Browns 27, Titans 24 — Week 7: Fannin's 36, Then Szmyt From 32

Cleveland won 27-24 at Tennessee on Sunday on Andre Szmyt's 32-yard field goal with 3 seconds left. The Browns trailed 14-0 less than seven minutes in, led 17-14 at halftime and 24-17 with 4:34 left, and watched Tony Pollard tie it with 58 seconds to go. 11 drives produced three touchdowns, two field goals, two turnovers and two three-and-outs, and Szmyt's 43-yarder early in the fourth quarter hit the right upright.

The passing game beat its standard, and success rate leads the case: 56.8% of its 37 pass plays were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, had them at +2.3, +0.06 a play against -0.043 through Week 6. Deshaun Watson completed 25 of 36 for 308 yards, no touchdowns and an interception, and was sacked once. KC Concepcion caught 8 of 10 for 129 yards and Harold Fannin Jr. 6 of 9 for 91. Two snaps cost -8.8 EPA between them: Cordale Flott's interception of a short throw for Denzel Boston on the second drive, -5.3 EPA, and Fannin's fumble after a 2-yard catch on third and 8, -3.4.

The run game Smashed, and EPA per play measures how far: 29 rush plays worth +7.4, +0.256 a play against -0.153 through Week 6. They gained 183 yards and three touchdowns, and 55.2% succeeded. Quinshon Judkins ran 17 times for 96 yards and two scores. The run that started the comeback came down 14-0 with 6:16 left in the first quarter: first and 10 at the Tennessee 35, Judkins went off left tackle and was pushed out at the 5, 30 yards and +2.1 EPA. After a timeout he scored from there. The ground game got stronger as it went, +6.0 EPA on 14 rush plays after halftime. Dylan Sampson ran 6 times for 45, and Watson's 9-yard run around left end put Cleveland up 24-17.

The pass defense allowed 181 yards and no touchdowns, and still sat a little behind its standard on EPA per play allowed: Tennessee's 32 pass plays were worth +0.01 each, against -0.028 allowed through Week 6. On defense a negative number is good. Only 37.5% succeeded. Denzel Ward intercepted Cam Ward's deep throw for Elic Ayomanor at the Cleveland 22 in the second quarter, and Tyson Campbell forced Carnell Tate's fumble after a 13-yard catch in the third, Ronnie Hickman Jr. recovering at the Tennessee 41. The last drive gave two back: Ayomanor for 26 on fourth and 8, Tate for 18 on third and 12.

The run defense beat its own standard after a bad start, and total EPA allowed shows it: Tennessee's 30 rush plays were worth -4.1, -0.137 a play against -0.036 allowed through Week 6. Here negative is good. Pollard ran for 87 yards and two touchdowns on 12 first-quarter carries, then 42 yards and one more touchdown on his last 13. Isaiah McGuire and Quincy Williams stopped him for no gain on third and 1 at the Tennessee 20 in the third, though a too-many-men penalty on the punt gave the Titans a first down.

The game turned at the goal line and again in the last minute. Down 14-7 in the second quarter, the defense faced first and goal at the 4. Pollard's touchdown was reversed to the 1, Cam Ward's sneak gained nothing, Adin Huntington sacked him for no gain on third down, and on fourth and 1 Winston Reid stopped Pollard: -3.4 EPA and 8.3 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win, for Tennessee. Cleveland then lost a fumble, got the ball straight back on Denzel Ward's interception, and drove 78 yards to tie it; Jeffery Simmons's offside on fourth and 1 at the 11 kept the drive alive. Tied 24-24 with 53 seconds left, starting at its own 31, Watson hit Boston for 6 and Sampson for 8, and after a timeout, first and 10 at the Cleveland 45 with 28 seconds left, threw short left to Fannin, who carried it 36 yards to the Tennessee 19: +1.2 EPA and 23.2 points of win probability, the largest swing of any play from scrimmage in the game. Joshua Williams's offside on the field-goal snap moved Szmyt to the 14, and he made it. The offense converted 5 of 11 third downs; the defense stopped 7 of 13.

Last week's notebook asked whether Watson's throws would get back to catchable, and whether a passing game at -0.22 a play could climb above its baseline. The catchable rate waits for the charting. The rate did climb: +0.06 a play against -0.043 through Week 6. The one to watch next: whether a run game at +0.256 a play here, after -0.153 through Week 6, keeps any of it, and whether an offense that gave the ball away twice can win a week without a late field goal.

That's your Browns, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Browns on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._