Bears, Week 2 — What Repeats: Seven in the Box, Five Rushing

No offense in the league saw five or more pass rushers as often as Chicago did on Sunday. Minnesota sent five or more on 31 of the Bears' 41 dropbacks, 76 percent, first of the 32 offenses this week. Buffalo was next at 55. Last season Chicago faced five or more on 31 percent of its dropbacks, and in Carolina last week, 37. And on the runs, Minnesota filled the box. It showed six or fewer defenders on only seven of Chicago's 28 designed runs, 25 percent, 20-sixth of the 32 offenses this week, with an average of seven in the box. Last season this offense saw a light box on 53 percent of its designed runs, and last week 59. On average, five men came at the passer and seven stood in front of the run. The offense that looked like last year's in Week 1 met a defense that looked nothing like Carolina's.

Start with the run game. 28 designed runs, with scrambles left out, gained 107 yards, 3.8 a carry, eighteenth of the 32 offenses this week. Last week 32 designed runs gained 232, seven and a quarter a carry, the most in the league, against a box that averaged 6.4. Across last season this offense gained about 4.7 per designed run. The charting can show the extra body in the box. It cannot show whether that body is the whole story, so hold the two weeks side by side.

The shape of the offense changed too, and this is the figure to carry into the next game. Motion on 25 of 87 charted plays, 29 percent, thirtieth of the 32 offenses this week, third-lowest in the league. Last season it was 46 percent, last week 44. Minnesota's own motion rate was also low, 20-seventh, so part of this may belong to the game rather than the team. Play-action fell with it: nine of 41 dropbacks, 22 percent, twentieth this week, after 34 percent in Carolina and 32 across last season. Williams's four play-action throws went two completions for 13 yards; his 22 other throws went 13 for 125. Screens on two of 41 dropbacks, five percent, against nine last season. No run-pass options, after five percent of snaps last year. Last week the charted shape said this was last season's offense. This week it did not, and the charting can say what changed, not why.

Now the quarterback, where the line reads more like last season than like a collapse. Caleb Williams threw 26 charted passes and 18 were catchable, 69 percent, a little above the 66 he posted across last season and below the 76 he posted in Carolina. One of his 26 was charted interception-worthy, about four percent, near his three percent from last year. That was the throw Byron Murphy intercepted. Two throwaways. Tyson Bagent, who took over with seven 42 to play, threw nine: five catchable, two contested, one interception-worthy. As a team that made two interception-worthy balls on 35 throws, almost six percent, fourth-highest in the league this week, after none on 29 in Week 1. Chicago's quarterbacks were out of the pocket on 13 of 41 dropbacks, 32 percent, third-highest this week. Last week it was the highest in the league, and across last season it was 30 percent, so leaving the pocket is how this offense plays, not something new against Minnesota. Four sacks, and none was charged to the quarterback's own fault.

The receivers are the other half of the passing line. Three drops on 23 catchable balls, 13 percent, tied with Green Bay for third-highest of the 32 offenses this week. Last season this offense dropped eight percent of its catchable balls, and last week none. All three came on Williams's throws. Only three of the 35 throws were contested, a receiver and a defender arriving together, against 12 percent last season, so the incompletions were not mostly traffic. The team's catchable rate, 66 percent, matched last season's to the whole percent.

The defense leads on a different number: how few of Minnesota's throws were catchable. 12 of 20, 60 percent, the third-lowest rate any of the 32 defenses allowed this week. Last season the passers Chicago faced were catchable on 73 percent of their throws; last week Carolina's were at 63. None of the 20 was contested, tied with Philadelphia for the lowest. One was interception-worthy, and none was intercepted, from a defense that intercepted 23 passes last season. Chicago sent five or more rushers on 12 of Minnesota's 24 dropbacks, half of them, sixth-highest this week, against 28 percent last season and 33 in Week 1. Where Minnesota found its passing yards was play-action: eight of 24 dropbacks, 33 percent, the seventh-highest rate any defense faced this week, and Carson Wentz's eight play-action throws went five for 95 yards against six for 48 on his other 12. That is the leak to watch next time out: not the drop-back game, the fake.

Against the run Chicago crowded the box as well. Six or fewer on seven of Minnesota's 27 designed runs, 26 percent, 20-fifth this week, with seven and a third in the box on average. Last season Chicago showed a light box on 56 percent of the designed runs it faced, and in Week 1 47. The 27 runs gained 115 yards, 4.3 a carry, tenth-most allowed this week, and under the 4.8 this defense allowed per designed run across last season.

The stat lines have settled, scored half-PPR. D'Andre Swift led the team at 10.4: 16 carries for 45 five catches on five targets for 54. Williams, 7.7, 15 of 26 for 138 with the interception, +5 carries for 42. Kyle Monangai ran 10 times for 47 and caught two for 11. Kalif Raymond caught all five of his targets for 40, Rome Odunze three of four for 43, Luther Burden the third three of seven for 32, and Colston Loveland one of three for three. Bagent went five of nine for 54. For Minnesota, Aaron Jones ran 23 times for 105, 10.5, the best total on the field; Justin Jefferson caught three of six for 55; Wentz went 11 of 20 for 143.

The comparison needs its label again. Every figure here is set against last season or against last week, because there is no run of this season's weeks to set it against yet. Last season's Bears had a different roster and every returning player is a year older; last week is one game, not a season rate. A number measured that way tells you something is unusual. It does not yet tell you it is real. The version of this show that measures the Bears against their own recent weeks begins around Week 4.

What repeated, then, across two games. The quarterbacks left the pocket often both weeks, which matches last season rather than departing from it. The defense sent five or more more often than last year both weeks, and opposing passers were catchable less often than last year both weeks. Those are the first signs worth writing down. Almost everything else on offense reversed: interception-worthy throws from none to two, drops from none to three, the box from light to heavy, and play-action and motion from last season's levels to well below them. Two games settle none of it.

For a first-time listener: last season the Bears went 11 six with an offense that ranked tenth passing and fourth rushing and a defense that ranked eighteenth against the pass, all by expected points per play. They opened this season 59 to 37 at Carolina and lost nine to three at home to Minnesota on Sunday. The notebook now holds two lines. On defense, two weeks of fewer catchable throws allowed than a year ago. On offense, one week that looked like last year and one that did not, against the most frequent rush of five or more and the seventh-lowest light-box rate of the 32 offenses this week. Whether the motion and the play-action come back when the box empties is the question the next game answers first.

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_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._