Browns 23, Buccaneers 19 — Week 2: Four Third Downs on One Drive

Third and two at the Tampa Bay 17, three 57 left in the fourth quarter, Cleveland down 19 to 16. Deshaun Watson threw short left to Blake Whiteheart for 17 yards and the touchdown. 19 points of win probability, and the first moment all afternoon that the Browns were ahead. It was the fourth third down of that drive and the fourth conversion. Before that drive started, Cleveland had converted one of nine. The Browns beat the Buccaneers 23 to 19 in Tampa, led for less than four minutes, and with about nine minutes left in the third quarter, down 16 to six, had a 15 percent chance of winning by the win probability model.

Start with the passing game, because it is the part of this result that argues with everything that came before it. 32 pass plays, sacks included, were worth +10.4 expected points added — expected points added is what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, so that is value the passing game created above what those situations were already worth. Per play, that was sixth of the 28 teams that have played this week. 56 percent of those pass plays kept the offense on schedule, and so far this week only San Francisco, Dallas and Detroit have a higher success rate. Now the baseline. Last season this passing offense was 30-second of 32. At the rate it passed last season, those same 32 plays would have been worth about −9. Last week in Jacksonville, 27 pass plays were worth −9.8. It was a second-half number. Before halftime, 11 pass plays netted 40 yards with two sacks in them and were worth −1.1. After halftime, 21 pass plays gained a hundred 83 yards, were worth +11 and a half, and took no sacks. And no giveaways of any kind, a week after two.

The play that made it a game came with a minute 33 left in the third quarter, down 16 to nine. The drive had started at the Cleveland 17. Watson hit Harold Fannin for 13, threw incomplete, then threw incomplete again, but a face mask penalty on Yaya Diaby erased that snap and moved the ball 15 yards to the Cleveland 45. On the next play, first and 10, Watson threw short over the middle to Denzel Boston, and the play went 55 yards for the touchdown. 19 points of win probability, and after the extra point a game Cleveland had trailed 16 to six earlier in the quarter was tied at 16.

Then the drive. Tampa Bay had gone back in front 19 to 16, and Cleveland took over at its own 32 with nine 52 left. Third and four at the Cleveland 38: Watson scrambled up the middle for six. Third and three at the Tampa Bay 49: Watson to Boston on the right side for nine. Third and one at the 31: Watson to Fannin over the middle for six. Third and two at the 17: Whiteheart, touchdown. 12 plays, 68 yards, about six minutes. For the afternoon Cleveland was five of 13 on third down, and the split is the story: zero for six before halftime, five of seven after it. The seven third downs that needed seven yards or more all failed, and flags built some of those distances: all six of Cleveland's accepted penalties, 50 yards' worth, came in the first 21 minutes of the game.

The run game gave the offense almost nothing. 46 rushing yards, the fewest of the 28 teams that have played this week. 21 rush plays were worth −9.9 expected points; per play, so far this week, only the Chargers and the Texans were worse. 24 percent of them were successful. 15 of the 21 gained three yards or fewer, and the longest Cleveland run was nine yards. The first half was the worst of it: 13 rush plays, 20 yards, −10 expected points. That half included Cleveland's one fourth-down try. Fourth and one at the Cleveland 34, two 50 left in the second quarter, tied at six: Quinshon Judkins ran behind right guard and Elijah Roberts stopped him for no gain. −10 points of win probability, and Tampa Bay turned the short field into a field goal. For context, at the rate the Buccaneers' run defense allowed last season, when it ranked third in the league, 21 rush plays would have been worth about −1 and a half.

The pass defense is the other half of the turnaround. Last week Jacksonville's 24 pass plays were worth +19 expected points against this defense, with four touchdowns, and Cleveland ranked 30-second of 32. On Sunday, Tampa Bay's 37 pass plays were worth −13.6 — on defense a negative number is the good direction. Of the 28 teams that have played this week, only Carolina and New England have been better against the pass. A hundred 82 passing yards allowed before sack yardage, fifth-fewest so far this week, and three sacks. Before halftime, Tampa Bay's 18 pass plays netted 39 yards and were worth −13.8. The takeaway came in that stretch: first and 10 at the Tampa Bay 36, a minute 19 left in the first quarter, Browns down six to three. Baker Mayfield threw deep left for Ted Hurst, and Myles Harden intercepted it at the Cleveland 47 and returned it 25 yards to the Tampa Bay 28. 20 points of win probability, a bigger swing than either Cleveland touchdown. The offense got a field goal out of it.

What kept the score within reach was the defense near its own goal line. Tampa Bay ran 13 snaps inside the Cleveland 20 and scored one touchdown. Four Buccaneers drives ended in field goals. And the last stand: with 45 seconds left Tampa Bay had second and four at the Cleveland 13, and a holding penalty pushed it back to the 23. Two plays later, on fourth and 11 from the 20 with 22 seconds left, Mayfield threw deep middle for Emeka Egbuka, incomplete. 26 points of win probability, the biggest swing of the game for either side.

The run defense is the blemish. 25 Tampa Bay rush plays gained a hundred 37 yards and were worth +4.5 expected points, and on defense a positive number is the bad direction. 20-seventh of the 28 teams that have played this week per play; only Detroit was worse. Four runs of 10 yards or more gained 78 of those yards, the longest a 38-yarder by Bucky Irving around left end in the first quarter that set up a field goal.

Now the longer view, for anyone meeting this team for the first time. Last season Cleveland went five and 12. The defense carried it, fourth in the league against the pass and fifth against the run by expected points per play, and the offense sank it, 30-second passing, 20-fifth rushing, bottom five on third down. Week 1 looked worse on both sides: a 34 to 10 loss in Jacksonville, one of eight on third down, last in the league in pass defense for the week, two giveaways and no takeaways. This week the pass defense looked like last season's again, the passing offense looked like nothing from last season, and the run defense, fifth a year ago, was 20-seventh of 28. Two games do not settle any of that. What can be said is that the passing game's good stretch was one half, against a defense that ranked twentieth against the pass last season.

Cleveland is at home against Carolina next Sunday afternoon. The Panthers' defense forced five turnovers this week, the most of the 28 teams that have played. Watch whether the second-half passing game shows up in a first half, and whether the run game can gain anything at all.

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_Data via nflverse._