Browns, Week 2 — What Repeats: 28 of 30 Throws Were Catchable

Deshaun Watson threw 30 passes in Tampa, and the charters marked 28 of them catchable — thrown where a receiver could reasonably make the catch. That is 93 percent, and of the 32 teams this week only the 49ers put a higher share of their throws in catchable spots. None of the 30 was charted as interception-worthy. One week earlier, in Jacksonville, the same quarterback was catchable on 73 percent and threw two interception-worthy balls in 22, tied for the second-highest rate in the league. Across all of last season this offense, with other quarterbacks, was catchable on 64 and a half percent of its throws. The Recap had the comeback; this is what the throws in it looked like.

There is an obvious discount, and it does not hold up. Cleveland threw six screens — six of 35 dropbacks, 17 percent, the third-highest screen rate of the 32 teams this week, behind only the Dolphins and the Chiefs, and about double the nine percent this offense screened across last season. Last week it was seven percent. All six were caught, for 23 yards between them, and three went to KC Concepcion. A screen is about the easiest ball in football to put on a receiver, so take them out: Watson's other 24 throws were catchable 22 times. The accuracy was not built on the screens.

Now what the Buccaneers were doing while he did it. Tampa Bay sent five or more pass rushers on 18 of Cleveland's 35 dropbacks — 51 percent. Of the 32 teams this week, only the Bears, the Bills and the 49ers faced five or more at a higher rate. Across all of last season this offense faced five or more on 25 percent of its dropbacks, and last week Jacksonville sent it on 37 percent. His catchable rate did not change with the count. Against five or more he threw 16 times: 15 catchable, 13 completions, a hundred 17 yards, one touchdown. Against four or fewer, 14 throws: 13 catchable, 11 completions, a hundred 21 yards, one touchdown. The go-ahead throw to Blake Whiteheart came off a play-action fake with six rushers coming. Neither of the two sacks was charted as his fault, a week after three of five were.

The scheme number that has now held for two games is motion. Cleveland moved someone before the snap on 24 of 75 charted plays, 32 percent — 20-eighth of the 32 teams this week, against a league median of about 50. Last week it was 24 percent, the lowest in the league. Last season this offense motioned on 39 percent of its charted plays. Play-action barely moved: eight of 35 dropbacks, 23 percent, eighteenth this week, against 22 percent last season and 27 last week. Watson's seven play-action throws went six for 71 yards; his other 23 went 18 for a hundred 67.

The run game is the other side of the ledger, and the charting makes it look worse than the Recap did. Cleveland ran 18 designed runs with a box charted and gained 32 yards — 1.8 a run, the lowest of the 32 teams this week. Tampa Bay put six or fewer in the box on three of the 18, 17 percent, the third-lowest light-box rate any offense saw this week. Last season this offense saw one on about half its designed runs. The average box on Sunday was 7.3 defenders. But the box is not the whole answer. Six runs into eight or more gained 14 yards, nine runs into seven gained 13, and the three runs against a light box gained five. Last season this offense averaged 3.6 a designed run; last week, 3.5.

On defense the lead figure is where Baker Mayfield's throws went. 23 of 34 were catchable, 68 percent — 20-first of the 32 passing games this week. Last week Trevor Lawrence was catchable on 87 percent against this defense, second-highest in the league, and across last season opponents managed 71 percent. It was not a heavier rush. It rushed five or more on nine of Tampa Bay's 40 dropbacks, 22 and a half percent, 20-sixth of 32; last week 12 and a half percent, and across last season 28. When the Browns rushed four or fewer — 30 of the 40 dropbacks — Mayfield threw 27 times, 16 catchable, 14 completions for a hundred 19 yards, and all three sacks and his one interception-worthy ball came on those snaps. When Cleveland sent five or more, he went six for six for 58 and scrambled three times. One charting note on the takeaway the Recap told: Myles Harden's interception was the one throw the charters marked interception-worthy, and they did not mark it catchable.

The run defense adds one thing to the Recap's blemish: the box was not light. Tampa Bay ran 22 designed runs for a hundred 11 yards, about five a run — the third-most any defense allowed of the 32 this week. Cleveland showed six or fewer in the box on nine of the 22, 41 percent, eighteenth this week and close to the 42 percent it showed last season, with an average of 6.6 defenders. Last season this defense allowed 4.2 a designed run; last week, 4.4. The yards came through the seven-man fronts, 13 runs for 94; the nine runs against a light box gained 17.

The stat lines have settled, so here they are, scored half-PPR. Watson, 19.7: 24 of 30 for 238 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions, and seven carries for 22. Denzel Boston, 18: five catches on seven targets for 95 yards and the 55-yard touchdown. Whiteheart, 8.2 on his one catch, the 17-yard score. Harold Fannin, 7.9 on five of six for 54. Quinshon Judkins, 7.3: 12 carries for 21 yards and five catches for 27. Concepcion caught all six of his targets for 28, and Jerry Jeudy was targeted once without a catch. For Tampa Bay, Mayfield scored 12.2, and Bucky Irving 11 on 17 carries for 89 yards.

A word on what these comparisons are, because the show's name asks a question two games cannot answer. Until about Week 4, every "last season" here means all of 2025 — a Cleveland roster that has turned over since, a different quarterback throwing, everyone a year older. Set against that, a figure can tell you it is unusual. It cannot yet tell you it is true. And Week 1 is one game: we call it last week, never this season's rate.

So, what repeated. Two games settle nothing, but they sort the charting into two piles. Moving the same way both weeks, away from last season: the defense sending five or more less often, 12 and a half percent and then 22 and a half, against 28 a year ago; motion down, 24 and then 32, against 39; the offense facing five or more more often, 37 and then 51, against 25; the offense leaving the pocket more, 30 and then 26 percent of dropbacks, against 21; the catchable rate above last season's 64 and a half both times; and the run defense allowing more per designed run than last season both times. Reversed: the interception-worthy throws, two and then none; the quarterback-fault sacks, three and then none; and the boxes the run game saw, tied for the seventh-highest light-box rate in Week 1 and the third-lowest in Week 2.

For anyone new: last season, per the Recap, Cleveland went five and 12 with the fourth-best pass defense in the league and the 30-second passing offense. This season opened with a 34 to 10 loss in Jacksonville and then a 23 to 19 win in Tampa. Last week's notebook held two lines. The pass-rush count stayed low for a second week. Watson's interception-worthy throws went from two to none, so he now has two in 52 throws across two games — the start of a baseline of his own. The motion number went in with a question mark, and the mark is smaller now. One new line: the run game, 1.8 a designed run into boxes this heavy.

That's your Browns — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Browns show wherever you're listening, so next week's recap lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

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_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._