Bears 23, Jets 12 — Week 4: Seven Third Downs, Seven Stops

Fourth and one at the Jets one, 27 seconds left in the first quarter, no score. Chicago had already been here once. Its opening drive went 14 plays from its own six to the Jets one, and replay took two D'Andre Swift touchdowns away, the second on fourth and one, and the Jets took over at their own one. This time Kyle Monangai went three yards to the one on second down, was stopped for no gain on third, and on fourth and one went behind the right guard and in. By expected points added, what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth, that run was +2.2. By win probability, the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment, it was about seven points. The Bears led for the remaining 45 minutes and beat the Jets 23 to 12 at home. They had the ball for about 43 of the 60 minutes, and the Jets ran 32 pass and rush plays all day. Tyson Bagent, who threw nine passes in the first three weeks, threw every Bears pass.

The passing game opens on its success rate. 63 percent of 35 pass plays gained what the situation asked for, and they were worth +7.9 expected points on 268 yards: +0.23 a play, up from +0.17 over the first three weeks. Third down went seven of 14. Bagent faked a handoff on 17 of 36 dropbacks, 47 percent, the most of the 30 charted offenses this week, after 28 percent across Weeks 1 to 3. He went 12 of 17 for a hundred two yards off the fake, and 13 of 17 for a hundred 66 without it. Chicago also ran 12 run-pass options, after three in the first three weeks combined. The best throw: third and five at the Chicago 47, 27 seconds left in the half, up 10 to three, Bagent deep middle to Rome Odunze for 37 yards to the Jets 16. +2.4, and a field goal for 13 to three at the break. The cost was one throw. Up seven to nothing early in the second quarter, Bagent went deep middle for Colston Loveland, and Fitzpatrick intercepted and ran it back to the Chicago 34: −5.8, and almost 13 points of win probability, the biggest swing of the game. The Jets kicked a field goal. Three more Jets interceptions came back on Jets penalties.

The run game opens on its volume, because the expected points did not follow it. 51 rush plays, 235 yards, two touchdowns, and −2.9 expected points: −0.06 a play, against +0.09 over the first three weeks. Two snaps cost more than that whole total. The reversed fourth-and-one at the one was −3.6, and in the third quarter, up 13 to three at the Chicago 28, Swift was stripped and the Jets recovered, −5.2, which became their second field goal. Swift did not carry again. Monangai finished with 30 carries for a hundred 46 yards and both touchdowns. The Jets crowded the line: six or fewer in the box on 14 of 50 designed runs, 28 percent, 20-fifth of the 30 charted offenses this week, after 47 percent over Weeks 1 to 3. Designed runs gained 4.6 a carry, against five point oh across the first three weeks. 24 snaps inside the Jets 20 brought two touchdowns.

The pass defense smashed it. The Jets went zero for seven on third down. 18 Jets pass plays, three of them sacks, were worth −4.9 expected points, and on defense a negative number is the good direction: −0.27 a play, after −0.11 over the first three weeks. It did it with fewer extra rushers, not more. Chicago sent five or more on five of 18 dropbacks, 28 percent, sixteenth of 30 this week, down from 42 percent over the first three weeks. Geno Smith's throws were catchable on nine of 15, 60 percent, under the 62 this defense had allowed through three weeks. The sack that mattered most opened the second half. The Jets had driven from their own 35 to the Chicago 39 on their longest drive of the day, down 13 to three. A five-yard loss on first down made it second and 15, a completion made it third and four at the 33, and Bush brought Smith down for eight yards, back to the 41. −3.2 expected points, eight and a half points of win probability, and the Jets punted it down at the Chicago four. The one leak came late: down 23 to six, Smith deep middle to Isaiah Williams for a 58-yard touchdown, +5 point oh, but only about three points of win probability, and the extra point went wide right.

The run defense played to its average. 14 Jets rush plays, all of them Braelon Allen's, gained 59 yards and were worth +0.5 expected points: +0.03 a play, against +0.04 over the first three weeks. On defense positive is the bad direction; this was even. Chicago showed six or fewer in the box on only three of the 14, after 37 percent over the first three weeks. The best stop was Stevenson's, the five-yard loss that set up the Bush sack.

The turning point was the answer to the fumble. Swift's giveaway and a Jets field goal made it 13 to six with seven minutes left in the third. Chicago went 72 yards in nine plays: a 15-yard face mask added to a Cole Kmet catch, Loveland for 12 on third and one to the Jets eight, and Monangai from five yards, 20 to six. The Jets punted after three plays on the next drive. And after the Williams touchdown, the Bears took the ball at their own nine with nine 16 left and never gave it back: 18 plays, Monangai on eight of the carries, three Bagent kneels at the end.

Last week's notebook had three lines and a question. The catchable rate allowed held, 60 percent against 62. The extra rushers broke, 28 percent after three weeks at 42, and the sacks came anyway. The quarterback leaving the pocket stayed broken with the change: Bagent was out of it on three of 36 dropbacks, after 32 of a hundred 14 across the first three weeks. And the question was whether the motion and the play-action come back when the box empties. The box did not empty, and the play-action came anyway, to the top of the 30 charted offenses; motion held at 39 percent, its three-week rate. The line from the Eagles game, balls a defender should have caught, came in at one on 15 throws, the third-highest rate of the 30 charted defenses this week, and Chicago did not catch it. The one to watch next: whether half the dropbacks stay play-action with Bagent throwing, and whether 24 red-zone snaps keep producing two touchdowns.

The stat lines, scored half-PPR. Monangai, 27 and a half on 30 carries for a hundred 46 two touchdowns, plus a catch for four. Odunze, 12.4 on six catches for 94. Luther Burden, 9.4. Bagent, 8.8: 25 of 34 for 268 and the interception. Loveland, 8.7 on six catches for 57 on nine targets, the team high. Swift, 6.4: 15 carries for 58 two catches for 16.

That's your Bears — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Bears show wherever you're listening, so next week's episode lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._