Bears 30, Patriots 24 — Week 7: Burden's 130, Santos From 58

Chicago beat New England 30-24 at home on Thursday night to go 5-2, and needed a 58-yard field goal with 1:39 left to make it a two-score game. The Bears led 20-14 at halftime and 27-14 midway through the third quarter, then gave up a touchdown, went three-and-out and missed from 53 before the drive that closed it. Nine drives produced three touchdowns, three field goals, a missed field goal and two three-and-outs, with no turnovers.

The passing game Smashed, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, says by how much. Its 36 pass plays were worth +13.6 EPA, +0.38 a play against +0.06 through Week 6, and 47.2% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Caleb Williams completed 22 of 33 for 308 yards and two touchdowns without an interception, and was sacked three times. Luther Burden III caught all 4 of his targets for 130 yards and a score, 92 of them after the catch. Colston Loveland caught 7 of 12 for 69 and a touchdown and Rome Odunze 4 of 5 for 69. The throw that defined it came up 13-7 with 21 seconds left in the half, one snap after a 7-yard sack: third and 17 at the New England 24, Williams threw short right to Burden behind the line of scrimmage, and Burden ran it in for 20-7 after the extra point. That snap was worth +4.36 EPA and 6.5 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. Burden's 58-yard catch on second and 9 in the first quarter, 40 of it after the catch, set up the first touchdown at the 4.

The run game held its level without adding to it, and success rate is the fair read: 44.8% of 29 rush plays succeeded. Together they were worth -0.9 EPA, -0.03 a play against -0.01 through Week 6, for 117 yards and a touchdown. D'Andre Swift ran 22 times for 78 yards, scoring from the 4 in the first quarter and converting fourth and 1 at the New England 20 with a 5-yard run, +1.68 EPA. With the lead to protect, his last eight carries, all in the fourth quarter, gained 9 yards.

The pass defense was Muffed, and EPA per play allowed measures the fall: New England's 32 pass plays were worth +0.37 a play, against -0.06 allowed through Week 6. On defense a positive number is bad, and +11.9 in total is a lot of it, +9.4 of it on 16 pass plays after halftime. Drake Maye completed 24 of 31 for 321 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, and 56.3% of the pass plays succeeded. Hunter Henry caught all 7 of his targets for 71 yards. Rhamondre Stevenson caught 5 for 93, 48 of them on the last snap of the half: first and 10 at the Chicago 48 with 3 seconds left, a short pass to the right that he turned into a touchdown, +6.54 EPA and 20-14. Eli Raridon's 30-yard touchdown on first and 15 made it 27-21 late in the third. The stop that mattered came down 13-7 with 3:32 left in the half: first and 10 at the Chicago 15, Maye threw deep right for Raridon and D'Marco Jackson intercepted in the end zone, -5.27 EPA and 10.3 points of win probability for New England.

The run defense beat its own standard, and the yardage says how little New England found: 70 yards on 17 rush plays, 44 of them on 13 carries by its backs. Those 17 plays were worth -2.8 EPA, -0.17 a play against -0.02 allowed through Week 6; here a negative number is good, and only 29.4% succeeded. Stevenson ran 6 times for 22. On third and 6 at the Chicago 46 on the first drive, Jackson held him to 1 yard, and Kyler Gordon sacked Maye on fourth and 5 on the next snap. Maye's 7-yard scramble, ruled a touchdown on review, was the only score on the ground.

The game turned on the drive Chicago had to have. Up 27-21 with 6:22 left, starting at its own 9, the offense lost an 8-yard run on third and 1 to Zavion Thomas's holding penalty. On third and 9 at its own 10, Williams went deep right to Odunze for 21 yards, +2.34 EPA and 8.4 points of win probability, the biggest gain of any Chicago play from scrimmage by that measure. Two plays later Odunze caught another 21 to midfield. The drive reached the New England 30, Christian Barmore's 10-yard sack pushed it back, and Santos hit from 58 for 30-21 after the Patriots had spent all three timeouts. New England kicked a 47-yard field goal with 42 seconds left, and Odunze recovered the onside kick.

Last week's notebook asked whether a run game that scored three times at -0.25 a play would start gaining ground. Partly: -0.03 a play here, back near its -0.01 through Week 6, though Swift's 22 carries averaged 3.5 yards. The one to watch next: whether a pass defense that allowed +0.37 a play here, after -0.06 through Week 6, gets back to its standard.

That's your Bears, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Bears on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._