Bears 59, Panthers 37 — Week 1: Eight Touchdowns and 291 on the Ground

Chicago scored 59 points in Charlotte on Sunday. Eight touchdowns, six of them on the ground, and 291 rushing yards on 39 rushing plays. It was tied 31 to 31 with nine minutes left in the third quarter, and from there the Bears scored 28 of the next 34 points. 59 to 37, final, and the whole afternoon lives in two numbers: the offense produced +29 expected points, and the defense gave 11 of them back.

Start with the run game, because it was the best unit on the field and it was not close. 39 rushing plays, 291 yards, six touchdowns, and +15 expected points added. Expected points added is what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, and +15 across 39 carries is the best rushing afternoon any team produced in Sunday's early games. 19 of the 39 were successful, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. The second half is where it went from good to decisive: 19 rushing plays after halftime for a hundred 66 yards and +11 expected points. Kyle Monangai's 61-yard touchdown up the middle came on the first play after Carolina turned it over on downs, 50 seconds left in the third quarter, from the Chicago 39, up 38 to 31. D'Andre Swift's 28-yard touchdown behind the right guard with three 47 to play closed the scoring. And the quarterback's legs count here too, because a scramble is a rushing play: Caleb Williams took one around left end for nine yards and a touchdown on third and six with six oh three left in the first quarter, and another around left end for 29 yards and a touchdown with 32 seconds left in the half.

The passing game was the third-best of the 16 teams in the early games by expected points per pass play, and it was efficient rather than heavy: 31 pass plays, 269 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions, +14 expected points. 19 of the 31 were successful, second-best rate of those 16. The throw that opened the game up was second and eight from the Chicago 47 with three oh one left in the first quarter, tied at seven, deep right to Rome Odunze, pushed out at the Carolina six, 47 yards and 15 points of win probability. Three plays later Swift scored from the one. The drive that ended the half was the other one to remember. Tied 24 to 24, first and 10 from the Chicago 20 with two 31 left, Williams was sacked on the first play, then hit Kalif Raymond deep left for 28 on third and 11, then Luther Burden deep left for 24 on second and 10, then ran it in himself from the 29. Six plays, 80 yards, and the Bears led at halftime in a game they had trailed seven to nothing. Chicago converted 10 of 14 third downs, the best rate of the early games.

Now the defense, which is the reason this was a 59 to 37 game and not a 59 to 17 one. Carolina ran 40 pass plays and gained 10 expected points doing it. On defense a big negative number is the good direction; +10 allowed is eleventh of the 16 early-game teams. 361 yards through the air, three touchdowns. The two that hurt were both deep: Bryce Young to Jalen Coker deep left for 51 yards and a touchdown on second and five from the Carolina 49 with 12 49 left in the second quarter, and Young to Jonathon Brooks deep right for 48 on second and 10 from the Carolina 26 with three 41 left in the half, which set up the field goal that tied it at 24. The run defense allowed a hundred 25 yards on 22 carries and two touchdowns, and 12 of those 22 were successful for Carolina — the worst rate of the 16. Carolina had 10 snaps inside the Chicago 20 and scored four touchdowns on them. What the defense did do was take the ball away twice: Malik Muhammad intercepted a deep ball for Coker with 11 seconds left in the half, and on the first play of the fourth quarter Jaylon Johnson knocked the ball loose from Tetairoa McMillan after a 21-yard catch, and Devin Bush recovered at the Chicago 39. 12 plays later it was 51 to 31.

The biggest swing of the game was not an offensive play at all. Tied 21 to 21, seven oh seven left in the half, Tory Taylor punted from the Chicago 30, Jimmy Horn muffed the catch at the Carolina 22, and Kaden Davis recovered at the 28. 20 points of win probability on one bounce. Chicago got a 40-yard field goal out of it, and never trailed again.

Two things in the ledger that were not good. On the opening drive, a seven-yard completion to Burden was the ball that Bobby Okereke knocked loose and Carolina recovered at the Chicago 42; the Panthers scored six plays later. And with 10 35 left in the second quarter, up 21 to 14, Chicago went for it on fourth and one at its own 21, Williams was stopped for no gain, and Carolina scored three plays later. Nine points of win probability on that one decision. 15 snaps inside the Carolina 20 produced four touchdowns, which is ordinary — the other four touchdowns came from outside it.

Now the part where a Week 1 episode has to be honest about what it is. The ranks in this episode are against the 16 teams that played in the early window on Sunday, not the whole league. What there is, is last year. In 2025 this offense finished eighth in the league in expected points per play and fourth on the ground, and it won 11 games. On Sunday the run game looked like that unit and then some, and the passing game, which succeeded on 43 percent of its plays a year ago, 20-fourth in the league, succeeded on 61 percent of them on Sunday. The defense finished nineteenth in expected points allowed per play last season, 20-fifth in the rate of plays it allowed to succeed, and first in the league with 33 takeaways. On Sunday it was the same shape: it allowed 37 points, and it took the ball away twice. If you want one sentence out of this: the offense scored 59, and the defense is the question it was in January, and one game against one opponent does not settle either.

Chicago is home to Minnesota next Sunday. Watch whether the run game holds up against a division defense, and watch the pass defense, in that order.

That's your Bears — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Bears show wherever you're listening, so next week's recap lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

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_Data via nflverse._