Browns 27, Steelers 24 — Week 4: Fifty-Six Yards With Fifteen Left

24 all, 15 seconds left, fourth and eight at the Pittsburgh 38. Szmyt lined up from 56 yards and made it. By win probability, the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment, that kick was worth 21.8 points, the biggest swing of the night. On the next snap, with 10 seconds left, Aaron Rodgers threw deep right for Roman Wilson, and Delpit intercepted at the Cleveland 18. The Browns beat the Steelers 27 to 24 on Thursday night in Cleveland, and they are three and one. They led 21 to 10 after three quarters. Pittsburgh scored 14 in the fourth, the last eight inside the final two minutes, and the Browns had a minute 36 to answer.

The passing game is why there was a lead to lose. 57 percent of Cleveland's 35 pass plays were successful plays, meaning they gained what the down and distance asked for. Those 35, two sacks included, were worth +9.2 expected points. Expected points added is what a snap was worth given the down, distance and field position. At this passing game's rate over the first three weeks, the same 35 would have been worth about plus point six. Watson completed 24 of 33 for 268 yards, one touchdown and one interception. The throw that broke it open: seven all, 10 38 left in the second quarter, first and 10 at the Cleveland 26 after a Pittsburgh punt. Watson went deep left for Denzel Boston, and Boston carried it 60 yards to the Pittsburgh 14. +3.6 expected points and 11.6 points of win probability. Three snaps later Judkins ran it in from the two. The next touchdown came on third and goal from the two with a minute 25 left in the half, Watson short right to Harold Fannin, 21 to seven.

The charting says how. Watson's throws were catchable on 26 of 33, 79 percent, fourth of the 30 charted passing games this week, against 76 percent over the first three weeks. 10 of the 33 were contested, a receiver and a defender arriving together. That is 30 percent, after six contested throws in 83 across the first three weeks. Play-action nearly disappeared: five fakes on 37 dropbacks, 14 percent, 20-eighth of 30, after 23 percent through Week 3. The one mistake came on the second snap of the fourth quarter, up 11: deep middle for Boston, intercepted at the Pittsburgh 23. A pass-interference flag came off on replay review, the interception stood, and Pittsburgh drove 77 yards to score.

The run game finished below average and still ahead of its own pace. 25 rush plays, scrambles included, were worth −3.2 expected points. At the rate of the first three weeks, about −4 and a half. A hundred 14 yards and two touchdowns. Pittsburgh showed six or fewer defenders in the box on 14 of Cleveland's 23 designed runs, 61 percent, the eighth-highest rate any of the 30 charted offenses saw this week, after 43 percent for the first three weeks. Those 23 gained 86 yards, 3.7 a run, after 3.1. Jaleel McLaughlin carried once and scored: first and 10 at the Pittsburgh 28, down seven, right end for the tying touchdown, 11 points of win probability. The costliest snap was a run too. Up 21 to 10 with four 19 left in the third, second and seven at the Pittsburgh 38, Watson went up the middle, lost five, and Watt forced the fumble and recovered it at midfield. −5.7 expected points.

On defense, the pass rush changed. Cleveland sent five or more rushers on 16 of Rodgers's 45 dropbacks, 36 percent, eleventh of the 30 charted defenses, after 20 percent across the first three weeks. It sacked him five times, from five different players, and charters put all five sacks on Rodgers himself. His throws were catchable on 25 of 40, 63 percent, against 68 percent allowed through Week 3, and two were charted interception-worthy. The first interception came with Pittsburgh up seven to nothing, second snap of the second quarter, deep right for Michael Pittman: Ward picked it off at the Cleveland 44, and four snaps later McLaughlin tied the game. But the 45 pass plays still came to +3.4 expected points for Pittsburgh, and on defense a positive number is the bad direction. At this unit's rate through three weeks, those plays would have been worth about minus point one. 299 passing yards and three touchdowns, 14 of the 24 points in the fourth quarter. The third-down stops held up: nine of 13.

The run defense played the same light front it showed last week, and it cost a little more. Cleveland had six or fewer in the box on 18 of Pittsburgh's 19 designed runs, 95 percent, the highest rate any of the 30 charted offenses saw this week, after 65 percent across the first three weeks. Jaylen Warren carried 17 times for 93 yards. 19 rush plays were worth +1.2 expected points to Pittsburgh. At the rate of the first three weeks, about plus point two. 53 percent of them were successful. Warren's longest, 24 yards in the second quarter, led to nothing: McGuire sacked Rodgers on third and four and the 48-yard field goal missed.

The turning point came twice. Down 24 to 16 with a minute 51 left, Pittsburgh faced fourth and 10 at the Cleveland 11. Rodgers's throw for Darnell Washington fell incomplete, and McNeil-Warren was flagged for pass interference, 10.7 points of win probability and first and goal at the three. Pat Freiermuth caught the touchdown on the next snap, and Rodgers ran the two-point try in himself, 24 all. Then the answer. From the Cleveland 26, Watson hit Jerry Jeudy deep middle for 17, and a false start cost five yards and 10 seconds. On first and 15 he found Fannin for 12. On second and three Jeudy caught 10 to the Pittsburgh 40 and got out of bounds, 6.6 points of win probability, and KC Concepcion added six. A sack lost four, third and eight fell incomplete, and Szmyt kicked from 56.

The drive chart: 11 drives, three touchdowns, two field goals, two turnovers and one three-and-out. Third down was four of 10, one of them Watson's 21-yard scramble on third and four, up five, on the drive to Szmyt's 44-yarder for a 24 to 16 lead.

Now what repeats. Last week's notebook carried several lines. The newest, a defense that played six or fewer in the box on every run, held: 18 of 19 this week, and it gave up 4.8 a designed run, after 4.6 through Week 3. The low pass-rush count broke, from 20 percent to 36. Motion went back down, 34 of 81 charted plays, 42 percent, 20-second of 30, after last week's jump, close to its three-week rate of 37. Watson's interception-worthy count was one again, four in a hundred 15 throws across four games. He left the pocket on nine of 37 dropbacks, 24 percent, under the 28 percent of the first three weeks. And the run game got the lighter boxes again and more from them. What goes in the notebook now: a contested-throw rate that went from seven percent to 30, and a play-action rate cut by nearly half.

The stat lines, scored half-PPR. Quinshon Judkins, 18.6: 17 carries for 53 and a touchdown, six catches on seven targets for 43. Watson, 12.9. Boston, 10.9 on four catches for 89. Fannin, 10.2, with the touchdown. Concepcion, 8.9 on five catches for 64. McLaughlin, 8.8 on one carry. Jeudy caught all three of his targets for 36, 27 of them on the last drive.

That's your Browns — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Browns show wherever you're listening, so next week's episode lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._