Broncos 10, Chiefs 31 — Week 1: Three Points From the Five

Brandon Jones intercepted Patrick Mahomes at the Kansas City 29 and ran it back to the five. Nine 47 left in the third quarter, Denver down 21 to seven, first and goal from the five, and the biggest swing of the night in the Broncos' favor. What followed: RJ Harvey ran to the three and a holding penalty on Pat Bryant wiped it out. First and 15 from the 15, Bo Nix to Courtland Sutton for six. Second and nine, Nix sacked at the 15, fumbled, ball out of bounds. Third and 16, Nix scrambled for three. Wil Lutz kicked a 31-yard field goal. 21 to 10. Denver lost 31 to 10 at Arrowhead on Monday night, never led, and by the win probability model never had better than a 45 percent chance of winning.

Start with the offense, because there is no way around it. Denver gained a hundred 93 total yards, the fewest of any team in Week 1. A hundred 31 of them came through the air, also the fewest of any team in Week 1. On 32 pass plays the offense produced −14.4 expected points added — expected points added is what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, so that is 14 points of value the passing game gave back relative to what those situations were already worth. Thirtieth of 32 this week; only Atlanta and Indianapolis were worse. Four sacks taken. One touchdown, Nix deep left to Evan Engram for 19 yards in the first quarter, and that was also Denver's longest completion of the night. The first pass drive of the season ended with Mansoor Delane intercepting a deep ball for Sutton on third and 11, and Kansas City turned the short field into the game's first touchdown. For the comparison: at the rate this offense passed last season, when it was ninth in the league, 32 pass plays would have been worth about +3. On Monday, −14.

Third down is where the night lived. Two of 12. Only Cleveland converted at a worse rate this week, and Atlanta matched it. Six of the 12 needed seven yards or more, which is the passing game's fault before it is the third-down offense's. The two conversions both came in the first quarter — third and five to Bryant for eight on the touchdown drive, then third and one to Harvey for six on the drive after it. Every third down from there failed, including a third and one before the half that went as an incomplete pass to Jaylen Waddle. And there was the drive after the Chiefs went up 21 to seven: J.K. Dobbins ran for 17, four and four, third and two at the Kansas City 39, and a delay of game made it third and seven. Incomplete to Waddle. Then a second delay of game, in punt formation. Four three-and-outs on the night, six punts, and 46 offensive snaps to Kansas City's 64.

The run game was never given the chance to be an answer. 14 rush plays, which only Tennessee matched for fewest this week, 62 yards, no touchdowns. 29 percent of those plays were successful, 30-first of 32. Dobbins' 17-yarder was the only run of 10 or more.

The run defense is the paragraph that explains the score, and it is the one that contradicts everything this defense was last year. Kansas City ran 35 times for 224 yards and two touchdowns, and those plays were worth +12.8 expected points — on defense a big positive number is the bad direction. 30-first of 32 this week; only Carolina allowed more per play. At the rate this defense allowed runs last season, the same 35 plays would have been worth about −1 and a half. The night turned on two of them. Fourth and one at the Kansas City 40, 12 53 left in the third, Chiefs up 14 to seven: three linemen reported as eligible, Kenneth Walker went around left end for 60 yards and the touchdown. 11 points of win probability on one play. And on the half's deciding drive, tied at seven, Walker went around left end for 28 to the Denver 41, on the way to Rashee Rice's 13-yard touchdown with a minute 46 left before the break. The Chiefs also converted four of five third downs of two yards or fewer, and both of their fourth-down tries.

The pass defense held up, and that is worth saying because the score hides it. 29 Kansas City pass plays were worth −2.3 expected points, twelfth-best in the league this week per play. A hundred 84 yards allowed, and 84 of them came on two throws — Travis Kelce for 59 on third and six, Emmett Johnson for 25 on third and five. The other 13 completions went for a hundred yards. Zach Allen sacked Mahomes twice, and the first of them, on third and five from the Denver five, turned a trip to the four-yard line into a 28-yard field goal. Jones' interception was the defense's one takeaway. The third-down defense was the weaker half of it: Kansas City converted nine of 16, and the Broncos' stop rate ranked 20-sixth this week.

The last real chance came with the ball at the Denver 29, down 21, four 41 left: fourth and eight, Nix deep left for Troy Franklin, incomplete. Kansas City ran the clock from there.

Now the part where a Week 1 episode has to be honest about what it is. There is no season to compare this to yet, so the comparison is last year, and last year this was a 14-three team that won the division, beat the Chiefs twice — 22 19 20 to 13, allowing them 62 82 rushing yards — and played into the conference championship game. Its pass defense finished sixth in the league, its run defense tenth, its passing offense ninth. On Monday the pass defense was twelfth, the run defense 30-first, the passing offense thirtieth. One game does not undo a 14-win season, and it came against a team that went six and 11. But a week that disagrees with the prior this loudly is the one to take seriously. The question for the next few weeks is not whether Denver is good; it is whether the run defense and the passing game were a Monday or a change.

Denver hosts Jacksonville next Sunday afternoon at Empower Field. Watch the run defense first, and watch what down and distance the offense is living on.

That's your Broncos — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Broncos show wherever you're listening, so next week's recap lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

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_Data via nflverse._