Bears 34, Seahawks 17 — Week 8: Swift Scores Three in Seattle

Chicago beat Seattle 34-17 in Seattle on Monday night, its third straight win, and went to 6-2. The Bears led 13-9 at halftime and 20-9 into the fourth quarter, then lost a fumble at their own 25 and watched the Seahawks cut it to 20-17. They answered with touchdowns on their next two possessions. 12 drives produced four touchdowns, two Cairo Santos field goals, a lost fumble and three three-and-outs.

The passing game did its work before halftime, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, shows the split: 25 pass plays worth +6.1 in the first half, 10 worth -0.7 after it. For the game: +5.4 on 35 pass plays, +0.15 a play against +0.11 through Week 7, and 54.3% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Caleb Williams completed 24 of 34 for 247 yards and a touchdown without an interception and was sacked once. Rome Odunze caught 4 of 6 targets for 87 yards, and Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland 7 each. The opening drive converted three third downs, two of them throws to Loveland, and ended on a 1-yard touchdown to Burden on second and 1. Up 13-9 early in the third, second and 11 at the Seattle 47, Williams hit Odunze over the middle for 22 yards to the 25, +2.3 EPA and 7.7 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win.

The run game took over after halftime, and EPA per play says it was the second-best day on the ground this season: 34 rush plays worth +6.7, +0.20 a play against -0.02 through Week 7, for 127 yards and three touchdowns. The 15 before the break were worth -0.8; the 19 after it, +7.5, and 12 fourth-quarter runs gained 69 yards. D'Andre Swift ran 27 times, his most this season, for 69 yards and all three scores, from the 1 in the third and twice from the 5 in the fourth. On the opening drive he converted fourth and 1 at his own 44 with a 5-yard run, +2.5 EPA.

The pass defense gave up one big throw and little else, and EPA allowed per play measures it: Seattle's 37 pass plays were worth -7.6, -0.20 a play against +0.01 allowed through Week 7. On defense a negative number is good. Sam Darnold completed 17 of 34 for 188 yards, two touchdowns and an interception and was sacked three times. The exception came with 37 seconds left in the half: third and 10 at the Chicago 43, Darnold went deep left to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for the touchdown, +5.4 EPA and 14.8 points of win probability. The extra point went wide left, leaving 13-9. After halftime Seattle's 21 pass plays came to -7.9. Up 27-17 with 6:01 left, on third and 7 at the Seattle 25, James Lynch intercepted Darnold's short throw for AJ Barner and returned it 16 yards to the 6, -5.4 EPA for Seattle, and Swift scored on the drive that followed. The defense stopped 10 of Seattle's 11 third downs.

The run defense allowed its lowest success rate of the season: 4 of Seattle's 19 rush plays, 21.1%, gained what the situation asked for. They came to 81 yards and -2.8 EPA, -0.15 a play against -0.04 allowed through Week 7; here a negative number is good too. Jadarian Price ran 10 times for 29 yards and Zach Charbonnet 6 for 23. The stand that set the tone opened the second quarter, first and 9 at the Chicago 9: Lynch stopped Charbonnet for no gain, Jeffery Simmons dropped him for a 6-yard loss on a short pass, and Seattle kicked a 27-yard field goal.

The game turned in the first seven minutes of the fourth quarter. Up 20-9, Austin Booker blocked a 33-yard field goal, -3.4 EPA for Seattle. Three snaps later, on third and 20 at the Chicago 13 after Mike Morris's 10-yard sack, Loveland caught a short pass for 8 and DeMarcus Lawrence forced the fumble and recovered it at the 25: -2.8 EPA and 10.3 points of win probability. Cooper Kupp's 7-yard touchdown and a two-point try made it 20-17. Chicago's answer started at its own 44 after a roughness penalty on the kickoff. Loveland's 12-yard catch on second and 11 was worth 10.2 points of win probability. After a delay of game, on third and 9 at the Seattle 44, receiver Kalif Raymond ran around right end for 39 yards to the 5, +4.0 EPA and 10.1 points, and Swift scored on the next snap for 27-17.

Last week's notebook asked whether a pass defense that allowed +0.37 a play to New England would get back to its standard. It went past it: -0.20 a play allowed here, against +0.01 through Week 7. The one to watch next: whether a run game at +0.20 a play, with +4.0 of its +6.7 EPA on Raymond's one carry, keeps adding value, after Swift averaged 2.6 yards a carry.

That's your Bears, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Bears on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._