Browns 12, Jets 17 — Week 5: A Punt That Never Got Away

Cleveland lost 17-12 to the Jets on the road on Sunday, and it held the game twice in the last seven minutes and let go both times. Deshaun Watson's 29-yard touchdown to Denzel Boston put the Browns up 12-10 with 6:21 left, and the extra point hit the right upright. With 4:20 left the defense stripped Geno Smith and took the ball at the Jets 43. Three snaps later the punt never got away, the Jets recovered at the Cleveland 23, and Braelon Allen scored.

The passing game was Muffed, and its success rate says so first: 22% of its 41 pass plays were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. By expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, they came to -12.5, -0.30 a play against +0.09 through Week 4. Watson went 15 of 33 for 155 yards and was sacked eight times, three by David Bailey; the charters put none of the eight on him. The Jets sent five or more rushers on 19 of 44 dropbacks, 43.2%, against the 35.7% this offense saw through Week 4, and Watson left the pocket 13 times. The touchdown came down 10-6, third and 10 at the Jets 29, deep left to Boston, +4.3 EPA and 21.6 points of win probability. Isaiah Bond caught 3 of 7 targets for 74 yards.

The charting says the ball and the hands both failed. Only 19 of Watson's 33 throws were catchable, 57.6%, against 76.5% through Week 4, and receivers dropped 5 of those 19, after 3 drops on 89 catchable balls through Week 4. Six were contested, a receiver and a defender arriving together, 18.2%. One was interception-worthy, a ball a defender should have caught, and the Jets did not catch it.

The run game was stuffed, and EPA per play shows it: -0.28 on 24 rush plays, against -0.17 through Week 4, for -6.8 EPA and 96 yards. Only 29.2% succeeded. Quinshon Judkins ran 14 times for 44 yards, and Watson added 40 on 6 runs. The 21 designed runs gained 60 yards, after 274 on 83 through Week 4, even though the Jets showed six or fewer in the box on 13 of 20, 65%, against 48.2% this offense saw through Week 4. T'Vondre Sweat dropped Judkins for a loss at the Cleveland 8 in the third, and Bailey and Dane Belton stopped him for no gain on second and 3 in the fourth.

The pass defense was Smashed, by EPA: the Jets' 34 pass plays were worth -13.9, -0.41 a play, against +0.02 allowed through Week 4; on defense, a big negative is good. Smith went 17 of 30 for 182 yards and was sacked four times, Maliek Collins in on two. Cleveland sent five or more on 10 of 35 dropbacks, 28.6%, up from 24.5% through Week 4. Smith's throws were catchable on 76.7%, against 66.7% allowed through Week 4, but the Jets dropped 5. The best snap came up 7-6 in the third, with the Jets at the Cleveland 11 on third and 10. Smith threw short right to Kenyon Sadiq, who got to the 5 before Quincy Williams punched the ball out and Ronnie Hickman Jr. recovered at the 7, a snap worth -3.7 EPA to the Jets and 11.5 points of win probability. Garrett Wilson still caught 7 for 104 and the opening touchdown, 32 yards on second and 10. A Collins offside wiped out Emmanuel McNeil-Warren's interception at the 4 on third and 12 to open the fourth, and Jason Sanders kicked a 54-yard field goal for a 10-6 lead.

The run defense gave ground, and the success rate allowed tells it: 40% of the Jets' 30 rush plays succeeded, worth +2.7 EPA, +0.09 a play against +0.02 allowed through Week 4, for 136 yards and a touchdown. Allen carried 24 times for 116. Cleveland gave up the light fronts it had lived in, six or fewer in the box on 11 of 29 designed runs, 37.9%, against 71% through Week 4, and those 29 runs gained 131 yards. Allen's 18 yards on third and 3 at the Cleveland 29 set up the snap Williams won.

The game turned between 4:20 and 3:07 of the fourth. Up 12-10, Carson Schwesinger sacked Smith at the Cleveland 48 and stripped him, and Adin Huntington returned the recovery to the Jets 43, a snap worth -5.8 EPA to the Jets and 36.6 points of win probability. The offense gave back nothing and gained nothing, a Judkins run for no gain and two incompletions. On fourth and 10, Corey Bojorquez could not get the punt off, and Trevin Wallace recovered at the Cleveland 23, a snap that cost 34.3 points of win probability. Two plays later Allen ran 22 yards for the touchdown on third and 9. The last drive ended on fourth and 11 at the Cleveland 19 with 57 seconds left, when Will McDonald IV sacked Watson and took the ball. The offense went 4 of 16 on third down and had five three-and-outs on 13 drives.

The scheme kept the fake on the shelf. Play-action came on 5 of 44 dropbacks, 11.4%, against 20.7% through Week 4, and those throws gained 3 yards on 3 completions. Run-pass options rose to 6, 9.2% of snaps, from 7.6%. Motion stayed near its rate, 37.2% against 38.6%, and no-huddle rose to 7.7% from 1.8%.

Last week's notebook carried two lines: a contested rate that had jumped against Pittsburgh, and play-action cut nearly in half. The contested rate came down to 18.2%, still above the 13.8% through Week 4. Play-action stayed down, at 11.4%. The new line is the catchable rate, 57.6% after 76.7% through Week 4, with five drops on top. The one to watch next: whether Watson's throws get back to catchable, and whether the defense returns to light boxes after giving up 131 yards on designed runs without them.

That's your Browns, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Browns on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._