Browns, Week 3 — What Repeats: Six or Fewer in the Box, Every Run

Cleveland played the run with six or fewer in the box, and it never changed. On all 23 of Carolina's designed runs the Browns showed six or fewer defenders in the box, 22 of them exactly six and one of them five. No other defense in the league showed a light box on every run this week; the median was 41 percent. Across last season this defense showed six or fewer on 42 percent of the designed runs it faced, and in the first two weeks it was 55 and then 41. It gave up a middling day. Carolina gained 98 yards on the 23, about 4.3 a run, fourteenth of the 32 offenses this week, and the Recap had the success rate at 30 percent. Chuba Hubbard carried 19 times for 82. A defense that keeps six in the box is choosing to keep bodies back against the pass. On Sunday the run game did not make it pay much for the choice.

Behind those light fronts, Bryce Young's throws were charted catchable on 28 of 47, not counting a spike, 60 percent. That is one of the four lowest shares any defense allowed this week, and across last season opponents were catchable on 72 percent against Cleveland. Eight of the 47 were throwaways, one throw in six. Five were contested balls, a receiver and a defender arriving together. And none was interception-worthy; the Hickman interception that ended the game was charted neither interception-worthy nor catchable. Cleveland got there mostly without sending extra people. It rushed five or more on 11 of 50 dropbacks, 22 percent, 20-fifth in the league, after one in eight in Week 1 and about 22 percent in Week 2, against 28 across last season. Three weeks low, and all three sacks came with four or fewer rushing. On the 11 dropbacks with five coming, Young completed six of 11 for 45 yards and was not sacked.

On offense, the number that turned around is motion. Cleveland moved someone before the snap on 46 of 88 charted plays, 52 percent, tenth of the 32 teams this week. In Week 1 it was 24 percent, the lowest in the league, and last week 32, 20-eighth. Last season this offense motioned on 39 percent of its plays. Two weeks below last year and then one well above it, and that was last week's notebook line with the question mark on it. The mark is back.

Deshaun Watson's throws came back to earth. Charters marked 18 of his 30 throws catchable, 60 percent; Cleveland's team rate ranked 20-eighth of the 32 passing games this week. Last week in Tampa it was 93 percent, second in the league; in Week 1 it was 73. Across last season this offense, with other quarterbacks, was catchable on about 65. Three of the 30 were throwaways. One was charted interception-worthy, a first-quarter incompletion toward Concepcion. And only one of Cleveland's 31 throws was contested, three percent, the third-lowest contested rate in the league this week, against about 14 percent for this offense last season. The throw Carolina intercepted and lost to a penalty is in none of these counts, because the penalty erased the play; the charters marked it contested, and neither catchable nor interception-worthy. Screens stayed in the plan, four of 38 dropbacks, seventh in the league, but only one of the four was completed for a gain. Carolina sent five or more on nine of 38 dropbacks, 24 percent, after Tampa Bay sent it on 51.

What has now held for three weeks is that Watson leaves the pocket. He was out of it on 11 of his 37 dropbacks, 30 percent, and as a team rate that was third of the 32 offenses this week. That was 30 percent in Week 1 and 26 in Week 2, against 21 percent for this offense across last season. Five of the 11 were scrambles, and they are his whole rushing line: 45 yards on the five, and nothing on his other six carries, two of which were kneel-downs. Two of the five converted third downs, 12 yards on third and six in the first quarter and 21 on third and three with two 55 left, the run that put the winning drive at the Carolina 24.

The run game got lighter boxes than last week and did more with them. Carolina showed six or fewer in the box on 11 of Cleveland's 23 designed runs, 48 percent, thirteenth in the league, after 17 percent in Tampa, the third-lowest rate any offense saw that week. The 23 runs gained 89 yards, 3.9 a run, seventeenth of 32, after 1.8 last week, the lowest in the league. The yards followed the box. The 11 runs against a light front gained 56; the 12 into seven-man boxes gained 33. Quinshon Judkins carried 18 times for 70, and 11 of his carries went into seven for 33 yards. Last season this offense averaged 3.6 a designed run, so Sunday was a normal day by that measure.

The stat lines have settled, so here they are, scored half-PPR. Harold Fannin, 20.6: seven catches on nine targets for 51 yards and both touchdowns. Watson, 20.3: 16 of 30 for a hundred 44 yards and two touchdowns, no interceptions, and 11 carries for 45. Quinshon Judkins, 8.9, 18 carries for 72 catches for nine. Raheim Sanders, 7.1, on one carry for 17 four catches for 34. KC Concepcion caught two of nine targets for nine yards. For Carolina, Young scored 13.6 on 26 of 48 for 291, and Hubbard 13.

A last word on the yardstick. Through this week, every last-season figure here is all of last year, a different roster and a different quarterback. From next week the comparison becomes this team's own games.

The thread, from the top for anyone new. Cleveland went five and 12 last season with a top-five pass defense and the league's last-ranked passing game. This season it lost 34 to 10 in Jacksonville, won 23 to 19 in Tampa, and beat Carolina 21 to 18 at home, so it is two and one. Last week's notebook held three lines. The low pass-rush count held, about 22 percent for a second week. Watson's interception-worthy count went two, none, and now one, three in 82 throws across the three games. The motion line broke, up to tenth in the league after two weeks near the bottom. The new line from last week, the run game against heavy boxes, got its answer: lighter boxes and 3.9 a run. And one line goes in fresh: a defense that showed six or fewer in the box on every run and gave up 4.3. The Steelers come to Cleveland on Thursday.

That's your Browns — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Browns show wherever you're listening, so next week's recap lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

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_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._