Bears 3, Vikings 9 — Week 2: Fifteen Red Zone Snaps, No Points

First and goal at the Minnesota one, nine 42 left in the third quarter, Bears down six to three. D'Andre Swift ran right tackle for no gain, Jalen Redmond knocked the ball out, and Isaiah Rodgers recovered it at the one. By expected points it was the most costly snap of the game for either team, and it took Chicago from a 64 percent chance of winning to 44. It was also only the first of three. A 23-yard field goal to tie the game was blocked with six 26 left, and the game ended on a fourth-down sack from the Minnesota 12. One week after scoring 59 points in Carolina, the Bears lost nine to three at home to the Vikings, never led, and trailed for a little over 44 of the 60 minutes. Three points ties Atlanta and Pittsburgh for the fewest of the 28 teams that have played this week.

Start where the game was lost, inside the Minnesota 20. Chicago ran 15 red-zone snaps. They gained 21 yards and scored nothing, and by expected points added they were worth about −9.9. Expected points added is what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, so that is nearly 10 points of value handed back where points are supposed to come from. The offense as a whole finished at about −8.6 on 69 pass and rush plays, which means the other 54 were slightly positive. A week ago the Bears also ran 15 red-zone snaps, and scored four touchdowns on them. The second trip this week went fourth and one at the eight, Kyle Monangai over right guard for two to keep it alive, then a sack of Caleb Williams for no gain at the six, a one-yard completion, an incompletion, and the kick that Rodgers blocked. That block was the biggest swing of the day by win probability, 25 points, from 55 percent to 30. The third trip was the final drive: down nine to three, Chicago reached the Minnesota 12 in the final half minute, threw two incompletions, and on fourth and two with one second left Dallas Turner sacked Tyson Bagent for a loss of nine.

The play-by-play also says this, and it is all it says: Williams was injured on that sack at the six with seven 42 left, and Bagent took every snap at quarterback from there.

The first half had a different problem, and it was yellow. Seven accepted penalties on the offense before halftime, 53 yards. The interception came on third and 12 from the Chicago 40, right after an offside had made it third and seven and a delay of game put it back to third and 12; Williams threw deep over the middle for Luther Burden and Byron Murphy caught it at the Minnesota 36. Then Chicago's longest drive of the half. Down six to three, Williams hit Swift for three on fourth and three, and the Bears had first and 10 at the Minnesota 30 with three minutes left. Then an illegal shift wiped out a 14-yard completion to the 16, then a hold, then intentional grounding, then a false start. Four flags, 33 yards, and the possession ended with a punt on fourth and 29 from the Minnesota 49. In all, five Chicago drives reached the Minnesota 32 or closer, and the five produced three points, Cairo Santos from 50 in the first quarter.

The passing game's number is its success rate, the share of snaps that kept the offense on schedule: 29 percent, and of the 28 teams that have played this week only Cincinnati's was lower. 38 pass plays were worth −3.7 expected points, twentieth per play so far this week. Last season this passing offense ranked tenth, and at that rate the same 38 plays would have been worth about +3. Last week, 31 pass plays were worth +13.9. Four sacks taken, the worst of them a 17-yard loss with 15 seconds left in the half. The best play of the day: third and seven at the Chicago 36, 11 42 left in the fourth, a short throw left to Swift that went 32 yards, 15 points of win probability, on the drive that ended in the block. Third down overall was five of 15, tied for nineteenth so far this week. Eight of those needed seven yards or more, and two converted. A week ago it was 10 of 14.

The run game is the sharper fall. 31 rush plays gained a hundred 34 yards, seventh-most so far this week, and were worth −5 expected points. 19 of the 31 gained three yards or fewer. Last week this was the most valuable run game in the league: 39 plays, 291 yards, six touchdowns, +14.7 expected points. Last season it ranked fourth, and at that rate these 31 plays would have been worth about +2.4. The one stretch that looked like Week 1 opened the third quarter. Swift for 12, a Williams scramble for 11, Monangai for 15, Monangai for 12, four of the team's six runs of 10 yards or more inside four minutes. It ended with the fumble at the one.

The defense is the other contradiction, and it runs the good way. Minnesota gained 262 yards. Of the 28 teams that have played this week, only Seattle and the Jets have allowed fewer. A week ago this defense gave up 486, 20-ninth of 32. The Vikings threw for a hundred 43 yards, and only Seattle has allowed fewer so far this week. They ran one red-zone play all day. On third down the defense got 10 stops in 13 tries, 77 percent, third-best so far this week behind the Jets and New England, and that includes all three Minnesota tries on third and one or two. Three sacks, two of them on third down. The expected-points view is calmer, and on defense a negative number is the good direction: 23 pass plays allowed +0.5, thirteenth per play so far this week and almost exactly what last season's eighteenth-ranked pass defense would have allowed, while 28 rush plays allowed −4.5 against a last-season rate that comes out to zero. What the defense did not do was take the ball away. Minnesota fumbled a snap on third and two in the first quarter and recovered it 22 yards behind the line. And the one drive it needed most got away. After the block, the Vikings converted third and five from their own 17, moved to the Chicago 21, and kicked the field goal that made it nine to three with a minute 12 left.

Now the thread, for anyone joining this week. Last season the Bears went 11 six with an offense that ranked tenth passing, fourth rushing and eighth on third down, and a defense that ranked eighteenth against the pass, nineteenth against the run and 20-second in third-down stops. Week 1 was that team turned up: 59 to 37 at Carolina, 560 yards, the most in the league, the run game first and the passing game fourth by expected points per play, and a pass defense that ranked 20-fifth. This week was the reverse on both sides of the ball, against a Vikings defense that ranked second against the pass and sixth against the run a year ago. The honest update is a narrow one. The offense moved it, 326 yards and one three-and-out all day, and then did nothing with it; the defense beat both last week and last season's ranks on yardage and on third down. Two games do not settle which week was the real one.

Chicago is at home against Philadelphia next, on Monday night. Watch the red zone first, and watch whether the third-down defense travels into a second week.

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_Data via nflverse._