Bills 24, Chargers 16 — Week 3: Five Giveaways, Still Unbeaten

Fourth and six at the Chargers' 43, 11 15 left in the game, Buffalo down 13 to 10. The drive existed because of the defense: it started at the Buffalo 42, where Gardner-Johnson had brought back an interception of Justin Herbert from the Buffalo one. Josh Allen threw short left to Ty Johnson, and Johnson went 43 yards into the end zone. A flag came back: offensive holding on Dawson Knox, marked from the 14, so no touchdown, but still a first down at the 24. By win probability, the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment, that snap was worth 19 points, one of the two biggest swings of the game along with Herbert's interception. By expected points added, what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth, +4.4. Two more offensive holding calls followed, one of them wiping out a 16-yard Allen scramble to the four, and Buffalo was facing second and 26 at the Chargers' 40. Allen scrambled for eight, a defensive holding flag added five, and a fumble on the play was overturned on review. Then Cook for 11, Cook for 11, Cook for four, and Allen from the one with seven 37 left. Buffalo's first lead of the day. Bills 24, Chargers 16, and three and oh.

Start with the thing that should have lost it. Buffalo turned the ball over five times, after none in the first two weeks. Counting every turnover, special teams included, its margin of −4 is the worst of the 28 teams that have played so far this week, and only two of the 92 team games this season have finished at −4 or worse. Atlanta lost its; Buffalo won. Three of the first four possessions ended in a turnover: Cook's fumble on the first snap from scrimmage, then two interceptions by Smith on consecutive possessions, the second on the first snap of the second quarter. Later came a 24-yard completion to Dalton Kincaid on third and eight, fumbled after a hit by Still and recovered by the Chargers at their 17, and the strip-sack on third and 13 to open the fourth. The Chargers turned all of it into 10 points. And for all that, Buffalo did not go three-and-out once, one of seven teams so far this week at zero.

The passing game is where the turnovers came from, and it had its worst day of the season. 30 pass plays, a count that includes four sacks, were worth −5.4 expected points and 174 yards net of sacks, with no touchdowns and two interceptions. That is 20-third of the 28 teams so far this week by expected points per play. Buffalo's passing game ranked third in the league in Week 1 and fifth in Week 2; at the rate it played over those two games, these 30 plays would have been worth about +14. At last season's rate, when it ranked fourth, about +5. What it still did well was third down: seven of 12, tied for fifth of the 28 teams this week, though one of the seven was the Kincaid catch that ended in a fumble. The end of the first half shows it. Down 10 to three, ball at the Buffalo 20 with four oh five left, Allen converted third and four and third and seven to Moore, then with 26 seconds left went deep right to Keon Coleman for 37 yards to the one, +3.6 expected points and 10 points of win probability. Allen scored on the next snap. 10 to 10 at the half.

The run game carried the rest. Five of every eight Buffalo rush plays were successful, meaning they gained what the situation asked for, second of the 28 teams so far this week behind only Atlanta. 32 rush plays, 177 yards, three touchdowns, +4.1 expected points, third of the 28 by expected points per play, tied with Pittsburgh. The opponent matters here: the Chargers' run defense was in the league's top five last season and took 11 and a half expected points off the Raiders a week earlier. At the rate it had allowed over the first two weeks, 32 carries would have been worth about −6. Buffalo got +4. 15 of those runs came in the fourth quarter, for 97 yards. The second snap after the Chargers' fourth-down stop: second and seven at the Chargers' 42, four 24 left, up 17 to 13, Cook through the right guard for 23 to the 19. On third and 10 from there Allen found Moore for 16 to the three, and Cook scored. 10 red-zone snaps produced three touchdowns, all three on the ground, fourth of the 27 teams this week that reached the red zone.

The pass defense had the better story of the two defensive units. 36 Chargers pass plays were worth −6.4 expected points, and on defense a negative number is the good direction. That is seventh of the 28 teams so far this week, and a turnaround from Week 2, when Detroit threw four touchdown passes and the pass defense ranked 20-seventh. At the rate it allowed over the first two weeks, those 36 plays would have been worth about +9; at last season's rate, when it ranked in the league's top 10, about −4. So this was better than both. Gardner-Johnson had the interception at the one, and another in the end zone in the third quarter that a defensive holding call wiped out. The defense had two sacks. And on the Chargers' final drive Oliver forced a fumble that Alford returned 87 yards for a touchdown, reversed on review to an incompletion.

The run defense allowed 28 rush plays 131 yards and +1.8 expected points, 20-second of the 28 teams so far this week. At last season's rate, when it ranked in the league's bottom three, those carries would have been worth about +3, so this was about the same run defense as a year ago. Where it held was close to the goal line. The Chargers ran 15 snaps inside the Buffalo 20 and scored one touchdown. On the opening drive of the second half they had first and goal at the three, got to the one, and after two false starts settled for a field goal. On the fourth down that set up Cook's run, fourth and 10 at the Chargers' 45 with five 14 left, Herbert's throw to Vidal fell incomplete.

For anyone new to this show, here is where that sits. Last season Buffalo went 12 five with the league's best run game by expected points per play, a passing game fourth, a pass defense in the top 10, a third-down offense in the top four, and a run defense in the bottom three. Week 1 was a 36 to 31 win at Houston in which the passing game ranked third in the league. Week 2 was a 41 to 31 win at home over Detroit on a Thursday: the most points any team scored that week, the best run game and third-down rate in the league that week, and a pass defense that allowed four touchdown passes. No giveaways in either game. Sunday reversed two of those lines. The pass defense had its best game of the three, and the passing game its worst, with five giveaways after none. The run game held, and that is the unit that won it. Three games do not settle a season, but Buffalo is three and oh, and this was the first of the three it won without its passing game.

Buffalo is at home against New England on Sunday afternoon, October fourth.

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_Data via nflverse._