Broncos 30, Rams 26 — Week 3: Thirty Points After Halftime

First and goal at the Rams two, 56 seconds left, Denver down 26 to 23. Bo Nix threw incomplete for Nate Adkins. On second down Nix went around right end and was ruled in, and replay put the ball at the one. After an encroachment flag on the Rams, on third and one, Nix went up the middle for the touchdown with 48 seconds left. 20 points of win probability on one snap — win probability being the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment. Denver beat the Rams 30 to 26 on Sunday night at home, after trailing 16 to nothing at halftime, and after the model had it at nine percent when its first drive of the third quarter ended in a punt. And it won while being outgained 482 net yards to 257. 225 yards is the widest margin by which any team has been outgained and still won in the 47 games played so far this season.

Start with the pass defense, because it explains how that happens. 57 Rams pass plays — that count includes sacks — and 366 net passing yards allowed, more than any of the 30 teams that have played this week except Washington. But by expected points added, what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth, those 57 plays came to −1.1 — on defense a negative number is the good direction — fourteenth of the 30. Six snaps carried it: two interceptions and four sacks took 17.8 expected points off the Rams, and their other 51 pass plays were worth +16.7. At the rate this defense allowed over the first two weeks, 57 plays would have been worth about −6; at last season's rate, when it was a top-10 pass defense, about −6 and a half. So the total was worse than either baseline, and the game turned on the six. Third and six at the Denver 38, five oh one left, Rams up 19 to 16: Talanoa Hufanga intercepted Matthew Stafford's short throw at the Denver 34 and returned it 66 yards for the touchdown. −9.3 expected points for the Rams, and the model went from 80 percent Rams to 27 — 53 points of win probability, the biggest swing of the night. Earlier in the quarter, at 16 all, Hufanga's 10-yard sack on third and five from the Denver 20 turned a Rams drive into a 48-yard field goal. And the last play of the game: second and 15 from the Denver 19, two seconds left, Stafford deep right for Davante Adams, intercepted by Hufanga in the end zone.

The run defense is the unit that has not come around. 23 Rams rush plays, a hundred 16 yards, +2.3 expected points — on defense a positive number is the bad direction — 20-sixth of the 30 teams per play so far this week. At the rate this defense allowed over the first two weeks, those carries would have been worth about +5 and a half, so it was better than that; at last season's rate, when it ranked in the top 12, about −1. Most of the yardage came early: 13 Rams rush plays for 87 yards in the first half, including Kyren Williams up the middle for 30 from the Rams 33 with one 19 left in the first quarter. After halftime, 10 for 29.

The passing game opens on the split. In the first half Denver's 13 pass plays gained 46 net yards, and the whole offense ran 21 plays for 67 yards, punted three times, missed a 43-yard field goal off the left upright and did not score. After halftime, 22 pass plays gained a hundred 33. For the game, 35 pass plays — two-point tries not counted — were worth −3.2 expected points, eighteenth of the 30 teams that have played this week per play, with a hundred 79 net passing yards, and 37 percent of them were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. That is close to the rate of the first two weeks, at which 35 plays would have been worth about −3.3; at last season's rate, when it ranked tenth, about +2.8. The touchdowns came on third and goal from the five, Nix to Pat Bryant with seven 50 left in the third, and second and goal from the eight, Nix to Adkins with two 19 left, and both two-point tries were completions, to Jaylen Waddle and then to Bryant. That is how 16 to nothing became 16 all. The costliest snap was at 16 all early in the fourth: second and 14 at the Rams 48, Nix short left for Courtland Sutton, intercepted by Josh Wallace and returned to the Denver 37, −5.3 expected points and 16 points of win probability. The best set up the winner: second and 20 from the Denver 25 after a holding flag, three 26 left, down three, Nix short right to Bryant for 39 yards to the Rams 36, +2.9 expected points and 21 points of win probability.

That last drive also had help. On third and six from the Rams 11 with one 15 left, Nix's throw for Bryant was intercepted at the eight, and pass interference on the same play made it first and goal at the seven. On third and five from the five, an incompletion became first and goal at the two on an illegal-use-of-hands flag. Those two flags were worth about nine and 10 points of win probability. The Rams had 13 accepted penalties on the night, for 91 yards.

The run game gave Denver 78 yards on 25 rush plays and +0.6 expected points, eleventh of the 30 teams so far this week, though 15 of the 25 gained three or fewer. At the rate of the first two weeks those carries would have been worth about −1.9; at last season's rate, when this was a middle-of-the-league run game, about zero. Eight runs for 21 yards in the first half, 17 for 57 after. The bigger help was field position. The first touchdown drive started at the Rams 42 after a 28-yard punt return. The second started at the Denver 48, because an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on the Rams wiped out a punt Denver had muffed and recovered at its own 15, and the re-punt came from the Rams 12.

Third down was seven of 13, 54 percent, eighth of the 30 teams so far this week, and four of six on third and one or two. 10 drives: three touchdowns, five punts, the missed field goal and the interception, with four three-and-outs among them.

For anyone new to this show, here is where that sits. Last season Denver went 14 three with a passing game that ranked tenth by expected points per play, a top-10 pass defense, a run defense in the top 12 and the second-best third-down defense in the league. Week 1 was a 31 to 10 loss in Kansas City: the passing game ranked thirtieth of 32, the run defense 30-first, and a hundred 77 net yards was the fewest in the league that week. Week 2 was a 20 to 13 win over Jacksonville, with 395 net yards and the passing game eleventh. Sunday put the passing game back below the middle, eighteenth of the 30 teams so far this week, and the run defense ranked 20-sixth, after 30-first and 20-fourth of 32 in the first two weeks. Three games do not settle much. Denver is two and one, and the win it just got came from takeaways, both two-point tries and one fourth-quarter drive — not from the offense or the run defense getting back to last year.

Denver is at San Francisco next Sunday, October fourth.

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_Data via nflverse._