Bills, Week 1 — What Repeats: One Blitzer, One Contested Ball

Houston sent a charted extra rusher at Buffalo once on Sunday. One blitzer, on one of 33 Buffalo dropbacks. Five or more rushers came on five of the 33 — 15 percent — and the average was 4.2 rushers per dropback. Across all of last season Buffalo's offense saw five or more rushers on 29 percent of its dropbacks and an extra rusher on 31 percent. So the defense that finished first in the league against the pass a year ago rushed four on most snaps, and Josh Allen threw into a contested window once in 30 throws. Three percent, against 13 percent for Allen across his 467 charted throws last season. 334 yards, no interceptions, and no sack charted as his fault on his 32 dropbacks — after 19 quarterback-fault sacks last season, close to four percent of his dropbacks.

What he did not do was hit his usual accuracy. Charters marked 21 of his 30 throws catchable — 70 percent, nineteenth-highest in the league this week, a point under the median and six under his own 76 from last season. None of the 21 was dropped; last season his receivers dropped 22 of his catchable balls. One throw was charted interception-worthy — three percent, the seventeenth-highest rate in the league this week, a shade under the median and under his own four percent from a year ago — and it was not caught. One throwaway. Six play-action throws went five for 82 yards; the other 24 went 15 for 252.

The scheme number that moved most is motion, and it moved down. Buffalo put a man in motion on 26 of 72 charted plays — 36 percent, 20-ninth in the league this week against a median of 45. Across all of last season this offense used motion on 49 percent of its charted plays. Play-action was seven of 33 dropbacks, 21 percent, eighteenth in the league and right on the median, after 26 percent last season. Two screens on 33 dropbacks after nine percent last season; two run-pass options on 52 snaps after seven percent. Whatever Buffalo was in Houston, it was a simpler offense on the sheet than the one that finished third in the league in expected points per play a year ago — fewer moving parts before the snap, fewer fakes after it — and it produced the second-best passing afternoon of the 16 early games.

The run game the Recap ranked fifteenth of 16 saw boxes close to its own norm. Houston showed a light box — six or fewer defenders — on six of 19 designed Buffalo runs, 32 percent, the eighth-lowest share of light boxes in the league this week against a median of 47, and last season this offense saw a light box 37 percent of the time. An average of 6.8 in the box on Sunday; 6.8 across last season. Against Houston's own baseline, which the Texans episode carries, that was a heavier look than that defense usually shows. 19 designed runs went for 66 yards, and James Cook's 13 carries went for 57. The Recap's 87 on the ground includes Allen's scrambles, which the box count does not, so the number to keep is 66 on 19, from a run game that finished first in the league on the ground a year ago.

On defense, Buffalo sent five or more rushers on 14 of Houston's 42 dropbacks — 33 percent, eleventh-highest in the league this week against a median of 27, after 25 percent for this defense across last season — though the average rush, 4.3, did not move, and a charted extra rusher came on 13 of the 42, 31 percent, the same as last season. So more five-man looks, not more bodies overall. It showed four light boxes on 31 designed Houston runs, 13 percent, the second-fewest any offense saw this week, against 49 percent for opponents of this defense last season, with an average of 7.1 in the box, and those 31 designed runs went for a hundred and nine yards. What C.J. Stroud's throws looked like: 25 of 38 catchable, 66 percent, a point under the 67 this defense allowed last season; five contested; no drops; no interception-worthy throws on 38, where this defense drew one on three percent of throws a year ago. Both of the Recap's takeaways were strip-sacks, and none of the three sacks the Recap counted was charted as Stroud's fault. His nine play-action throws went five for 30 yards; his other 29 went 21 for 244.

The stat lines have settled, so here they are, scored half-PPR. Allen led everyone with 35.7 — 20 of 29 for 334 two touchdowns, no interceptions, +6 carries for 23 two more scores. DJ Moore, 18 and a half: five catches for a hundred on eight targets and a touchdown. Dalton Kincaid five for a hundred and 30 on six targets, 15 and a half. Josh Palmer one catch on two targets, 34 yards and the touchdown that won it, 9.9. Cook, 8.4 — 13 carries for 57 three catches for 12. Khalil Shakir four for 50 on six targets. For Houston, David Montgomery ran 20 times for 62 touchdowns and caught all three of his targets for 19 and a third score, 27.4; Nico Collins caught seven of 10 targets for 75 and a touchdown, 17.7; Stroud was 26 of 38 for 274 two touchdowns, 16 and a half.

Now the yardstick, because the name of this show implies one we do not have yet. There has been one game. Every "last season" above means the whole of last year — an offense with some different faces, everyone a year further on, a few of them in new roles. Through Week 3 there is nothing else to measure against, and that comparison earns its keep by telling you what was out of the ordinary on Sunday. It cannot tell you what is normal for this team now. When the within-season version starts around Week 4 — Buffalo against its own recent weeks — we will say so, and until then we will name the baseline every time.

The thread starts here, so here is the whole of it. A year ago this offense finished third in the league in expected points per play and first on the ground, and the defense thirteenth overall, seventh against the pass, thirtieth against the run. Three things go in the notebook. A quarterback who threw into one contested window in 30 throws, against a defense that sent an extra rusher once — the figure most dependent on what the opponent does. A motion rate down 13 points from last season. And a run game that saw boxes close to its own norm and produced 66 yards on 19 designed runs, which is the thing the Recap was least sure about and the charting has not made anyone surer of. That third one is the one to watch.

That's your Bills — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Bills show wherever you're listening, so next week's recap lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

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_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._