Bears 7, Packers 31 — Week 5: Five Turnovers, One Touchdown

Chicago lost 31-7 at Green Bay on Sunday and turned the ball over five times, three interceptions and two lost fumbles, without forcing one. Tyson Bagent threw two of the interceptions, both to Xavier McKinney. Case Keenum played the fourth quarter and threw the third, on fourth and 9 at the Green Bay 9. The Bears' one touchdown was D'Andre Swift's fourth-and-1 run from the 1 with 1:56 left in the half, and Jordan Love completed 25 of 31 for 367 yards on the other side.

The passing game was Muffed, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, puts a number on it. Its 44 pass plays were worth -22.2 EPA, -0.51 a play, against +0.18 through Week 4, for 195 yards and no touchdown, and 38.6% were successful, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Bagent went 12 of 21 for 87 yards and two interceptions; Keenum 11 of 19 for 108 and one. The charting puts it on the ball, not the hands. Only 24 of 40 throws were catchable, 60%, against 72.5% through Week 4, and receivers dropped none. Three were interception-worthy, a ball a defender should have caught, after 3 in 131 through Week 4, and Green Bay caught all 3. Bagent was catchable on 57.1%, against 71.4% on his 42 throws through Week 4. This came against little extra rush: five or more on 7 of 47 dropbacks, 14.9%, after this offense saw 48% through Week 4.

The run game was quiet and slightly under its average. Its 24 rush plays had a 37.5% success rate and were worth -0.9 EPA, -0.04 a play against +0.04 through Week 4, for 81 yards. The 21 designed runs gained 67, with Green Bay showing six or fewer in the box on 10 of them, 47.6%, against 40.1% through Week 4. Swift ran 9 times for 43 yards. His touchdown ended the one drive that worked: Bagent ran 7 yards to the 1 on first and 8, Swift was stopped for no gain, a third-down throw for Rome Odunze fell incomplete, and Swift went in off left tackle, +2.5 EPA.

The pass defense was Muffed, and on defense a positive number is the bad direction. Green Bay's 33 pass plays were worth +15.8 EPA, +0.48 a play, against -0.13 allowed through Week 4, for 367 yards and two touchdowns. Play-action did the damage: 14 of 34 dropbacks, 41.2%, against the 23.3% opponents ran at Chicago through Week 4, and Love completed 12 of those 14 for 245 yards. 27 of his 31 throws were catchable, 87.1%, against 61.6% allowed through Week 4, and none was interception-worthy, after 6 in 99 by opponents. Chicago sent five or more on 11 of 34 dropbacks, 32.4%, against 39.7% through Week 4. Austin Booker sacked Love twice in the last 39 seconds of the half. The long throws kept landing: Christian Watson for a 42-yard touchdown, Tucker Kraft for 46 deep right, Matthew Golden for 50 deep middle.

The run defense held, and on defense a negative number is the good direction. Green Bay's 24 rush plays were worth -1.8 EPA, -0.08 a play, against +0.04 allowed through Week 4, and gained 72 yards at a 37.5% success rate. Chicago showed six or fewer in the box on 6 of 23 designed runs, 26.1%, against 34.2% through Week 4, and those runs gained 66 yards. The leaks were short: Pierre Strong converted fourth and 1 at the Chicago 24, and MarShawn Lloyd scored from the 7 and the 4.

The game turned on the first drive of the third quarter. Green Bay led 14-7, and an offensive pass interference flag had wiped out a touchdown and left third and 22 at the Green Bay 47. Love went deep middle to Watson for 53 yards and the score, 12.4 points of win probability, and 20-7. Chicago answered with a drive to third and 8 at the Green Bay 22, where Dani Dennis-Sutton dropped Kalif Raymond for a 3-yard loss and Cairo Santos's field goal try went wide left. Late in the third, after Bagent converted fourth and 4 with a 7-yard throw to Colston Loveland, McKinney intercepted the next pass, -4.8 EPA. Chicago went 4 of 14 on third down, and its 12 drives brought one touchdown, five turnovers and a turnover on downs. It stopped Green Bay on 8 of 12 third downs.

The scheme moved more and faked less. Motion came on 51 of 83 charted plays, 61.4%, against 38.5% through Week 4. Play-action fell to 11 of 47 dropbacks, 23.4%, from 32.7%. Run-pass options fell to 1, after 15 through Week 4, and screens to 3, 6.4% of dropbacks against 9.3%. Chicago's quarterbacks left the pocket 8 times on 47 dropbacks, after 35 on 150 through Week 4.

Last week's notebook asked whether half the dropbacks stay play-action with Bagent throwing, and whether 24 red-zone snaps keep producing two touchdowns. Neither held. Play-action was under a quarter of dropbacks, and Bagent completed 3 of his 8 play-action throws for 22 yards, after 14 of 19 for 124 through Week 4. Chicago ran 11 red-zone snaps and scored once; the last of them was Ty'Ron Hopper's interception in the end zone. The one to watch next: whether the catchable rate climbs back toward the 72.5% this offense threw through Week 4, and whether a run defense that held Green Bay to -0.08 a play gets help from a pass defense that allowed 87.1% catchable.

That's your Bears, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Bears on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._