Falcons 29, 49ers 20 — Week 7: Four Takeaways, No Giveaways

Atlanta beat San Francisco 29-20 at home on Sunday, handing the 49ers their first loss and moving to 3-4. The Falcons trailed 14-3 after the first snap of the second quarter, went ahead for good on Kyle Pitts's 5-yard touchdown with 9:05 left in the third, and won the turnover battle 4-0. Nine drives produced three touchdowns, three field goals and three three-and-outs, and none ended in a giveaway.

The passing game Smashed, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, says by how much. Its 33 pass plays were worth +9.2 EPA, +0.28 a play against -0.15 through Week 6, and 57.6% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Michael Penix Jr. completed 25 of 34 for 213 yards and three touchdowns, without an interception and without being sacked, a week after five sacks against the Bears. Drake London caught 7 of 10 targets for 66 yards and his first touchdown of the season, and Bijan Robinson caught all 5 of his for 59. The throw that defined it came on the first snap of the fourth quarter, up 19-14: first and 10 at the San Francisco 21, Penix went deep left and London caught it in the end zone, +2.18 EPA and 6.5 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. London had been hurt on the drive's first play and came back before its end.

The run game went backward, and success rate shows how often: only 34.6% of 26 rush plays succeeded, for 85 yards. They were worth -6.3 EPA, -0.24 a play against +0.02 through Week 6. Robinson ran 20 times for 63 yards; his first two carries gained 18, the other 18 gained 45, and a 31-yard run in the third came back on a holding penalty. An aborted snap early in the fourth lost 12 yards.

The pass defense gave up completions and took the ball, and EPA per play allowed shows which won out: San Francisco's 41 pass plays were worth -0.05 a play, against +0.03 allowed through Week 6. On defense a negative number is good. Brock Purdy completed 27 of 40 for 288 yards, and 53.7% of the pass plays succeeded, but the 11 before halftime were worth +4.4 EPA and the 30 after it -6.3. Down 26-20 with 2:42 left, a false start turned third and 4 into third and 9 at the San Francisco 48; Purdy threw short middle for Jordan Watkins, and Kendal Daniels intercepted and returned it 29 yards to the 19, -5.67 EPA and 9.6 points of win probability for San Francisco. Three runs later, Nick Folk's field goal made it 29-20. With 57 seconds left, Jessie Bates forced George Kittle's fumble after a 22-yard catch and Daniels recovered. Za'Darius Smith's sack on fourth and 10 at the Atlanta 23 ended another drive.

The run defense fell short of its standard and still made the biggest play of the game. Success rate allowed opens it: 60.9% of San Francisco's 23 rush plays succeeded, for 123 yards and two touchdowns, worth +2.6 EPA, +0.11 a play against -0.13 allowed through Week 6; here a positive number is bad. Christian McCaffrey ran 7 times for 39 yards and scored on fourth and 1, after Atlanta had stopped Kaelon Black for no gain on second and third down at the 1. Black's 30-yard touchdown opened the second quarter. Then, down 14-9 with 4:24 left in the half, second and 1 at the Atlanta 28, Maason Smith dropped Black for a 1-yard loss and forced a fumble, and Gervon Dexter Sr. recovered: -5.6 EPA and 15.0 points of win probability for San Francisco, the biggest swing of the game.

The game turned on the drive after Bates's interception. Up 19-14 with 5:41 left in the third, San Francisco had second and 14 at the Atlanta 25 when Purdy threw short right for Jacob Cowing and Bates picked it off at the 10, -4.0 EPA and 10.8 points of win probability. Atlanta went 90 yards, and the 49ers kept it moving: Renardo Green's illegal contact on second and 20, Jack Jones's 20-yard pass interference on third and 8, and an offside on third and 2 at the 26. Robinson's 19-yard catch on third and 3 at the Atlanta 25 was the snap Atlanta made itself, +2.07 EPA. London's touchdown followed, and 26-14 held until 5:09 remained.

Last week's notebook asked about extra rushers, the catchable rate and the return game's ball security. The first two wait for the charting, but Penix was not sacked once after five sacks. The return game held on: Zachariah Branch's 61-yard kickoff return set up the first field goal, and Khalil Herbert muffed the second-half kickoff, recovered at the 3 and took it to the 41 to start the go-ahead drive. The one to watch next: whether a run game at -0.24 a play, below zero for a third straight week, gives Robinson room again, and whether a run defense that allowed +0.11 a play gets back to its -0.13.

That's your Falcons, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Falcons on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._