Bears, Week 1 — What Repeats: Williams Put Zero Up for Grabs

Caleb Williams threw 29 passes on Sunday and not one of them was charted as interception-worthy. 22 of the 29 were catchable, 76 percent, tied for ninth in the league this week against a median of 71. His receivers dropped none of them. Across all of last season Williams was catchable on 66 percent of his throws and put 18 interception-worthy balls in the air on 572, which is 3.1 percent. Sunday was zero on 29, and Chicago was one of nine offenses in the league that put nothing up for grabs this week. The Recap had the 59 points and the 291 yards on the ground. The charting says the quarterback's afternoon was the cleanest kind.

Add what he was throwing against. Carolina sent five or more rushers on 14 of Chicago's 38 dropbacks, 37 percent, the eighth-highest rate any defense used in the league this week. Last season this offense faced five or more on 31 percent of its dropbacks, so this was more heat than it was used to, not less. Five of Williams's throws were contested, a receiver and a defender arriving together, 17 percent against 12 percent last year. So he threw into more traffic than usual, against five or more rushers more often than usual, and put nothing up for grabs. Three throwaways, and no quarterback-fault sacks charged to him.

The play-action figure is one to hear with the run game in mind, because it does not go the way the story wants. Chicago used play-action on 13 of 38 dropbacks, 34 percent, sixth in the league this week, and last season it used it on 32 percent. So the fakes were there at the usual rate. What they produced was not the passing yardage: Williams's 10 play-action throws went five completions for 64 yards, and his 19 other throws went 16 completions for 205. The 269 passing yards mostly came on throws without play-action.

Now the run game against the box, because 232 yards on 32 designed runs deserves the question of what it ran into. Carolina showed a light box, six or fewer, on 19 of the 32, 59 percent, the eleventh-highest share of light boxes any offense saw this week, with the median at 47. Last season Chicago ran into a light box on 53 percent of its designed runs, with an average of six and a half in the box; Sunday the average was 6.4. That is a box a little lighter than usual, not an empty one. The 32 runs went for 232 yards against a front that, by the count of the men in it, was ordinary. The charting only rules out the answer that Carolina left the box empty.

The defense sent five or more on 14 of 43 Carolina dropbacks, 33 percent, twelfth in the league this week and a few points above the 28 percent it used last season, with an average of four and a half rushers per dropback. What Carolina's passers did against it is the number for the notebook. Their throws were catchable 63 percent of the time, 20-fourth in the league this week. One of 38 was charted interception-worthy. Chicago intercepted one pass, and the charting does not say whether it was that throw. Six were throwaways. And here is the comparison: across all of last season, the quarterbacks Chicago faced put 27 interception-worthy balls in the air on 538 throws, five percent, and Chicago intercepted 23. This defense fed on loose throws a year ago. On Sunday Carolina's passers put one ball up for grabs on 38 throws, and Chicago intercepted one; the pack cannot say whether it was the same throw. Young's eight play-action throws went five completions for a hundred 20 yards, and his other 29 went 18 for 241. Against the run, Chicago showed a light box on nine of Carolina's 19 designed runs, 47 percent, well under the 56 percent it showed last season, and those 19 runs gained 91 yards.

The rest of the scheme did not move, and that is worth a sentence. Motion on 42 of 95 charted plays, 44 percent, nineteenth in the league this week; last season, 46. Screens on three of 38 dropbacks, eight percent; last season, nine. Run-pass option on two of 70 snaps; last season, five percent. No-huddle on six percent of snaps; last season, five. The offense that scored 59 was, by the charted shape of it, the offense from last year.

The stat lines have settled, so here they are, scored half-PPR. Caleb Williams, 37.3: 21 of 29 for 269 two touchdowns, +10 carries for 65 two rushing scores. D'Andre Swift, 31.9, on 18 carries for a hundred 24 three touchdowns, with one catch for 10. Kyle Monangai, 10 carries for a hundred yards and a touchdown, two catches for 24. Kalif Raymond led the receivers with eight catches for 84 on nine targets. Cole Kmet caught two of three for 35 and a touchdown; Luther Burden caught all five of his targets for 63; Rome Odunze two for 52 on three. For Carolina, Bryce Young went 23 of 37 for 361, three touchdowns and one interception, with a rushing touchdown; Jalen Coker caught eight of nine for a hundred 38 two scores, and Chuba Hubbard scored twice, once on the ground and once through the air.

Before the notebook, the comparison itself needs naming. Everything above sets Sunday beside last season, because through Week 3 there is no within-season baseline to set it beside. Last season's Bears are not these Bears: the roster is different, the people who stayed are a year older, some of them are doing a different job. Measured against that, a figure tells you it is unusual. It does not tell you it is real. The version of this show that measures the Bears against their own last few weeks arrives around Week 4, and until it does, every comparison here comes with this label on it.

The thread starts here. The Recap put down the frame: an offense that finished eighth in expected points per play last season and fourth on the ground, and a defense that finished nineteenth in expected points allowed and first in the league with 33 takeaways. The charting writes three lines under it. Williams was catchable on 76 percent and put nothing up for grabs, against a season of 66 3.1. The run game gained 232 yards on 32 designed runs against a box that was, by the count, ordinary. And the defense that lived on loose throws last season saw one on Sunday. 29 throws is one afternoon. The question the rest of the season answers is whether the clean quarterback is the new one or the box just looked easy for a day.

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_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._