Falcons 17, Bengals 34 — Week 9: Four Drives, Four Bengals Scores

Atlanta lost 34-17 to Cincinnati in Madrid on Sunday, its second straight loss, and fell to 3-6. The Falcons led 10-7 after a quarter and trailed 24-10 at halftime. The Bengals scored on each of their first four drives, three touchdowns and a 57-yard field goal. Atlanta's nine drives produced two touchdowns, a field goal, a missed field goal, an interception and two three-and-outs.

The passing game was better than its season and still below zero, and success rate shows the floor it found: 14 of 31 pass plays, 45.2%, were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, had them at -2.0, -0.06 a play against -0.18 through Week 8. Michael Penix Jr. completed 20 of 31 for 162 yards and a touchdown without being sacked. Drake London caught all 5 of his targets for 68 yards. The offense converted 5 of 10 third downs, a week after going 0 for 12.

The run game Smashed, and total EPA is the measure: 24 rush plays worth +8.2, +0.34 a play against -0.02 through Week 8, its first game above zero since Week 4. Half of them succeeded, for 157 yards and a touchdown. Bijan Robinson ran 19 times for 100 yards and scored from the 1 in the third quarter. Penix added 50 yards on three scrambles. The biggest came tied 7-7 in the first quarter: an offside penalty erased a third-down incompletion, and on third and 5 at the Cincinnati 40 he ran left for 23 yards to the 17, +2.8 EPA and 8.6 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. The drive stalled inside the 10. From first and goal at the 7, a 6-yard Penix scramble to the 1 came back on Matthew Bergeron's holding penalty, a false start followed, and Nick Folk kicked from 31 for 10-7.

The pass defense was Muffed, and EPA allowed per play says how badly: Cincinnati's 31 pass plays were worth +16.3, +0.53 a play against +0.00 allowed through Week 8, the worst game this season by that measure. On defense a positive number is bad. Joe Burrow completed 24 of 29 for 271 yards and three touchdowns without an interception, and Ja'Marr Chase caught 10 of 12 targets for 155. Up 7-0 in the first quarter, third and 2 at the Atlanta 47, Burrow went deep right to Chase for a 47-yard touchdown, -13.3 points of win probability for Atlanta, the largest swing of the game. The damage was done before halftime: 22 pass plays worth +17.5, then 9 after it worth -1.2. LaCale London and Zach Harrison had the sacks.

The run defense gave up 5.4 yards a carry, 124 yards on 23 rush plays, and EPA per play allowed puts it at +0.12 against -0.09 through Week 8; here, too, positive is bad. Chase Brown ran 9 times for 57 and Samaje Perine 11 times for 43. The goal line held once: first and goal at the 1 in the second quarter, LaCale London and Jessie Bates stopped Brown for no gain, and Burrow scored on the next snap.

The game turned on two Cincinnati drives either side of Atlanta's first three-and-out. Up 10-7 late in the first quarter, Atlanta let the Bengals go 70 yards in 11 plays for Burrow's 1-yard touchdown. A delay of game and a third-and-6 incompletion for Kyle Pitts handed it straight back, and Cincinnati went 88 yards in 10 plays and 6:43. Chase converted third and 1 with an 11-yard catch that Atlanta challenged and lost, and third and 9 with a 14-yarder. Gervon Dexter Sr.'s 9-yard sack at the 30 came off for A.J. Terrell's holding, and Tee Higgins scored from the 4 two snaps later. Atlanta's win probability went from 58.5% to 19.7% across those two drives. After Robinson's touchdown made it 24-17, Cincinnati answered with 73 yards and Higgins's second score, and Folk's 38-yarder went wide left early in the fourth after a holding penalty on Pitts turned third and 2 at the 10 into third and 12.

Last week's episode asked whether Penix, after four interceptions in 24 throws at Tampa Bay, would stop giving the ball away. He threw one in 31 here, down 34-17 with 4:06 left, when Barrett Carter picked off a throw for Robinson at the Atlanta 43. The one to watch next: whether a pass defense that allowed +0.53 a play here, its worst game of the season, gets back toward the +0.00 it allowed through Week 8.

That's your Falcons, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Falcons on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._