Bears 27, Eagles 7 — Week 3: Three Turnovers, Never Trailed

Fourth and one at the Philadelphia 32, 10 52 left in the first quarter, no score, on the opening drive. Case Keenum — taking every Bears snap at quarterback with Caleb Williams out with a hamstring strain, per the Bears' own team site — threw short left to Sam Roush for 16 yards. By expected points added, what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth, that was +2.6. By win probability, the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment, it was about 10 and a half points, the biggest swing on a Chicago snap all night. Three plays later, third and two from the eight, Keenum found Luther Burden over the middle for the touchdown, six to nothing with eight 56 left in the first and seven after the kick. Chicago led for the remaining 54 minutes of game clock, never trailed, and the model never had the Bears below the 55 percent it gave them at kickoff. The Bears' passing game took no sack and threw no interception. 27 to seven, Monday night at home.

Start with the pass defense. 28 Philadelphia pass plays — that count includes sacks — were worth −20.1 expected points; on defense a negative number is the good direction. That was the best of the 32 teams this week, and per play, −0.7, the best pass-defense game any team has posted in the 96 played this season; by total, third. A hundred 41 net passing yards allowed was third-fewest this week. At the rate this defense allowed over the first two weeks, 28 plays would have been worth about +4.7; at last season's rate, when it ranked in the middle of the league, about +1. Five snaps did most of it — two interceptions, two sacks and a fumble recovery, together worth 14 and a half expected points — and the other 23 Eagles pass plays were still −5.6. The first was a Tank Bigsby fumble in the first quarter, forced by Austin Booker and recovered by Xavier Woods at the Philadelphia 15. The biggest came at the goal line, third and two from the two with Chicago up seven to nothing, after the Eagles had gone from their own three to first and goal at the one and come up empty on two runs: Dillon Thieneman intercepted Andy Dalton — in for Hurts, marked injured on an earlier scramble in the play-by-play — in the end zone. 13 points of win probability, the largest swing of the game. The third was T.J. Edwards on fourth and five at the Chicago 46 late in the third, up 20 to seven. After halftime the Eagles' 14 pass plays gained 30 net yards and were worth −12.4.

The passing game opens on the success rate: 53 percent of Chicago's 34 pass plays gained what the situation asked for, eleventh of 32 this week. They were worth +7.3 expected points, eleventh per play, on 247 net yards, thirteenth. At the rate this passing game played over the first two weeks, 34 plays would have been worth about +5; at last season's rate, when it ranked ninth, about +2.8. The long ones: Burden for 25 and Rome Odunze for 22 on back-to-back snaps right after the Thieneman touchback, and, up 13 to seven with five 55 left in the third, first and 10 at the Philadelphia 41, Keenum short over the middle to Kalif Raymond, who ran it in from 41 yards — +3.4 expected points and eight points of win probability.

The run game opens on the count. 33 rush plays — only Atlanta and Baltimore ran it more this week — for a hundred 30 yards, worth −1 expected point, tied for fifteenth with Dallas per play. At the rate it ran over the first two weeks, those carries would have been worth about +4.6; at last season's rate, when it was the fourth-ranked run game in the league, about +2 and a half — below both. The first half was 13 runs for 27 yards, worth −6; the second was 20 for a hundred three, worth +5. Where it hurt was inside the 20: 19 red-zone snaps and two touchdowns, 20-third of the 31 teams that got there this week. After the fumble recovery, a Colston Loveland catch ruled a touchdown was reversed to the one on review and the trip ended on fourth and three from the three, eight points of win probability. On the next trip, three runs from inside the 20 lost two yards each, and a 29-yard field goal made it 10 to nothing. The last touchdown, Keenum up the middle from the one on third and one with seven 21 left, closed a 13-play drive of about eight minutes.

The run defense was the unit furthest below its baselines. 19 Eagles rush plays gained a hundred seven yards and were worth +5.8 expected points allowed — on defense a positive number is the bad direction — 30-first of 32 per play this week, ahead of only Green Bay. At the rate of the first two weeks those 19 would have been worth about −1; at last season's rate, when this run defense ranked nineteenth, about zero. 13 of the 19 came before halftime, for 75 yards, Saquon Barkley's 12, 17 14 among them; after the break Philadelphia ran six times for 32, 20 of them on one Hurts scramble.

Third down was five of 13, 38 percent, tied for nineteenth of 32 this week with Dallas and Tennessee. The defense held the Eagles to two of nine, a 78 percent stop rate, third this week. 248 net yards allowed was fifth-fewest this week, seven points allowed tied with the Giants for second-fewest behind Jacksonville, and the turnover margin of +3 was tied for third with Houston and Washington.

For anyone new to this show, here is where that sits. Last season the Bears went 11 six with a passing game that ranked ninth in the league by expected points per play, the fourth-ranked run game, a pass defense in the middle of the league and a run defense that ranked nineteenth. Week 1 was a 59 to 37 win at Carolina with the run game first of 32 and the pass defense 20-fifth; Week 2 was a nine to three loss to Minnesota at home with the passing game 20-third, two giveaways and no takeaways. Monday inverted that: the pass defense went from 20-fifth and fourteenth to first, the run defense to 30-first, and the passing game was eleventh with a backup quarterback. Three games do not settle much; the Bears are two and one, and none of the three looked like the others.

Chicago hosts the Jets next Sunday, October fourth.

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_Data via nflverse._