Broncos 20, Jaguars 13 — Week 2: Down Ten, Then Seventeen Straight

Second and goal at the Jacksonville seven, 11 53 left in the fourth quarter, Denver down 13 to six. Bo Nix threw short right to tight end Nate Adkins for seven yards and the touchdown. +16 points of win probability, the biggest swing of the game, and Wil Lutz's extra point tied it at 13. The drive covered 64 yards in 10 plays, it started with a Riley Moss interception, and it stayed alive on third and seven at the Jacksonville 31 when Nix found Jaylen Waddle over the middle for 14. Denver had trailed since early in the second quarter. It had been down 13 to three, and in the third quarter the win probability model had it at 15 percent. It scored the last 17 points and won 20 to 13. And it did it with the passing game, six days after that passing game was the biggest reason Denver gained the fewest yards in the league.

Start there. 288 passing yards. Of the 28 teams that have played so far this week, only Houston and Detroit threw for more. On Monday night in Kansas City, Denver threw for a hundred 31, the fewest in the league in Week 1. By expected points added, which is what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth, Sunday's 31 pass plays produced +8.4, ninth so far this week. Last week, 32 pass plays produced −14.4, thirtieth of 32. At the rate this offense passed last season, when it ranked ninth, Sunday's 31 plays would have been worth about +2.6. Denver took four sacks in Kansas City and none on Sunday. Five completions went for 20 yards or more. And it built as the game went: 16 first-half pass plays came out at −0.3, dragged down by one interception, and the 15 after halftime were worth +8.8.

The reason it took until the fourth quarter is the red zone. Denver ran 11 snaps inside the 20 and the first six produced three points. Down seven to nothing in the second quarter, first and 10 at midfield, Nix went deep middle to Waddle for 49 yards, down to the one. +13 points of win probability. Then J.K. Dobbins ran three times from the one, the second with an extra lineman reported as eligible: no gain, no gain, −1. Lutz kicked a 20-yarder. The next drive reached first and goal at the nine on a 20-yard throw to Waddle and back-to-back 27-yarders to Tyler Badie and Troy Franklin. Incomplete, a one-yard run, and on third and goal from the eight, with two 15 left in the half, Nix threw deep left for Courtland Sutton and Jourdan Lewis intercepted it in the end zone. −15 points of win probability, the worst play Denver's offense ran all day, and Jacksonville used the time to kick a field goal and lead 10 to three at the break. The last five red-zone snaps produced two touchdowns.

The go-ahead score was a gift Denver was in position to take. Jacksonville missed a 54-yard field goal with nine 45 left, and Denver took over at its own 44. On second and 10 Nix threw deep right for Sutton, incomplete, but Jacksonville's Travis Hunter was flagged for 22 yards of pass interference and an unsportsmanlike conduct flag was tacked on. First and goal at the three. Jonah Coleman ran right tackle for the touchdown with seven 24 left, and that was Denver's first lead of the game. It led for the final seven minutes and nothing before them. The closing drive: four 41 left at its own 20, third and three at the 27, Nix deep right to Waddle for 29. Four Coleman runs followed, two of them for 12 yards, then three kneel-downs. Jacksonville never got the ball back.

Third down tells the same two-part story. Four of 10, middle of the pack among the 28 teams so far this week, up from two of 12 in Kansas City. Denver missed its first three, all in a first quarter that went punt, punt, punt. Three of the four conversions were throws to Waddle, for 16, 14 29, and all three came after halftime.

The run game was useful without being the reason. 25 rush plays, a hundred seven yards, and a 44 percent success rate, the share of snaps that kept the offense on schedule, eighth so far this week. Last week it was 14 rush plays and 29 percent. The expected points came out at −1.5, ninth so far this week, and the three runs from the one cost about 3.4 by themselves. 32 yards before halftime, 75 after.

The run defense needs the careful version. Last week Kansas City ran for 224 yards and +12.8 expected points, and Denver ranked 30-first of 32. On Sunday Jacksonville's 24 rush plays gained 95 yards, and 17 of the 24 gained three or fewer. That is the improvement. But those plays were still worth +1.5, 20-second of the 28 teams so far this week, and on defense a positive number is the bad direction. The value leaked in the spots that matter most: Jacksonville went three for three running on third and one or two, scored from the one on a direct snap to Bhayshul Tuten, and converted a third and four with a nine-yard Tuten run on the way to a field goal. At the rate this defense allowed runs last season, 24 plays would have been worth about −1.

The pass defense was last year's. 31 Jacksonville pass plays, −4.1 expected points, seventh so far this week, against a passing game that led the whole league in Week 1. A hundred 89 yards, no touchdown passes. Last season's rate, sixth in the league, would have made those plays worth about −3.6. After halftime Jacksonville's 12 pass plays were worth about −4 and a half, and on third downs needing seven or more the Jaguars converted one of six. Que Robinson's 11-yard sack on second and seven at the Denver 47 turned a first-quarter drive into third and 18 and a punt. It could have been more. Denver had 10 accepted penalties for 53 yards, and two of those flags, both illegal contact, erased sacks: a Nik Bonitto strip sack that Alex Singleton had recovered and returned to the Jacksonville 21 in the first quarter, and a sack split by Zach Allen and Jonah Elliss in the fourth. On third down the defense got seven stops in 12 tries, middle of the pack so far this week; last season it was second in the league.

Now the thread, from the top for anyone new. Last season Denver went 14 three with the ninth-ranked passing offense, the sixth-ranked pass defense and the tenth-ranked run defense by expected points per play. Week 1 disagreed with all of it except the pass defense: a 31 to 10 loss in Kansas City, thirtieth in passing, 30-first against the run, last in the league in total yards with a hundred 93. Week 2 had 395, fourth of the 28 teams that have played, with the passing game ninth and the pass defense seventh, against a Jacksonville defense that ranked third against the pass last season and fifth last week. So the passing game now has one game on each side of last year's level. The run defense has one bad game and one mixed one. Two games do not settle either, but the louder alarm from Monday night got the better answer.

Denver hosts the Rams next Sunday night. Watch what happens inside the 10, and watch whether the run defense turns fewer yards into fewer first downs.

That's your Broncos — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Broncos show wherever you're listening, so next week's recap lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

And if you play fantasy, there's a Muffed show built around your exact roster — free at muffed.ai.

_Data via nflverse._