap cost New Orleans 5.9 expected points and 12.8 points of win probability. The Falcons still needed a defensive holding flag on fourth and 4 from the 8, after Penix's throw fell incomplete, before Bijan Robinson scored from the 4 with 52 seconds left. The Saints answered to make it 14-7, and it was never closer than 14 again.

Motion was the one scheme line that dropped: 31 of 72 charted plays, 43%, from 54% through Week 3, while screens held at four, 19% of dropbacks. Atlanta converted 4 of 8 third downs, the defense got 9 stops on 15, and the offense did not turn the ball over.

Last week's question was whether the light boxes would travel from Green Bay, where Atlanta saw six or fewer on 64% of its designed runs. They did not; the yards did. Atlanta averaged 6.3 yards per designed run, up from 4.9 through Week 3, into heavier fronts. Two Penix starts have produced 35 and 45 points. Atlanta did not score more than 34 in any game last season. The Falcons are 2-2: a 20-13 loss at Pittsburgh, a 34-3 home loss to Carolina, then wins at Green Bay and New Orleans.

Scored half-PPR: Bijan Robinson 27.2, Brian Robinson 25.2, Penix 12.7, Dotson 12.4, London 12.1. For the Saints, Kamara 20.3.

The one to watch when Baltimore visits on Sunday night: whether play-action stays near the top of the league, and whether Penix keeps the interception-worthy count at the zero he posted here.

That's your Falcons, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Falcons on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._